The dollar for 10 hryvnias will destroy a banking system

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Today bankers are excited by a problem of mass non-payments of borrowers on the currency credits. And if in March the course really jumps up to 9,5-10 UAH/$, the majority of banks won't live till last spring month.

This year the Ukrainian banks "in all growth" are faced by two problems:

- not return of the credits by the population and bankrupt companies,

- difficulties with return of foreign loans by financial institutions from - for hryvnia exchange rate falls.

Without severe losses will endure financial crisis only part of averages and small banks which conducted careful credit policy, reports the Internet - the Seychas newspaper.

- Meanwhile, completely to avoid problems with payment of the credits everything is it wasn't possible, - the banker Alexey Savchenko, the chairman of the board "The partner - bank" admits. - With some we prolong the credits, we overestimate mortgage property, we increase the volume of pledges. The bank isn't interested to select property which was bought at the expense of proceeds of credit because it - not its profile activity. It is unpleasant part of our work, but sometimes we do it according to the current legislation of Ukraine.

In total in 2009 domestic banks have to pay about $4 billion on the eurobonds and syndicated loans that makes about 29% of all external payments of the state and corporate sectors this year.

The leader by the amount of payments is "the Alpha - Bank" (Ukraine) - it in 2009 needs to extinguish three issues of eurobonds for the sum of $695 million, and also to pay three syndicates on $86,7 million. "Further state "Ukreksimbank" - 595 million which, without having support from foreign parent structures follows, won't be able to receive dollar from the outside and will be compelled to buy it for hryvnias. At a present exchange rate the sum of payments for it will increase by one and a half times, and isn't excluded that it in this case will ask for the help the state.

The banks having maternal support, most likely will get access to refinancing of the debts in a foreign currency.

By estimates of analysts, the non-return of the credits the population and the bankrupt companies can turn back a problem not only for the borrower, but also for bank.

According to NBU, for January 1, 2009 the share of the overdue credits made 2,27%. Critical for banks with the Ukrainian capital is 30%-й level of non-returns, for "foreigners" - 40%, experts consider. Excess of this indicator calls into question into profitability of the maintenance of points of sales and branches, and finally - business as a whole.

Zone of the increased risk are the currency credits in the car loans and mortgage sphere. Loss of work and depreciation of national currency practically don't leave to citizens of chances to repay the assumed obligations. Today on sites of many banks it is possible to see sections with lists of the mortgage property offered for sale. But also it doesn't rescue. In the conditions of falling of the income the population isn't able to buy estimated by banks (at the pre-crisis prices) property. As result - bankers lose inflow of cash. It compels them to make concessions, to look for exit options from the created situation.

In Association of the Ukrainian banks at all decided that the Cabinet of Ministers is able to redeem the problem credits completely. "The government can select the borrowers who have taken the currency credits under own apartments, to count their annual debt and to redeem them from banks. It will be rather small sums, but it will be the real help and to borrowers, and banks", - the president of AUB Alexander Sugonyako considers.

In NBU - the vision of a problem. The idea is as follows: commercial bank will address to NBU with the offer on what means and in what volume are necessary to it for implementation of the agreement between bank and the borrower. The register of clients in which it is specified First name, middle initial, last name the citizen with whom the credit agreement, contract number, the sum of unpaid percent on the credit and total amount of nonpayment according to the credit agreement is signed is formed.

The currency will be on sale to bank at the rate which was established at the specified auction. At the same course the bank will have to sell currency and to the client. At such mechanism the borrower doesn't buy currency. Let's say the person has to pay to bank of $1000 monthly. It comes to office and pays in hryvnias proceeding from a course at which NBU sold this currency to bank.

While bankers still have time to choose, who and how will rescue the borrower and money of banks. But through two - three months will be already late."At a rate of 8-8,5 UAH/$ and above the share of the problem credits will monthly increase by 5% and in half a year can make about 50% with all that it implies from this for a banking system consequences", - the head is sure is information - the analytical center "Forex-Club" Nikolay Ivchenko. He also declared that for those who works with us we return a spread half into your account.

If the American currency grows to 9,5-10 UAH/$, the problem credits will grow for 10% every month, the expert summarizes. And according to the former Minister of Economics and the acting head of National Bank of Arseniy Yatsenyuk if the dollar grows to 10 UAH, for a banking system it will be deadly, and it is necessary to forget about returns of the credits forever.


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