Parliamentary forces: The analysis on NATO

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The subject of the euroatlantic integration of Ukraine for the last half a year not only managed to turn into one of the worn most out, but also confirmed the status of some kind of litmus piece of paper. One political forces rigidly follow once to the accepted course, and here at others - statements and actions concerning NATO periodically contradict each other.

"NATU - no! "

In a similar situation it is simplest to consider positions of basic supporters or opponents of a way of Ukraine to the west. If to pay attention it is exclusive on parliamentary forces, first of all, an eye can please sequence of representatives of Communist party. Representatives of KPU in urgent cases are able to afford such "luxury" as the solution of legislative questions which can demand situationally synchronous vote with "oligarchical political forces" (and at worst - also creation of the joint coalition present with it). But in all that concerns close cooperation of Ukraine with Europe or (that is even worse) the USA, communists are unshakable almost as well as Natalya Vitrenko's progressive socialists.

"Red" show the inflexibility both the word, and business. For example, joint attempt is planned for the near future with PSPU to break the next stage of the doctrines Sea Breeze which has to take place in July. It isn't known, whose role in similar actions is decisive - communists or "vitrenkovets", but in 2006 similar doctrines in the Crimea and were not carried out. But in 2007, despite cumulative efforts of semi-marginal political forces, the Odessa and Nikolaev areas managed to see a NATO form.

Unlike non-parliamentary companions, "фе" communists state the and in a sessional hall. And, the protest can be traditional from the point of view of the developed parliamentarism. So, KPU fraction full structure ignored April vote under the law which has approved the decision of the president "About the admission of divisions of armed forces of other states on the territory of Ukraine in 2008 for participation in multinational military exercises".But most often the most red deputies resort to acquaintances in the Verkhovna Rada to demarches: or personal (when discordant with attempts "to tighten the country in the aggressive block" the fraction solemnly leaves plenary session), or mass (in style of half-month blockade of a tribune of the "name PDCh" initiated by Party of Regions at the end of January, 2008).

Speeches of communistic leaders fill with anti-NATO rhetoric also. After all not without reason Pyotr Simonenko with enviable frequency promises to make "everything to protect our earth from transformation into the NATO range". For KPU similar war with windmills is and the proof of devoted following once the declared program purpose, and means of satisfaction of dreams of voters, and excess opportunity for public relations. And each point brings the advantages.

Quicker. Even quicker …

Like communists the position on NATO is transformed extremely seldom by representatives of presidential camp led by Victor Yushchenko. It is known that the Guarantor Konstitutsii - almost the most consecutive Ukrainian supporter of an intensification of a way of our state on Severo - the West. And together with it - and the most part of devoted Party members.

Official opinion WELL - NANOSECOND concerning membership of Ukraine in Alliance: quickly. And statements of "foreign policy" speakers of the block usually reflect not the Ukrainian realities, and desirable reality. So, for example, on the eve of visit to Kiev NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffera ex-the Minister of Foreign Affairs Boris Tarasyuk declared that speculation on subject PDCh is unreasonable as Ukraine and without that is most approached to standards of the Plan of action concerning membership. "Ukraine already - the fact works in the PDCh mode the last three years. Annual target plans are formed on PDCh methodology", - explained нардеп.

Besides that representatives WELL - NANOSECOND declare readiness to enter the Block "as soon as, then" (though, like other political forces everything is "look back" and at a profile referendum), they also actively criticize all possible opponents of merge to Alliance. Recently most of all "got" to Victor Yanukovych's colleagues - mainly for idea to enter into a correspondence to Brussels apropos "letters of three" and attempts to intercept a "referendumny" initiative on itself.But "okolonatovsky" opposition of these two forces became much less sharp after in air again завитали hearings about the future creation of the "wide" coalition …

Besides the declaration of ideological proximity to North Atlantic alliance and devotion demonstration to presidential positions, at WELL - NANOSECOND it is possible to find one more reason both in words, and in practice to support NATO - integration. As it is known soon has to start four-year-old промо - campaign which is urged to change opinion of the Ukrainian people concerning accession to Blok. Under a noble purpose is planned to allocate considerable funds, and a loud-hailer агитпохода, most likely, becomes WELL - NANOSECOND. If only svezhesozdanny to "The uniform center" doesn't manage to intercept an initiative at the block.

