Experts claim that in the next months the dollar will grow slowly. Meanwhile the tendency of growth of a course to hryvnia can remain: NBU continues to support actively national currency daily injections about $40-43 million, but hardly will be though one serious analyst who would put the hundred dollars on permanent revaluation of national currency.
In the near-term (summer) outlook гривня has some prerequisites to strengthening. So who has opportunities, maybe, and should fill up the "a currency portfolio". Without fanaticism, certainly. Speculators still want to earn, and they will use any occasion that figures on exchangers not "fell into stability".
Intermediate revaluation to hryvnia can be replaced by its short-term devaluation. The course won't stand still as driven is that obligation which the National Bank assumed before the IMF. It is necessary to remember the general tendency of summer months and not to panic.
Nikolay IVCHENKO, senior analyst "Forex Club":
- In March import made $3,9 billion, in April it already about $3 billion. In May, on - visible, importers don't plan big purchases of goods abroad and for the auction don't come. Demand create, generally only those companies which need to pay off on external loans. There is a hope that in the summer activity of the market will fall even more so the currency considerably shouldn't rise in price.
However in three months, by fall, the maturity date of the external credits commercial banks will come. Probably, prospects of importers will improve by then. Besides on the eve of elections won't allow to skip to currency. And here after there can be a sharp rise in price of currency. As for forecasts popular in the press on 6 UAH for dollar in the summer, hardly NBU will allow dollar to fall so sharply.
Alexander ACORN, expert of the International center of perspective researches:
- You shouldn't count on revival of import in the next months - solvency of the population falls. But currency outflow in the market all the same is more, than inflow.NBU stocks for the beginning of year made $29 billion, and today already $24,5 billion. Reserves leave on course maintenance. And the sizes of a private public debt make about $25 billion. On this background it is heavy to claim that the national currency can be stable.
Until the end of a month the course tendency can remain, but it not long-term prospect. Elections assume course deduction by all means, but in the fall, during demand activization from banks which should pay on debts, is it will be difficult. At this government already there was a dollar on 10 UAH so you shouldn't count that the course will be held if it suddenly starts growing sharply. We yet don't see the reasons to change the forecasts and we put 10 UAH for dollar on the end of the year.