New view on antimissile defense. Gymnastic strategy

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The equipment of performance of exercises "lifting razgiby" is well familiar to gymnasts. To reach filigree execution, it is necessary, first of all, to learn to own a body faultlessly … The situation round system of the antimissile defense, inspired by the USA and accepted by Russia as a whole, just also reminds such exercise. Everything began with visit to Kiev two weeks to volume of the Assistant Secretary of defense of the USA on the international security of Alexander Vershbou who hinted that Ukraine can become part of the updated early warning system of rocket start-up. Still before Washington notified the world that refuses plans for placement of objects of the national antimissile defense in Poland and the Czech Republic. Vershbou's statement instantly became sensation. Partly because commentators didn't work to penetrate into details of a question and dared to interpret words of the American official moderately the personal understanding of a problem. Not in the best way just appointed head of diplomatic department of Ukraine Pyotr Poroshenko caused a stir even, having declared "illegality and illegality" placements of objects of missile defense in the territory of Ukraine. Obviously, the newly made diplomat had nobody to prompt that anybody and isn't going to place anything in the territory of Ukraine. As a result of the distorted representation of a situation of - well Vershbou even was necessary to give additional explanations...

The problem of new missile defense became one of the central themes and the Moscow negotiations of the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton with the Russian president Dmitry Medvedev and the Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Sounded this week madam Clinton the idea of cooperation with the Russian Federation on missile defense became official reflection of new approaches of the American administration to the solution of this problem. However, the updated vision in many respects leans on initiatives of biennial prescription. The old, a little forgotten version of development of cooperation in the form of creation of the joint center of data exchange emerged on a surface even.The head of the American foreign policy department declared that the United States "want to have a joint program of antimissile defense which will protect both our people, and the people of Russia, and the European friends and allies". S. Lavrov was more careful in statements, having noted that dialogue on missile defense proceeds, and Russia expects to receive more detailed information of rather American antimissile plans.

Key nuance

But also before visit H. Clinton analysts noted that inclusion of Ukraine in the list of the countries for cooperation on missile defense speaks not about possible emergence in the territory of Ukraine of the American radar or rockets, and about the potential of use of military good available for Ukraine. In particular, first of all the speech can go about SPRN modernization in Sevastopol. The project of use of the interconnected system of the radar located in Russia, Azerbaijan and in Ukraine, was offered by Russia in 2007 and will reject Bush's administration.

Today the very many started talking that in the USA there was a noticeable transformation of views concerning counteraction to missile threat. If earlier Washington to business of creation of NPRO didn't admit anybody, nowadays almost openly speaks about intention to connect partners in NATO and Russia. If this is so, in fact, is a question not of the national project of the United States, and of missile defense system creation on the European TVD, of formation notorious, it is a lot of years discussed "new architecture of the European safety". That it not NPRO built on a bilateral basis, and wider and open system, week to that unambiguously specified also the Deputy Secretary of State of the USA concerning control of Ellen Tosher's arms. The present administration of the American president especially emphasizes interest in cooperation with Russia in the field of missile defense, and the mention of SPRN use in Gabale and Armavir testifies to game on rapprochement, instead of confrontation growth. Thus, expansion of the project can receive outlines not simply new bridge of friendship of Washington with Moscow, but the bridge of friendship built through Kiev. For the last it is especially important, considering cold in the relations with the neighbor.

But it is not all potential opportunities of the project. Recently Barack Obama declared revision by Washington of the approaches to placement of elements of missile defense system in Europe.And his Minister of War Robert Gates right there added that the USA don't refuse missile defense in Europe and plan to place its elements by the fighting ships in the South and the North of Europe. In particular, creation of a new antimissile board will move ahead in some stages. At first by the ships equipped with Aegis - first-ever operating sea system of defense, - SM-3 interceptor missiles will be placed. There is one curious detail: potential trajectories of flights of the Iranian ballistic missiles directed on Europe, have to pass just through the water area of the Black Sea. At the same time, according to the convention of Montreux, since 1936 the ships of the countries of not Black Sea pool can't constantly be in the water area (it determined term in three weeks). Here - that really great opportunities for Ukraine also open. In particular, the Ukrainian experts in the field of military shipbuilding claim that there is not so fantastic possibility of placement of a sea antimissile platform in the Black Sea at the expense of the unfinished Moscow guided missile cruiser. Certainly, special relevance is gained by involvement in the project of Russia and NATO countries. We will remind that not recovered "the murderer of aircraft carriers" is two decades on one of the Nikolaev shipyards, having scanty prospect of realization in the foreign weapon markets. And though for the United States there is a hypothetical possibility of use for the project of the military ship of one from the Black Sea countries of the alliance, the uniting moment of involvement of the Ukrainian cruiser for Ukraine, Russia and Europe it is difficult to overestimate. And the cruiser is almost constructed - experts estimate level of its readiness of 94 - 95%. On it there are no arms systems, for example, naval system of air defense and a shock complex of cruise missiles. Instead of them it would be possible to place systems for destruction of rockets. Experts already noted that the adapted American Aegis system quite would approach under the solution of such task. Moreover, in the long term Aegis can turn into universal system - from rocket interception of ballistic missiles by range to 500 km before destruction of low-space devices at the heights up to 300 km. However, there are the technical problems connected as experts noticed, with electromagnetic incompatibility of various generation. But these problems are objectively solved and can't serve as an insuperable barrier. As for the question price, anyway it will appear less, than construction of a new sea platform.And a trump here that an existing platform - the Ukrainian origin: there is a real chance and to solve a problem of creation of missile defense, and to unite partners who belong to each other, to put it mildly, watchfully. Experts add to it that Ukraine has possibilities of an assessment of the American missile defense systems and their elements up to creation at capacities of the Ukrainian enterprises of rockets - targets. Here also it wouldn't be avoided without consultations with Russian or maybe participations of the Russian Federation as specific technologies of rocket production are considered as the general inheritance.

