By the end of August of this year one dollar will cost 10 hryvnias. Such forecasts gave the majority of the analysts interrogated by the international agency Bloomberg.
"Ukraine faces serious problems. The country needs to spend money not for support of the currency, and for stimulation of real economy", - so proves the forecast the analyst on emerging markets of the Danish bank Danske Bank Lars Rasmussen.
However, some bankers give even more pessimistic assessment to the Ukrainian currency. According to their data, by fall for dollar will give at all to 11,2 hryvnia. The most optimistic forecast - 8,5 hryvnia for dollar. However anyway none of the international analysts don't divide optimism of representatives of National bank which by the end of the year doesn't exclude strengthening to hryvnia to 6 hryvnias for dollar.
Since August of last year гривня depreciated for 43% - to 8,26 hryvnia for dollar. However the beginning of 2009 didn't bring to economy of Ukraine anything good and therefore for the next half a year the national currency devaluates for 19%, reports Bloomberg. Decrease in gross domestic product of Ukraine this year will make at least 9%, HSBC bank forecasts testify. Other negative factor is that for January the National Bank spent considerable part of the reserves - about 9%. If so much to spend every month, soon anything from reserves doesn't remain. Therefore experts are sure - NBU will be less active now in the currency market, and without support of the main bank of the country гривня again can depreciate.
At this Bloomberg sees no reason for improvement of an economic situation. Industrial production as a whole for January fell to 34,1%. It is the worst indicator in Europe. But these data don't display all picture. For example, production of steel at us fell in the country in January 2009-го in comparison with January, 2008, however in comparison with November - December of last year it even increased almost by a third. Thus demand for the Ukrainian metal steadily grows recently thanks to the low prices.
"If cooperation of Ukraine and the IMF stops, the economy will roll down in an abyss", - the economist of Nomura Holdings Inc bank Ivan Chakarov concludes.Its forecast is close to IMF estimates - 8,5 hryvnia for dollar by the end of August whereas the IMF predicts to 8,6 hryvnia as an average annual course in 2009. However our experts point to election campaign which has to begin summer of this year and under which to the country the hugest quantity of currency will be delivered. And it can bring down demand for dollars and strengthen гривню.