Who earns on currency hills

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In the last days of July in Ukraine once again there were currency hills. The dollar "suddenly" started growing in the non-cash market, immediately its growth was thrown on the cash market. One breakthrough "green" punched level of 8 hryvnias for dollar, surely went aside "9". At exchangers turns were built, there were forgotten partially "black" speculators in foreign currency … And also "suddenly" everything was rolled away back. Certainly, not to 7,7-7,8 hryvnias for dollar, slightly higher, but all-... What occurs in such days in the currency market if, according to many experts, any economic prerequisites for similar setups - kickbacks aren't present? Who earns on these "hills"?

Each time after the next breakthrough of dollar up - down state agencies in Ukraine try (or, at least, pretend that try) to find guilty and to do to them justice. And each time results of these checks cause only new questions.

We will tell, at the beginning of a year of SBU, the State Office of Public Prosecutor and National Bank also looked for currency speculators. Even, it seems, found. About 25 banks were checked, declared that the guilty are revealed. Guilty, as a result, three small banks were called "already": "Aktabank", "Daniel" and "Yuneksbank".

Any expert in the currency market has such results of "investigations" and searches of currency speculators can cause only a grin. Really to play currency "rallies" in the market, serious money is necessary, and to small banks such it is simple not in power. As they say, the gut is thin. The daily turn of the currency market of Ukraine makes at the moment about 100-200 million dollars. Respectively, really "to shift" a dollar rate, it is necessary to possess resources at the level of 150 or at least 100 million. Naturally, any of called "currency speculators" never such resources had.

Who then really shook dollar and received from it the "oil on a roll"?

Games with an exchange rate - the difficult and well debugged game where each participant carries out the role and receives the part of the income. Really only big banks which possess large supplies of currency and hryvnia can affect a dollar rate. At the same time, to big banks it is unprofitable to become to currency speculators. At least, for two reasons.In - the first, these games are very well noticeable NBU, and you shouldn't be littered with the chief supplier of "cheap" dollar. In - the second, and it, perhaps, even is more important (for traders of big banks): the income always shares better. If the profit settles in small bank, it is more compliant and compliant, than the management of large bank. Therefore at a stage of preparation for currency speculation participants of "concession" cast then begin Big Game.

The first course in this game - the large bank having considerable surplus to hryvnia on accounts, gives out the credit, for example, to the trading company. Thus the credit, as a rule, is given under than not provided trade operations and for large sums, and at the same time and on a favorable interest rate.

In turn, (it already the second stage in game) the trading company don't hurry to pay for goods which, clearly, it to buy and didn't gather. Instead it transfers money in small "friendly" bank for replenishment of the settlement account and hold them there. To bank the company, clearly, all this time regularly pays percent on the credit (we remember that percent symbolical therefore they with interest will pay off then).

Meanwhile (the third stage of game) the small bank turns to work. He "suddenly" notices that he has well simply a surplus to hryvnia. In this situation, needless to say, simply guilty not to buy dollar in the currency market. For this purpose our small bank buys dollars, clearly, "is absolutely casual" at that big bank and, clearly, at very quite good course. The big bank is able to afford to sell them at such course as it always has an opportunity to buy dollars in NBU at an official rate. And to explain currency purchase, the friendly trading company - the borrower "remembers" that the currency for calculation with the nonresident under the consulting contract is very necessary to it.

After such simple operation there comes the following stage. The small bank now as the monster enters the currency market. At first it buys up all small lots on sale and exposes the demand for purchase currency at the price 10-30% higher, than all the others. The market is sharply developed - the dollar rate "tears" up. And small bank, "having forgotten" about all the currency reserves and limits, buys up dollars in growth. Externally nothing connected, participants of "concession" act synchronously. Large bank, referring to the demand of small bank, too raises the price of sale of currency. The small bank lifts up a course even above, and finally in the market the panic begins.In this situation often the trader of large bank starts not to carrying out for technical reasons demands of clients for currency sale even more to warm up the market.

Here already it is necessary to forge iron while it is hot. Buyers of currency panic, and sellers reduce volumes of transactions. At last, when the panic reaches peak, the small bank offers for sale earlier bought cheap dollars on new, overestimated, to a course. And, clearly, sells them at this course. And the trading company "remembers" that the currency isn't necessary to it as decided not to pay to the nonresident.

Everything, the profit is got, it's done. Now it is necessary to curtail operation. The trading company, "having remembered" that the credit isn't necessary to it, returns money according to the credit agreement in large bank. The profit shares according to the conditions stipulated earlier. Curtain. Before the following Big Game on an exchange rate.

Now we will count, how many it is possible to earn on such "hills" in principle and, in particular, on that "hill" that happened on an outcome of July.

Simple calculation shows that at the expense of dollar rate fluctuations recently banks have opportunity to receive to 200-250% per annum. Agree, the quite good income in crisis conditions. Especially, if to compare it to rates on deposits, much smaller which the same banks offer the population.

As for a concrete July situation, we will remind that on Monday, July 27, dollars could be bought оп 7,93 UAH for dollar. And already on Wednesday, July 29 to sell them on 8,2 UAH for dollar. According to NBU data, the turn of dollars made on July 29 201 mln. dollars. If on such overestimated the course was sold at least by 100 mln. dollars, net income made 27 million UAH, or about 3,5 mln. dollars. If to consider that therefore to a course sold all to 201 mln. dollars, the income will be about 7 mln. dollars. Notice - in one day. If to divide this sum "on concepts" between several participants of game (see above about the one who what role in it plays), contacts on 1-2 million, so to speak, one concessionaire. We will remind - in day. Agree, not bad.

Finally, all are happy, except the population which once again paid for games of bankers from the blood savings. Any growth of a dollar rate, anyway conducts, to that people gaining income in hryvnia, pay games of currency speculators and the part of the and so small income lose.

Nikolay Gospodarets


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