Traditionally on the eve of new year we estimate the main lessons of year leaving and we try to glance in the future. It is possible to be guided, of course, by own feelings, after all each of us - too the member of society, but it is better to entrust the objective and impartial analysis of public moods to sociologists. Therefore results 2008-го years we asked to comment on the head of TsIOM "Nawal — the Expert" Leonida Beloconja.
- If to sum up political year and perception nikolayevets of political events in Ukraine and Nikolaev what it is possible to tell, based on results of studying of public opinion? How nikolayevets estimate the latest political events in Ukraine how their relation to political parties and their leaders changed?
- First of all, it should be noted deep disappointment of nikolayevets activity of all branches of the power.
More, of course, it concerns the central authorities. For example, such rating of the incumbent president as we recorded now, at the end of December (its activity slightly more than 2% of respondents approve), we didn't fix since December, 2004 when measured Leonid Kuchma's rating.
Evaluation of the work of the Verkhovna Rada (don't approve its activity of 86%, approve slightly more than 1%) are sharply negative also.
If to compare estimates of activity of the present government to evaluation of the work of the government of 2007 (Victor Yanukovych's government), they are opposite - the previous government has a balance of estimates positive (+19%) that in general a rarity, and at the present - negative (-58%).
In estimates of activity of local authorities the small negative balance, but trust level to them is higher, than to the central power.
It should be noted high level of awareness of the population about activity of political parties in the Verkhovna Rada, but about work of the same parties in city and regional councils level of awareness is much lower.Thus, irrespective of awareness level, the majority of nikolayevets are disappointed with activity of all political parties.
In distribution of electoral sympathies of nikolayevets at the end of 2008 there were essential shifts in comparison with 2007. Sharp decrease in its rating from 58% to 37% turned out to be consequence of a muffled opposition of Party of Regions. Inner-party Nunsovsky conflicts led this block to the actual self-destruction, and its rating decreased from 5,4% to 1,9%. A little ratings of BYuT, KPU and Litvin's block raised. Considerably the share of those who intends to vote against all grew or is at a loss with a choice. However, idea of early parliamentary elections, despite a negative assessment of activity of parliament, only 20% of respondents support.
But idea of early presidential election support more than a half of respondents. In a presidential rating is in the lead at us on - former Yanukovych with level of support of 25%, behind it Tymoshenko (12%), afterwards Litvin and Simonenko (on 5,6%) and Yatsenyuk (3,2%) closes the rating five. Wishing again to see in presidency of Victor Yushchenko it is a little - 2,8%. Anatoly Gritsenko who as well as Yatsenyuk is the new potential participant of the following presidential election, would gain about 2%.
Results of political year eyes of nikolayevets are that in brief.
- And how nikolayevets estimate an economic situation in the country, in what measure they were mentioned already by an economic crisis?
- TsIOM "Nawal — the Expert" in the end of the year is traditional asks nikolayevets about how they estimate results of last year for themselves personally and the family, for the enterprise at which work, for the city and the country as a whole.
I can tell: with a total minus we didn't fix such balance of positive and negative estimates since 1997-1998. Many say that 2008 began well, and here ended badly, and as a result it was unsuccessful - both for a family, and for the enterprise, both for the city, and for the country. Only 12% consider this year successful for the family, and 51% - unsuccessful; for the enterprises year was successful according to 8% of respondents and unsuccessful it is considered by 52%; for the city these figures respectively - 4% and 57%, and for Ukraine - 1% and 83%.
That especially afflicts, so it is nature of expectations for 2009. For all years of our supervision, as though hard wasn't to nikolayevets, they always had the optimistic New Year's expectations, which general keynote - "tomorrow it will be better, than yesterday".Such deep pessimism, such disturbing expectations as this time, we didn't fix never. Before, even, if our citizens assumed that in Ukraine as a whole affairs will go not really well, probably, even is worse, than in previous year, concerning the family and the enterprise there was a certain confidence in tomorrow.
The economy steadily developed in previous years, despite permanent political crisis. There was an impression that at us the economy doesn't depend on policy.
This year all not so. Utter darkness of our political future was imposed on global financially - an economic crisis.
- In what measure it touched nikolayevets and what most of all disturbs them?
At first sight, judging by results of poll, quality of life didn't decrease yet - habitual goods in shops are, the public transport functions, in houses warmly, interruptions in gas and electricity aren't present. But disturbing expectations are very strong, and they aren't groundless.
The situation at work (14%сообщили that transferred them to part-time, 6% dismissed from a primary place of employment) disturbs.
The situation with the income (28% reported that to them detained a salary, 24% - reduced a salary, 9% - didn't issue the deposit in bank, 22% - arose difficulties with repayment of the credits, 43% - decreased total income of a family) disturbs.
The situation with expenses (are concerned by a rise in prices for the main food of 96%, for drugs - 87%, on gas - 78%, on clothes and footwear - 74%) disturbs.
That fact testifies to high level of social tension also that a third of the population expresses readiness for participation in various protest actions if living conditions worsen further. In a bigger measure it is characteristic for people of advanced age, for pensioners.
Though a month more two this category of citizens had lower level of uneasiness that was explained by their confidence of receiving the guaranteed payments. They were sure that in time will receive pension, they got used to quite low consumption level and, probably, believed that their crisis if concerns, to a lesser extent.
Obviously now when we hear from TV screens that there can be problems and with the Pension fund, it very much excited them especially as already today 14% from them complain of a delay of pension payments.
- Today all ask questions what exactly served as the reason of global crisis and its Ukrainian projection and as long all this will proceed. What opinion of sociologists in this respect?
- That happens to all of us today is a crisis of a consumer society. At us society of mad, impetuous consumption was created in recent years. The liberal idea, being that the market will sort things out, during realization led to emergence of the wild, uncontrollable market and wild capitalism. Now we appeared in crisis of the wild market which coincided with blossoming of wild capitalism.
- That is us who are in a phase of wild capitalism, crisis of the developed capitalism overflowed. With that only a difference that we don't have, aren't created, not issued, protective mechanisms, "safety locks".
- Quite right, the financial earthquake began over the ocean, and we were covered by a financial tsunami. In China where the economy is adjustable, crisis practically wasn't shown. In any case, while. As for protective mechanisms, we really don't have them. I believe to create such mechanisms, the strong left-wing party and strong independent labor unions (not what board with oligarchs and arrange amusing meetings of a protest) is necessary.
What all of us, all mankind expects in the future? Here one of versions which isn't really optimistical, but is represented convincing. In the well-known Roman Club futurological researches in which indicators of growth of the population of a planet, production and consumption indicators and indicators of resources of a planet were compared were actively discussed about fifty years ago.
- Well-known concept of "gold billion"? Justification of what on all won't suffice everything?
- Not absolutely so, but the speech about limitation of resources. Futurologists then came to a conclusion: if tendencies of growth of the population, growth of outputs and resource depletion remain, within the next century the world will approach to growth limits. As a result unexpected and uncontrollable recession of population will begin and the output will sharply decrease.
And so, "the gold billion" felt today on itself that "the next century" and growth limits already came. Now the mankind has to reflect on passing to other concept of the existence - the self-restriction concept.
If to return to poll about which we spoke, and to that level of pessimism which it recorded, on the one hand, while, it seems, and there are no real bases for such pessimism, and on the other hand, the presentiment, expectation something bad often happens psychologically heavier than stay in a negative situation or process.
And here, in what to look for the bases for optimism is a question. Can to us it is worth learning to rejoice not to new things, and old - to the blue sky, the blue sea, a green grass … And not to forget to rejoice to New Year!