In views of consequences of the financial crisis which has covered Ukraine, experts are absolutely ambiguous. According to one, we promptly became history. And, at once in "times of troubles".
Mass unemployment, freezing of salaries, unpaid holiday, loss of savings in bankrupt banks, lack of the credits for the most necessary needs …
And it not the fullest list of "delights" of this crisis.
Others, on the contrary, observe also the light party in the events. Economy recession is followed steadily by growth, and the successful businessmen having adequately accumulation, will be able soon "on cheap stuff" to buy up everything. And if you incidentally didn't get to this category, don't despair.
With freezing of delivery of the credits to the population on streets less cars which unfledged youths operate become undoubted, so - you have rather quite good chance not to get them under wheels.
But, the main thing that now Ukraine with advantage can show to the whole world - existence of financial disorders confirms full integration into world economic community. To what so persistently us conducted both the President, and the Prime minister - the minister with the political forces.
- However no evil intention of the top management of our country in this crisis is present, the director of "Agency of perspective financial technologies" Vladimir Evseev claims.
The only distinction in Nikolaev (unlike the East of Ukraine) consists in course of destructive processes, in his opinion, in lack of mass unemployment. But this "pleasure" already closely will come nearer to us soon.
That is characteristic, practically all experts of the bank sphere and experts of the financial markets unanimously claim about full-fledged feeling of crisis in Nikolaev on the eve of New Year, or right after its grand and magnificent welcome. And, unemployment will concern not only bank workers, it will reach up to a services sector.
- Less the bank sphere works - indicators and in insurance campaigns decrease, car sale is less - the staff of managers and technicians on HUNDRED are reduced, mortgage lending is frozen - there is no scope of work at builders.And this logical row can be listed indefinitely, - Vladimir Evseev speaks.
Accepted in an emergency order National Bank of Ukraine of the directive and the order on a regulation of delivery of the credits bring turmoil in minds not only borrowers, but also bankers. The expert in financial questions claims that from head offices of all banks (and such in the Nikolaev area works more than 70) the accurate instruction to stop amateur performance and accurately to follow indications of the Center arrived.
And the main thing among such instructions: under anything not to give out the credits. And if it is clear why delivery of the credits under cars and business development, apparently, the safest type of crediting is now stopped, a mortgage, also will curtail till the best times.
Reliable reinforcement of the credit bankers explain the reason of unwillingness to perceive pledge in the form of the apartment or other housing as - as if with unreasonably exaggerated prices on "square meters". The problem is that after a while bank won't be able simply to sell mortgage housing at the declared cost.
Banks aren't going to incur in advance assumed losses.
No, completely banks won't refuse a mortgage, only the initial contribution will make from 30 to 50% of cost of housing, Vladimir Evseev considers. By the way, if you expect to take the credit on the security of real estate, but the land plot isn't privatized, give up hopes.
The bank now won't go for similar adventure. Also will refuse.
Unfortunately, the similar facts are already noted today repeatedly.
Staff of banks, the people who are directly rotating constantly in credit turmoil, see a bit different reasons of bank crisis in Ukraine.
- The dull policy on uncontrollable delivery of the unsecured credits, without guarantee and without insurance eventually led to that we have. The coefficient of the irrevocable credits at last exceeded all reasonable norms, it once had to occur. The science of America with its collapse didn't go for the future, - bank workers tell.
As they give an example the Nikolaev branch "Bank Index" in which NBU at the admission in 10% 78% of the so-called "problem" credits are recorded. That is, such which imply possibility of "combustion".
Because recently our people want them to return less and less.Among the staff of services of economic security of different Nikolaev banks similar the history can hear an infinite set. There are even "legends".
So in several banks told about a married couple of the business owner Irina M. on which in vessels of the city the complaints from not less than four banks are reviewed. And, as note in these banks, it is a question not of one credit and not for the small sums.
Schemes of actions of credit speculators are so improved for today that returns of the credits in services on return of bank means are inclined to carry to existing to "the decency scheme", according to which 50% of borrowers - people honest a priori. The following 25% - doubting.
That is, if to bother them, they will return money. The remained 25% - unambiguously unfamiliar with concepts of honesty and decency swindlers and speculators. They should face such humdrum of life daily. Bank "opera" in general are surprised that though someone returns money:
- Happens, already judicial performers with a judgment, and it come to a nose тычут the document on transfer, for example, the mother-in-law to the son-in-law in temporary usings of all people around it subjects. Reaches even underwear with socks.
And nothing can be proved, and it is impossible to take from it anything.
And they aren't afraid of vessels. As well as penalty fee.
