MAIDAN-2

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Source: uadaily.net

Political opposition which gains today strength, can quite pass into a form of street demonstrations. However it is unlikely it will terminate peacefully, as in 2004.

It is indicative that against serious disagreements any of participants of process doesn't use meetings as a form of political pressure. "The live chain" in the western Ukraine isn't counted is rather rehearsal. We will remind that else quite recently, on the eve of elections of 2007, street actions were one of the most widespread technologies.

It is clear that they worked poorly. However the main thing is that political actors had a will on their carrying out. Now meetings in Kiev aren't collected by anybody. It occurs not only because parties were undeceived in street democracy. It is rather on the contrary, they grant to the population "respite" subsequently to use this technology with bigger efficiency. Politicians want to shoot at once from a gun - the Maidan, without being exchanged on small and single in respect of efficiency, explosions of petards - veche and regional meetings.

For the Maidan-2 the occasion which would unite the people, any outstanding event is necessary. In 2004 Victor Yushchenko's poisoning became such catalyst. In 2009 attempt at Yulia Timoshenko or obvious threat of her arrest can become it. Only in that case BYuT will use this technology in full power.

Everything will depend on actions Bank. If there show activity in criminal case against Tymoshenko and will decide to raise it the actual rating, having at the same time removed from pre-election race, everything will be solved by itself.

If the Secretariat takes more moderate position, BYuT should create conditions for the Maidan. Inspiration of attempt at one of leaders of the nation can really become that idea which will cause "effect of a chain" when for the "paid" participants activists will be tightened.

Essential difference of the Maidan-2 from its sample of 2004 undoubtedly becomes reaction of the authorities. Victor Yushchenko is at all Leonid Kuchma who wanted quietly and without blood to retire. Against protesters force can be quite used.Thus on Bank will appeal to the European experience, and to speak about collisions in Hungary and France. Performers will be enough. It is worth remembering, for example, Geletey's dog devotion.

Such option is almost inevitable if the slightest reason is given at least: capture of establishments, blocking of means of communication, etc. And the probability of such succession of events is high. After all to BYuT "power outcome" it is also favorable. From Victor Yushchenko in 2009 will "mould" the dictator. "The power option" successions of events will lay down in this image outline as native.

Thus, the Maidan-2 should be expected closer to presidential election. It will strikingly differ from the predecessor. First of all, the character. Unfortunately, or fortunately, but peace revolution in Ukraine any more won't be never.


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