Noblesse oblige

Like alliance "our Ukraine" and "National self-defense", the devotion to the euroatlantic ideals with an enviable regularity declare BYuT generally and the prime minister in particular. On the one hand, it is obligatory part supported by Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc politicians of "introduction" in the European and universal structures. Besides the considerable part of electorate of BYuT - integration belongs to idea of NATO more than indulgently. On the other hand, in excessive activity in this sphere both many "byutovets", and Yulia Timoshenko it is difficult to accuse. After all after round well-known "letters of three" political crisis was played, Yulia Vladimirovna at once expressed readiness to withdraw the signature from - under a sample of an epistolary genre. And during visits to Brussels the head of the government, unlike the president, doesn't show readiness to enter NATO "from running start". On the contrary, Yulia Timoshenko with activity, worthy the best speakers of Party of Regions, appeals to national opinion and already morally prepares for a referendum.

By and large, an official position at BYuT concerning NATO approximately same, as at WELL - NANOSECOND, - here really noblesse oblige. The provision of coalition force, position of representatives of democratic camp, position of guides of Ukraine in bright future. But a lot of things rest and against details. It is hard to say, how personally Yulia Timoshenko is interested in NATO - integration. Apparently, it - not that problem, which not permission will prevent the prime minister to sleep. And therefore, in "okolonatovsky" activity of BYuT often slip notes of indispensable desire adequately "to correspond" to the moment, but no more.

Representatives of BYuT regularly vote for all necessary laws and programs. They persistently declare need of eurointegration of Ukraine. But thus try "not to offend" other interested parties. Yulia Timoshenko's not all voters - ardent admirers of Alliance? The rhetoric is designed for them about a referendum, and accompanied in the figures which and didn't dream same "nunsovets". "The referendum can be after performance of all conditions - and it is in about 10 years", - in March the head of BYuT fraction Ivan Kirilenko shared such opinion. There is no wish too to spoil the relations with Russia? In BYuT consider that it is possible to enter the Block at the same time with "the northern neigbour" (in ten years, probably, it is planned to change radically the relation of Moscow to Alliance) … Similar expectantly - the accurate position though plays on BYuT, but, except other, allows and to doubt absolute sincerity of intentions of "timoshenkovets".

Yes. No. Probably …

Not BYuT - doubts uniform. Striking example of that the position of the Ukrainian political forces on NATO in many respects depends on "a sitting place" Blok of Litvin (and mostly - nevertheless his leader) serves. Vladimir Mikhaylovich's integration rushes funny depend on extent of its personal integration into the power. Reservations on a referendum are present at words of the present leader of the block of a name of long ago, but as a whole "the opinion apropos" endured a number of transformations.

In 2002 Vladimir Litvin recently chosen the speaker of recently chosen new convocation of parliament was "all hands - for" the euroatlantic integration. "We are ready to go to cooperation so far, is how ready to this NATO", - he spoke. However, in those far times the Ukrainian NATO - prospects looked rather illusive in order that it was possible to afford rather painless loud statements.

In 2005 Vladimir Mikhaylovich continued to remain the convinced supporter of friendship with Alliance. Moreover, he sacredly believed that in NATO Ukraine will take earlier, than in EU. "I will make bold to tell that readiness of NATO to have closer relations with Ukraine is much more perspective, than the relations with EU. We have relations with NATO more advanced, than with EU", - the head of parliament shone brightly optimism.