Charge, speak, and we will look that with you in the near future becomes. Here you will go bankrupt, and we with the added penalty fee and will remain with the money.
However, the head of the Nikolaev office of National bank of Ukraine Mikhail Klimenko warns unreasonable borrowers against such step:
- You shouldn't count that will be forgotten about the credits. Even if the bank will pass through the sanitation procedure, all credits will be requested.
I was in the liquidating commission of Ukraine bank, so we returned the credits which weren't paid within 10 years.
Everything, according to Mikhail Klimenko, the credit portfolio of the Nikolaev area makes 8,7 billion UAH. And, practically on equal parts it shares on the credits of natural and legal entities.
Besides, unfair users of the bank credits like to disappear.
Or in long-term business trips, or leave on a constant place a residence to other cities and even the countries.
In most cases the staff of departments of safety of banks in the past - law enforcement officers. Therefore with understanding treat unwillingness of militia to bring criminal cases with obviously known result when business won't be opened. From here and continuous refusals in initiation of such criminal cases.
Also there is a practice of use of fictitious passports. Practice of the banks which are giving out the credits on documents, urged on newly-baked остапов bender to acquisition of cheaper (than the credits) passports at bums and their elementary fake.
Antidote the quick staff of departments of safety of banks opposes to similar swindles and frauds a secret database on unfair borrowers:
- I can make so that such person more than any kopek won't obtain the credits. We meet, share information, we take it into consideration. This information influences the decision of bank on issuance of credit.
There was a case when I at the request of dear people brought out of this list of the person.
Process is dragged out on three - four months, and without absolute guarantee.
At everything thus, the staff of banks estimates actions of the regional management at delivery of the "problem" credits not as irresponsible risk, and it is rather - as desire to get additional profit through registration doubtful in respect of return of the credits.
And it concerns not only natural persons. The same situation and with the enterprises. But here too there can be options. For example, last year the Nikolaev branch of Kievan Rus' bank granted the loan to "Scarlet sails" on the security of production. But besides, as experts of the bank sphere note, this phenomenon not single, but universal. All pursued profit and when there were "problem" credits, started giving out even more that to lead coefficient of admissible losses to norm. And it is a snowball.
So, forecasts of analysts of the financial market are unfavourable. All rates on the credits will steadily grow soon and if now heads of the enterprises are frightened declared, say, the Nikolaev office "Raiffeisen the Aval bank" by credit rates of 35%, soon and 50% will be perceived by the enterprises as good luck.
When it is necessary to pay off according to the severance pay with the mass of the reduced employees, not one director will remember unused offers of the "cheap" credits.Because today the market is entered by the so-called "gray" credits on which the rate makes 1% a day, i.e. - 365% per annum. And it - not predictions of fantasts, and the norm today, notes Vladimir Evseev.
The impossibility of updating of a credit line zernotorgovets became confirmation to his words. They paid off with banks, and here can't obtain the new credits.
Among a practical advice from the expert the following sounded:
- You shouldn't deal with banks which aren't included into the Association of the Ukrainian Banks (AUB). Any searcher on the Internet will show it to you. But even among them you look on a rating. If the bank is lower than 50 positions, messages with such establishment the financial operations it isn't recommended. It is desirable to keep all the assets in cash.
If deposits cease to give out even on deposit lines, it already collapse which isn't subject to any forecasts, experts speak. But such development of a situation isn't favorable to the state, and NBU will make everything to avoid such turn of events.
However we heard such statements and earlier.
P.S. Experts advise all the time "to trim the sails to the wind", that is to monitor trends in the bank sphere. And to keep under control a situation round itself. We will tell, in exchangers the dollar can be sold, and here to buy it turns out not always. Explanations are that that the currency adheres for issue of currency deposits. And after all we already passed all this.
The Nikolaev branch of "Privatbank" sharply reduced number of employees in supermarkets which were engaged in registration of the consumer credits. In "Ukrprombank" sharp reduction of offices and workers is noticed. Besides that NBU already opened refinancing of this bank under 15% per annum with a capture on the security of all property of bank in the territory of Ukraine. In general now in NBU there are already 25 demands from the Ukrainian banks on refinancing, and after all all and began with it in "Prominvestbank".
And how finally not to remember the word of the head of the Supervisory board of NBU Pyotr Poroshenko:
- Ukraine - the country of the credits. The credit portfolio makes 500 billion UAH. From them 300 billion UAH - the means attracted from deposits. Let's year live without import.
We will buy the Ukrainian production.
Interestingly, at 47% of foreign investments in the bank sphere, whether remained though something in this country exclusively Ukrainian?