The population lost interest to dollar

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In March true demand for foreign currency decreased by 2,6 times, to 567 million dale. and the volume of sale of currency of NBU from reserves was reduced more than by a third.

Economists explain such dynamics with decrease in the income of the population and NBU actions, but stabilization of a situation can be temporary of - for need of banks to repay external debts, writes the edition "The businessman - Ukraine".

The excessive demand of the population for cash currency in March was sharply reduced. In comparison with February when natural persons bought dale on 1,4246 billion. it is more than foreign currency, than sold, in March true demand for cash currency fell by 2,6 times.

Thus, the negative balance in the cash market was reduced to 567 million dale. It occurred generally thanks to sharp reduction of volume of the currency bought by the population from banks, - on 702,2 million dale.

Nearly 36,6% of this sum the population bought at six NBU currency auctions for repayment of the currency credits - 254,5 million dale. and 1,8 million euros. It allowed NBU to reduce the volume of the sold currency in March by 37,7% - from 1,729 billion dale. in February to 1,077 billion dale. having satisfied currency needs of natural and legal entities for a proportion one to three.

Decrease in demand strengthened a cash hryvnia exchange rate for 2,2%, interbank - for 1,7%.

Experts explain decrease in demand for currency with reduction of the income of the population.

"In the fall people actively withdrew deposits from banks, their most part was transferred to foreign currency. From - for crisis at people the income decreased, and today they have already few free hryvnia for currency purchase, - the economist of the International center of perspective researches Alexander Zholud speaks.

NBU actions were effective also, bankers recognize.

"In March we see dollar rate fluctuation in a range of 8,2-8,4 UAH/dale. The National Bank started carrying out two times a week auctions on currency sale for support of natural persons who have the currency credits. These measures of NBU and stabilization in the market install confidence of the relation of a further hryvnia exchange rate, - the director of the department of treasury and financial institutions "Indeks - bank" Anton Boldyrev speaks.

However stabilization of a situation can be a temporary phenomenon, experts don't exclude.

"After sharp jumps of a course to from above 9th UAH/dale. The National Bank managed to extinguish in many respects panic moods of the population and to lower an excessive demand for hard currency thanks to application of administrative measures to banks, and also unexpectedly effective currency auctions, - the head of the analytical department of IK Phoenix Capital Dmitry Romanovich notes.

Romanovich also added that applied NBU administrative measures for artificial decrease in demand for currency from banks can play an evil joke. "Instead of gradual revaluation of hryvnia we can see again the next sharp jump of its devaluation, as in the II-III quarters at the Ukrainian banks rather difficult schedule of payments on external debts. In this case increase of demand for currency from the population is almost inevitable", - he added.


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