After a while (and after "flight" on the next elections") Vladimir Litvin's opinion significantly changed. To elections - 2007 it already inclined to cardinally other point of view:"I recognize that Ukraine has to close, probably, a subject of conversations on the accession to NATO. I am confident in it and I insist that we have to be guided by the Declaration on the state sovereignty where the extra block status of Ukraine" is accurately recorded.

On elections, probably, the "anti-NATO" rhetoric was not superfluous. In any case, Blok of Litvin got to parliament where to this day takes an honourable amorphous position. On the one hand, representatives of the block declare unavailability of Ukraine to join, anywhere, with another, - is serviceable and full structure vote for the bills similar to supporting carrying out joint doctrines. By and large, BL position too strongly depends on a momentary environment of the political market that it was possible to deal with ease: so "litvinovets" want or not to enter NATO.

Technology of use of different baskets

At all brightness of results of the comparative analysis of statements of Vladimir Litvin, before the best manifestations of discrepancy and - la Partiya reguionov to his block it is far. "Regionals" being in words opponents in principle if not the Alliance, precisely the near-term outlook of the introduction in it of Ukraine, in practice not always are such basic. And the result of activity of PR with greatest "scratch" passes "the analysis on NATO".

The external position of Party of Regions on NATO is simple and it is good кореллируется with views of primary part of "regional" voters: Blok's not aggression isn't proved, closely you shouldn't cooperate with him (only within the international decencies), it is possible to join even PDCh only at will of the people and in general - Ukraine - the state extra block, and has to be on friendly terms first of all with Russia.

Best of all at "regionals" it turns out to be on friendly terms with Russia, other points basic NATO - positions can be corrected considerably depending on realities and requirements.

If to leave groundlessness of the most part of traditional arguments of speakers of PR (in the Ukrainian Constitution the extra block statehood isn't recorded, as though for it there was no wish some) behind brackets, there is a question: why then there are such juicy scandals. As practice shows, NATO - subject - a fertile occasion (instead of the reason) for creation of parliamentary crises. And events of January - clearly showed March, 2008 it.In practice opponents of Party of Regions have a mass of opportunities to prove inconsistency being "is white - blue". It is known that the law on bases of national security (where the Ukrainian way to the west is proclaimed) was adopted in 2003 by considerable quantity of voices and from outside "regionals" too. In turn, being the prime minister - the minister, to Victor Yanukovych Ukraine - NATO" was necessary to sign the cooperation program "and it didn't cause in it sharp rejection. And for carrying out "A sea breeze" both in 2007, and in 2008 of force of NATO can thank deputies - "regionals" in many respects. For example, on April 11 the current year already mentioned law multinational doctrines safely was supported by 117 representatives of the Ave.

Inveterate opponents "to involve Ukraine" assure that essentially not against cooperation in NATO, it is simple to enter there don't want. But thus, with Vasily Kiselyov's lips are indignant with that Yulia Timoshenko's government doesn't satisfy all conditions of the Ukraine — NATO program. Most of all the behavior of Party of Regions reminds attempts to spread out eggs on different baskets: and to please opponents of eurointegration, and to leave itself a scope for necessary maneuver if suddenly the situation so changes that it will be necessary to replace an official rate. In any case, Victor Yanukovych already signed the "integration" Universal of National Unity. Also it isn't known that else will be able to become PR contribution, for example, in the hypothetical "wide" coalition agreement. It isn't excluded that to the president - a notable evroatlantist - "indulgences" …

will be made

The Flyugersky position concerning NATO is peculiar not only to "regional Party members". The Ukrainian political forces in principle aren't alien such scheme of behavior at which one is declared, is hinted at another, and becomes - already the third - the fourth. In questions of integration of Ukraine with the West as in many others, rule a ball of a reason of expediency. And not foreign policy, but inner-party. It is a pity, only at the Alliance management views not so wide to estimate traditional Ukrainian "almost that a mnogovektornost".


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