Prices of corn went up. Ukraine got unique chance to make up for losses of this year and to sell surplus of grain which was created in the market after a record harvest, write "Economic news".
The edition reports that adverse weather conditions lowered a crop in a number of the countries - exporters and at the same time increased demand for grain. It does an environment of the world market of grain in 2009 for Ukraine extremely favorable. "In a number of the countries of the world the greatest drought for the last decades is observed. Especially crops of winter wheat in China where to a drought, unprecedented with 50-x years of last century, about 10 million hectares are subject suffer. For the same reason essential losses in production of grain, most likely, are expected and in South America", - the director general of the Ukrainian agrarian confederation Sergey Stoyanov speaks.
Drought in Argentina called already the most serious for the last 100 years. From - for a lack of moisture corn crops strongly suffered - the crop of this culture in comparison with last season will be reduced by 33-40%, and it is possible, and more. Decrease in a grain yield and olive predict also to Mexico, and in Brazil.
Besides weather conditions the crop-2009 is influenced also by world financial crisis. "It is obvious that in connection with world financial crisis won't do and without additional losses of a grain yield as a whole in all countries - producers of grain, regardless of weather conditions", - the head of the group of experts of the Ukrainian club of agrarian business Vladimir Lapa speaks. So, production of wheat in the world in comparison with 2008/09 MG next year can decrease with 676 to 627 million t at a consumption constant. The factor of financial crisis will be the main cause of decrease in a crop in EU - the forecast of production grain in 2009/10 MG is lowered to 295,8 million t that is about 5% less than production in the current season. The forecast of production of myagkozerny wheat is lowered to 132,2 million t (falling for 6% to level of 2008/09 MG), the forecast of production of corn - 7% less than a crop of the current period is reduced. "Now there are conservative estimates of falling of productivity on different cultures for 5-10%. Also it is the most conservative forecast, - analysts note.- It is objectively possible to expect decrease in cultivated areas from - for deteriorations of a financial condition of landowners and decrease in investments, in particular in EU countries".
With reduction of the offer grain the world market is entered by the importer with the huge market. In China in northern regions the drought caused serious damage to crops, 9,67 million hectares of cultivated areas suffer from reduction of stocks of drinking water now in the country. Amount of precipitation in northern part of China (where a third of all crops of wheat is located) 70-90% lower than average level. The country - the importer (about 6 million t of import to own production, generally soy and other oil-bearing crops), in the current season from - for decrease in a crop China will be compelled to increase volumes of import of grain considerably. "The fact of an exit of China changes an environment for the market of purchases of grain. Ukraine on the local market never loaded (though in this season, considering the fallen in price freight, such opportunity looks more probable), but demand from China is reflected in the global prices in the world market, - Vladimir Lapa speaks. - Certainly, we won't see momentary surge in demand as the country is provided with stocks (last crop in China was the biggest in the world - 112,5 million t), however in some months everything can change".
The world prices for grain already went up (we will remind that they reached a bottom in November - December of last year - the minimum made $160-165 for t продзерна). Today the prices of food wheat rose to 190$/t, however attempts to warm it further while meet misunderstanding from importers, as the grain offer still the high. However further the predicted increase in food prices can make 30-100%. It is caused not only physical decrease in amount of grain from - for weather conditions, but also falling of freight rates that will make export production more available and will urge on demand of importers protectionist actions of the states, speculation in the agrarian market, - experts of UKAB consider.
Thus, Ukraine as the supplier of grain can appear in very advantageous position. We will remind that the state winter in Ukraine, despite severe conditions of carrying out an autumn sowing campaign (a collapse in prices on grain and inaccessibility of borrowed funds from - for financial crisis), is estimated by officials as "very good" - landowners seeded about 5 million hectares of winter wheat.The spring sowing campaign which was already starting in the southern areas and to the Crimea is also supported with government support though it will be possible to judge efficiency of state support in process of increase in scale of sowing works. Experts predict that though cultivated areas nevertheless will decrease, however there are bases to expect a crop above an average. Though for reasonable estimates still early, however the forecast concerning 40 million t already was heard. Also there is an unrealized considerable part of a record harvest of the current season. "It is sure if Ukraine current marketing year appears with grain - efforts of her peasants will be rewarded by a world environment. Both on grain, and on oil-bearing crops. The rise in prices which began in new year, will proceed and further", - Sergey Stoyanov speaks. Vladimir Lapa notes that the gradual exit of the countries will favorably affect dynamics of the prices - importers from financial crisis. "I don't think that repetition of more difficult situation for suppliers what it was at the end of 2008 is possible,-after all at the end of last year many countries simply couldn't buy grain from - for a financial position, now, I think, the world learned to work in crisis conditions", - he speaks. Thus a number of experts predict that potentially successful season won't be able to prevent withdrawal from agrarian business of many producers, considering inconsistent policy of the state in this sphere, predict "Economic news".
MKMK. How effectively will be able to dispose of the changed environment of the grain market the Nikolaev agricultural producers, difficultly to tell. Judging by an official statistical reporting, нп on December 1 last year "in granaries" local agricultural enterprises more than 900 thousand tons of agricultural products, including, more than 500 thousand tons of grain remained. And it without stocks of small agrofarms of which it is the share, according to various data, from 20% to 40% of arable lands of the region, and production which is storing on elevators. Also shadow turn of grain which, according to unchecked data, makes not less than 20% of total amount isn't considered. Besides it isn't known, how many in this volume occupies a foodgrain.
Experts assume that in the world market, first of all, the grain traders which have saved up a significant amount of grain which bought up at the cheap prices of September - November of last year will use a rise in prices.
Only after realization of the stocks they will start over again to buy wheat, sunflower, corn, etc. in domestic market.
There are problems and at the companies exporting agricultural products by sea transport. According to JV JSC Nibulon, high tariffs for port, pilot and channel services in the Dneprobugsky estuary increase the final price of production taken out abroad that reduces its competitiveness and the income of the Ukrainian landowners. Is at exporters of a claim and to intensity of use of Bugsko - the Dneprovsky limansky channel on which movement of vessels of limited loading capacity in and is authorized only in the afternoon.
At the same time experts assume that the rise in prices will affect a foreign market of food wheat and within the country that can lead to even bigger rise in price of a hleboproduktion.
It should be noted that growth of the price of all grades of bread which is noted last week in Nikolaev at the level of 10-20 kopeks the baking enterprises explain with growth of gas price and need to return the last year's credits in dollars which them the government for purchase of food wheat of a new crop compelled to take.
We will note also that today employees of the baking industry picket Cabinet of Ministers with requirements to solve their problems.
We will remind that else in December our site reported about plans of the management of Association of bakers of Ukraine to raise bread price on the average to 6-7 UAH for kilogram if the government doesn't extinguish an exchange difference for the dollar credits which undertook the enterprises in August of last year at the rate of 4,7 UAH 1 dollars