The national bank was frightened of a panic in the currency market and when on Friday the course to hryvnia on Mezhbank reached 5,3 UAH/$, decided to sell currency from the reserves at the price of 5 UAH/$. Thus the regulator insists that its injections will be minimum - only in order that "to discharge a situation". Bankers say that if NBU continued to ignore deficiency of currency in the market, the course would exceed 6 UAH/$. However to calm down early, the situation on Mezhbank will entirely depend today on National Bank actions, experts note.
Despite the National Bank statement on Thursday that it "won't spend currency reserves for satisfaction of speculative operations of participants of the currency market", on Friday of NBU decided to sell in the interbank currency market of $175 million at the rate of 5 UAH/$. This price is much lower than dollar quotations when closing the auction on October 2 and opening on October 3 - 5,10/5,24 UAH/$. I explained intervention of NBU with desire "a little to discharge a situation" in connection with sharp devaluation of hryvnia.
The first deputy chairman of National Bank Anatoly Shapovalov says that "in three days in economy or in the currency market there can't be something like that that the hryvnia exchange rate (since the beginning of October dollar so sharply went down rose in price from 5,05/5,1 UAH/$ to 5,1/5,25 UAH/$)". "It is exclusively psychological factor. When people come home and watch on TV as the American and European banks, plus a raider situation with Prominvestbank burst or will be nationalized, they remove deposits and run to buy currency. Therefore we left with intervention and sold currency under import contracts", - he tells. Traditionally on Friday of NBU doesn't participate in the auction on Mezhbank.
According to the published data of NBU, for September the population bought currencies on $1,321 billion more, than sold (in August excess made $568,9 million).But if the volume of sale of currency in September was at the level of an average - $2,5348 billion, the volume of purchase was record this year - $3,8558 billion. "In the last days of deposits acted more, and in some banks turns were observed, - the treasurer of one of the largest banks reported. - We explain to the population that we have not such situation as at Prominvestbank, and ahead of schedule you shouldn't close deposits". We will remind, after information attack to Prominvestbank his investors began to remove in large quantities deposits, and NBU was compelled to allocate to it the credit of 5 billion UAH
In September the volume of deposits of natural persons in banks, on the contrary, grew - by 2,283 billion UAH, generally due to inflow of 1,729 billion UAH into currency accounts. Only the enterprises showed pure outflow from currency deposits - 4,159 billion UAH which compensated growth of hryvnia deposits by 5,303 billion UAH. "The situation when practically nobody credits the enterprise proceeds, - the deputy chairman of board of one of banks with the foreign capital notes. - Before the company could be credited under deposits, and now when loans can't be obtained, they take away the money. Besides, according to my data, nearly a third of this sum was removed by one businessman who from the beginning of political crisis removed money "in smooth water".
Considering these factors, Mezhbank poorly reacted to NBU intervention. By data it is information - dealing UkrDealing.com system, the market was closed at the level of 5,20/5,23 UAH/$. "When there were transactions on 5,3 UAH/$, probably, at National Bank didn't sustain nerves, - one of bankers told. - But if he didn't sell currency, shortly we would see 6,5 UAH/$". "On Friday the National Bank satisfied not all demands, but on Monday we will open from 5,1-5,2 UAH/$", - the deputy of the deputy chairman of board of Shopping Mall Credit bank Maxim Gritsenko speaks. It should be noted that possibilities of NBU to influence Mezhbank for September decreased: the balance of its operations on Mezhbank was negative (-$150,3 million), and reserves fell in a month to $533,9 million
Bankers can't predict what will be Mezhbank course even in medium-term prospect. "We now have no normal market, and currency regulation doesn't allow to say that there are market mechanisms of determination of the price of a dollar rate, - the director of the department of operations in the financial markets of Finance and Credit bank Andrey Voitenko states. - Until there will be a market mechanism, there will be such sharp fluctuations and absolutely not predicted jumps".Experts insist that the exchange rate formation mechanism depends only on NBU, and Anatoly Shapovalov - that interventions will be minimum. Thus the Central Bank hopes that since November when new rules of work on Mezhbank will come into force and on the market all client demands will be taken out, the course will reflect the real price of currency. "If NBU not