American transformation of views and Ukrainian prospect

Whether obstacles in a way of modernization of SPRN and the ship are possible? Theoretically and. In case the economy is above policy. Expenses of Ukraine on requirements of defense still at that deplorable level when about a contribution to global projects in the field of safety against the conditional solution of problems of safety national insolvency of the partner can predetermine reflections. Or to set up a mine of the slowed-down action in common cause. Even at a preliminary stage of discussion of a question diplomats of the western embassies speak about desire to see in Ukraine first of all the predictable and consecutive partner. At the same time, if to take a detached view of a problem of big-time politics and possession prospects new technologies, costs of creation of missing links won't seem so the enormous. Negotiations on a potential contribution of the European participants of NATO wouldn't prevent also. Especially as in an asset there is also an experience of joint projects with the USA and Russia - in the same "Sea start" (Sea Launch). As for Russia, experts note possibility of creation of system of the exchange of information received from land and space warning facilities. As a whole implementation of such project bears concrete prospect and for a number of defense industry enterprises which could participate in platform modernization - from deliveries of means of a hydrolocation before creation of the sea version of system of passive radio-electronic investigation "Chain armor".

Whether such fantastic plot, how full-fledged friendship of Washington, Moscow and Kiev, created thanks to the real or invented intrigues of irreconcilable Iran can be realized really? Or it only game? Here it is useful to remember that the offer of Russia to the United States together to use Gabalinsky RLS instead of creation of the NPRO elements in Europe together with a consent of Azerbaijan two years to that caused sharp reaction of deputies of parliament of Iran. It is curious that one of members of national committee of safety and the international relations of parliament of Iran regarded V. Putin's proposal simply as desire to play a trick on J. Bush's policy. According to him, Russia is perfectly informed that the aspiration of America to construct an antimissile board in Europe isn't directed against Iran. Why now the relation to the Iranian threat so strongly became stronger in the heads of the American power? For example, a detail in statements of the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Moscow the mention that the world can't "expect indefinitely creation by Iran of the nuclear weapon" became rather interesting. Whether not therefore, what for implementation of large-scale defensive projects of the USA always have to have clear threat for the American inhabitants? And such "humanized" approach at all doesn't contradict reduction of aggression of the American foreign policy. And as though confirms justice of award to the president Obama of the Nobel Prize.

And all - the destiny of this project depends on where it will be developed. Today it is necessary to recognize that creation of new forms of cooperation against vague, not until the end of the counted threats is favorable to all parties. To the United States being at a stage of political and economic transformation and accumulating resources for an exit from an economic crisis. Russia which has begun active approach to spheres of the former interest, but having problem with support of notorious international community. To Europe choking with the American leadership, but still regional security not holding out to autonomous providing. To Ukraine which political leaders got confused for and means. The respite is important to all players - both big, and small. In this sense the project of joint missile defense on the European TVD could become a good constructive pause in the solution of the arisen problem of reformatting of a geostrategic map of the world.It means that in the face of the increased semi-mythical missile threats the efforts directed on counteraction each other, will be for a while frozen. Before end of a regrouping of forces. Because, we will risk to assume, the USA won't be able silently to look at transition of Ukraine to a waterway of the pro-Russian foreign policy. And Russia never will release Ukraine, she intends to revive the empire, and without Ukraine it is impossible.

As for Ukraine, change of a background of threats is extremely favorable to Kiev. It isn't excluded that existence of questions to authors of the American project whom the Russian officials upon termination of visit H. Clinton declared, participation of Ukraine in it concern also. And though emergence of the American rockets a priori doesn't shine Ukraine, voyenno - political catches in the form of sea platforms and the modernized radar of the notification about rocket attack can grow under known conditions to new model of political cooperation. So, to keep and, probably, to develop much stained international reputation of the state. And also that is even more important, to find growth points in development of the relations with Russia.


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