Today to me it is obvious that the Russian invasion into Georgia was in advance planned, and the final political decision to finish preparation and to begin war in August, seemingly, was accepted in April.
To Moscow intolerably to reconcile with that malicious Saakashvili and remains in power in Tibilisi
And Ossetians intentionally provoked the Georgian, and any answer, rigid or soft, would be used as a reason for attack. And if Georgians suffered resignedly, Abkhazians would begin, as now, long ago the prepared operation on "cleaning" of the top part of the Kodorsky gorge. If war is planned, the pretext always will be.
By August the considerable part of the ships of the Black Sea fleet was ready to a long fighting exit, part of constant readiness of Land forces, airborne forces and marines were ready to promotion, and during the doctrines "Caucasus-2008" which ended on August 2, one week prior to war, forces of the Air Force, the Navy and army finished on the district at the Georgian border the last check of readiness. At the same time by the beginning of August Railway armies in Abkhazia finished repair of railway ways on which this week tanks, heavy machinery and supply subjects for approximately 10-thousand group which has intruded for no reason at all or the formal reason in the Western Georgia were thrown to Inguri. Naturally, for any "it is national - the economic purposes" as Moscow officially declared, urgently repaired railroad wasn't used. The state propaganda device also carried out preparation, processing the under control population constant messages on inevitable Georgian attack and that behind it there are USA and the West to which this conflict was absolutely not necessary.
Naturally, it is impossible to keep armies and fleet in 24-hour readiness for promotion infinitely. In October weather will deteriorate, snow will close passes of Greater Caucasus Range. Therefore the second half of August was a deadline of the beginning of full-scale war with Georgia.
In April at NATO summit in Bucharest in which Putin took personal part, it became clear that accession of Georgia and Ukraine to alliance though while the decision is postponed, inevitably. The Russian civil and military chiefs honestly warned both the West, and the authorities in Tbilisi and in Kiev that attempts "tightenings in NATO" (according to our diplomats) the countries which in Moscow consider as a traditional ancestral lands, will lead to crisis. It was declared that Russia "by all means" won't allow the entry of Georgia into NATO, but on Mikheil Saakashvili it didn't work. Then events began to develop with an accruing speed.
Putin charged to the government "to develop measures for rendering the subject help" Abkhazia and South Ossetia that legally denied the state sovereignty of Georgia. Then the Russian fighter brought down the Georgian UAV in the sky of Abkhazia. Military units were entered into Abkhazia under the guise of peacekeepers with the heavy offensive weapon, then - railway armies. A series of maneuvers, invasions of the Russian warplanes into the Georgian sky, the actual refusal of diplomatic settlement of the conflict under cover-ups and at last war which had to exempt finally Abkhazia and South Ossetia from the Georgian population, Tbilisi - from Saakashvili, and Transcaucasia - from NATO and Americans followed. In principle Moscow even is ready to keep formally territorial integrity of Georgia in the form of a certain confederation and to give the chance to Georgians to choose democratically to itself as the president of any whom, it is desirable, will approve and in Moscow.
In the same way the Russian management prepared in 99 - m invasion into Chechnya. Then even in the early spring, under the certificate of the former prime minister Sergey Stepashin, the basic decision to begin war in August - September was made. All summer there was an engineering and other preparation for expansion of shock groups. Then Putin and his team restored territorial integrity of the Russian Federation, today, seemingly, undertook former Soviet Union forming.
In 99 - m invasion of the Chechen fighters into Dagestan became a pretext to war, but its unexpected initial success led to crisis and to Stepashin's replacement with Putin. Today Saakashvili's unexpectedly powerful blow - instant defeat of the Ossetian formations - too seriously spoiled game. Moscow any more had no opportunity to pretend to be that it supposedly brave Ossetians battle to Saakashvili's mode, and ours only try to part the parties, to establish the world and only for this purpose enter armies.It was necessary to begin barefaced invasion, to sustain losses and to undergo the western pressure, impossible for the Russian bureaucracy integrated into a world financial system.
Armies should be sent in fight by rather small groups. In the Roksky tunnel (6 km long) which from - for narrowness can be used peremenno only for one-way traffic, on the road to Dzhava and to Tskhinvali there were terrible jams. Constantly the outdated, shabby Russian equipment broke. Export wounded and civil, approach of volunteers absolutely not necessary in this situation - everything led to crisis terrible and proceeding today with supply, and the advanced rather small forces should be thrown into fight from wheels in parts.
Put forward to Tskhinvali on August 8 perfect parts, including special troops of the airborne forces, nearly two days couldn't beat out the Georgian from the city, despite massive use of artillery, tanks and fighting aircraft. Even the commander 58-й armies of the general Anatoly Hrulev who went on a front line to bring an order, Georgians wounded. The Georgian active armed forces left Tskhinvali, only obeying the order of the political management. The deputy chief of the General Staff Anatoly Nogovitsyn recognized that armed forces of Georgia not that lost war to separatists 15 years ago: "At the moment it is the modern, well mobilized group equipped with the modern weapon".
After an exit from Tskhinkvali the Georgian armies continued retreat. By August 11 almost all army was concentrated round Tbilisi. By then in the territory of Georgia, including Ossetia and Abkhazia, about 20 thousand our soldiers were put forward. Advance parties approached to Burn, occupied Zugdidi, entered Senaki and destroyed there the Georgian military base. The advanced investigation was included to the port city of Poti. The Georgian armies almost everywhere receded, without being got involved in fights. The Russian armies far came off bases of supply, it isn't enough of them for successful occupation, their movement across Georgia lost sense and only order to further losses in equipment from - for continuous breakages. Having ordered to recede, the Georgian management kept regular army which lightning defeat the Ossetian lifted the prestige in society. Having kept army, Saakashvili kept as it seems to him, uniform Georgia and at the same time a basis of own mode and to deal with the Russian invasion it provided to the western leaders and diplomats.
