The dollar will reach 10 UAH this week?

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The cash dollar rate for the first time in one and a half months exceeded 9 UAH/$ from - for actions of National bank which tries to regulate administratively the market and sells currency in small volumes, bankers declared. According to their forecasts, at such growth rate the dollar this week will reach 10 UAH, writes "Kommersant - Ukraine".

On Saturday - Sunday the rate of cash dollar overcame a mark in 9 UAH/$. It was preceded by a systematic rise in price of currency in the interbank market where, by data the Internet - UkrDealing systems, dollar jumped up from 8,05/8,20 UAH/$ on Monday to 8,31/8,55 UAH/$ on Friday. At this NBU didn't want to change tactics and I sold currency on 7,79 UAH/$ that is only 9 kopeks higher than an invariable official rate. Yesterday banks in Kiev sold dollar on 9,0-9,2 UAH/$. The last time it cost at the beginning of January so much.

Bankers explain hryvnia devaluation with economic and political instability. "Growth of a course was expected, forecasts start coming true. Now it will grow further from - for economic and a political situation in the country. The economy stopped, export isn't present, and politicians achieve the objectives on the eve of elections", - the treasurer of one of banks considers. "Such always occurs when a course artificially regulate. The National Bank has no money, there is nothing to sell before receiving the second tranche of the IMF to it", - one of bankers speaks. The second tranche has to make SDR of 1,8 billion, or $1,847 billion. According to the interlocutor of Kommersant if the dollar rises in price so quickly, this week it can reach 10 UAH/$.

Bankers consider as the main reason of devaluation manual regulation of a course. Still on February 11 NBU forbade banks to perform currency transactions (including on orders of clients) at the rate which "significantly exceeds an average rate of the market" - on Thursday of 7,87 UAH/$. "Recently NBU constantly sends to letter banks with the requirement to perform currency transactions at the rate which it makes up, - one of treasurers tells.- Banks which are attached to NBU and can't without its refinancing, lose clients, and banks which to spit, invent tricks, for example a binding to euro or ruble, or the commission".

However, the head of group of advisers to head of NBU Valery Litvitsky claims that until the end of March the National Bank can spend for course support about $2,5 billion

Data of NBU say that it still had a little money for interventions. The international reserves of NBU for February 1 made $28,82 billion, and by March 31 gross reserves of NBU (without the second tranche) have to be not less than $26,3 billion. Thus, on intervention remains to $2,5 billion, but, according to mister Litvitsky, since the beginning of February of NBU already I sold on Mezhbank of $1,15 billion. Taking into account demanded payment of NAK Naftogaz Ukrainy till March 7 about $360-450 million for gas remain free $0,92-0,96 billion with NBU - $35 million a day.


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