Opinion of the director of economic programs of the Ukrainian center of economic and political researches of A. Razumkov about possible jumps of a dollar rate, and also about all factors influencing its revaluation.
What will be a dollar rate in July?
On macroindicators which now are, the dollar had to already will stop. If we look at balance of foreign trade, we will see that we have very big trade deficiency which grows before the eyes, and it demands considerable financing. From this point of view continuation of such dynamics looks unexpectedly and, probably, it is connected with proceeding credit boom though at the beginning of a year a number of reasons on the fact that expressed, considering a situation in the world financial markets, the volume of crediting will decrease. I so understand that profitability of the Ukrainian markets of the capitals, first of all, the short-term is high, interrupts risks and therefore the short-term capital continues to arrive, and it is a factor of pressure upon hryvnia strengthening.
Whether the dollar will fall further?
I find it difficult to tell, but the tendency of such high inflow of the capital to Ukraine specifies that, probably, now the external debt cumulative - both state, and private - made 93 billion dollars, and now this tendency of prompt inflow remains. Apparently, by the end of half-year the gross external debt will reach 100 billion dollars. This assessment is based on that dynamics which is observed in the last quarters. Now we somewhat can celebrate that Ukraine reached such size of a debt, but it is a gross debt, and state remains small.
To what it can lead?
It means that on service of this debt, not to mention the main sums, it is required more and more payments. I think that the devaluation pressure upon weakening of hryvnia has to be shown since the autumn period. By our estimates, really by the end of the year there will be a sharp deterioration of trade balance.
To what lead the short-term capitals?
They are extremely unstable and extremely dangerous to balancing of the external economic financial positions therefore, it seems to me, the main attention the central bank has to pay to management questions, and in a present situation and reductions of short-term capitals. By our estimates, high negative trade balance and that short-term streams and outflows will be somewhat ordered, will lead to that by the end of the year there will be a tendency to devaluation. That is, we consider such conditional fact that the course came back from 4,85 UAH to 4,95 UAH. At the same time, most likely, psychologically central bank will devaluate hardly, that is, most likely, NBU will use reserves to leave that course which now is. They will act so to avoid charges that they move one month in one direction, and in other - in other party. It is that scenario which is looked through, proceeding from macroeconomic calculations.