The Georgian people lived all the history on a joint of conflicting world empires and learned such flexibility in questions of a survival and use of one strong opponents against others that to ours didn't dream. Only it seems to some present Russian heads that they act, as Stalin.
The destroyed military bases and other infrastructure will be restored on the western money, and thus still there will be new workplaces. The broken radar and the weapon will replace new and the best. At this Saakashvili successfully I solved the main strategic objective - finally I internationalized the Ossetian and Abkhazian problems that finally can lead to consecutive replacement of Russia and decrease in its influence in the region. At the end of June in Tbilisi the French ambassador in Georgia Eric Fornye declared in the presence of the correspondent "Nova": "The international community doesn't consider Abkhazia and Ossetia as a serious problem. We have Iran, Afghanistan, Sudan, Lebanon, Iraq. Anybody in Brussels doesn't consider possibility of expansion of the international peacekeeping forces in the region. EU all the same has no excess soldiers for a similar unimportant question. It in general put Russians, Russia the key player in the region".
Now everything was cardinally changed, the Russian invasion awakened Europe. The president of France Nicolas Sarkozy put forward the peace plan coordinated with allies on NATO and with Japan which provides unconditional ceasefire, return of all refugees, including to Abkhazia, a full conclusion of the Russian and Georgian armies from zones of the conflict and introduction of the international peacekeeping forces which will include also the Russian contingent. The former format of individual Russian peacemaking is more absolutely unacceptable for the West, our aggression crossed out everything. For simple people in the Caucasus, for the Ossetian, the Georgian, Abkhazians and other such outcome means the real world, safety, the huge foreign help for restoration and region development. For Russia it can mean voyenno - political defeat in result successful, it seems, invasions.
It is clear that straight off the French plan was rejected by our ambassador in the UN Vitaly Churkin as unacceptable, but then Moscow started maneuvering. Present Russia dependent on the West can speak much about the revived power, but in actual fact leaves a little differently.Business not only that the old equipment constantly breaks, and Georgians are capable to force down our supersonic strategic bombers. All Russian leaders as from fraction of "security officers", and "liberals" - in fact businessmen - billionaires, their personal interests are connected with the West, with exchange quotations, their main political goal - "modernization of Russia", and invasion into Georgia ruins all of them today and obviously threatens still with big troubles in the future. Keeping possibility of integration of Russia with the West, on Tuesday the president Dmitry Medvedev declared "the termination of operation on coercion to the world in South Ossetia". According to Nogovitsin, it means ceasefire.
But anything it isn't terminated yet. In Moscow still hope to displace Saakashvili though it hardly leaves, and any his receiver, for example the exile Irakli Okruashvili with whom Saakashvili publicly reconciled, it won't be better. The conflict is complicated, probably, by personal strong hostility between Saakashvili and Putin. In Tbilisi in diplomatic and political circles say that Saakashvili scornfully at witnesses responded about "Kremlin". At Saakashvili's personal meeting I told me and I allowed to print that heard about these hearings, but such I didn't tell anything, and "it is all provocations of the Russian intelligence services".
Intolerably to reconcile with that malicious Saakashvili who brought Georgia out of the CIS, declared Abkhazia and South Ossetia officially occupied territories with which our heads can't compete in public street policy, and remains in power in Tbilisi. In the prikremlevskikh circles demand to create special international tribunal for crimes in the Caucasus. ("The new newspaper", by the way, considers it necessary provided that investigation will mention all parties of the conflict. - P. F. ) However even if the similar tribunal will be suddenly created though already there is the International criminal court engaged in war crimes, its jurisdiction to extend and on Russian voyenno - the political management which can appear first of all under blow for last affairs in the North Caucasus and for present. Time the founded, International tribunal won't depend on the Russian authorities, and will be guided by the right.
On an attestation of eyewitnesses, on the territory of Georgia the rocket crew 58-й armies - systems of volley Hurricane fire (RSZO) and the ballistic missiles "Point — At" is entered through the Roksky tunnel.RSZO "Hail" systems (caliber of 122 mm) are very little effective at blows to the cities and to the dug round armies, unlike much more powerful "Hurricane" (220 mm). From the district of Tskhinvali "the Point - At" (radius of 110 km) can strike Tbilisi and surrounding areas. Fugasno - the fragmental warhead "Points — At" covers three hectares, cassette - 7.
RSZO "Hurricane" and Point — At rockets were in large quantities applied to attack of Chechnya in 1999 and 2000 that led to mass death of civilians and destructions. Last week rockets "Point — At" fired from Abkhazia the purposes in the Western Georgia. Start-up were registered by the American global system of tracking rocket start-up. The Abkhazian authorities declared that it they made start-up of ballistic missiles. Now ours can claim also that it is Ossetians (instead of 58-I army) strike blows to Tbilisi in revenge supposedly for Tskhinvali. Similar blows, undoubtedly, will cause a terrible panic in Tbilisi, and can still it will be possible to overthrow Saakashvili's mode.
Ceasefire will be very shaky until while Georgia won't include the foreign peacekeeping contingents.
"The new newspaper"