Summer - not the best time for sociological inquiries, especially about politicians. In the summer respondents, in - the first, run up who where, in - the second, try about bad not to think. But, on the other hand, elections are elections, and hardly this summer citizens far escaped from policy. Judging by furniture of the territory of the country billboards, posters and an other banner, applicants get electorate and in places of its recreation. Therefore Razumkov's Center was interested in a pre-election situation and during the high season holidays.
And it isn't vain. Three quarters of citizens assured interviewers that intend to take part in elections, about 9-10% don't intend, the others while think. Moreover, judging by the answers, more than 70% of citizens of the country already defined for/against whom they will vote, and intentions of 46% are concentrated on three applicants so leaders of future race, as of this day, were defined too.
However, if to look narrowly more fixedly, not everything is so unambiguous, and results of poll decline to some assumptions …
Survey is conducted by sociological service of the Center on July 20-28, 2009. 2006 respondents are interrogated is more senior than 18 years in all regions of Ukraine. The theoretical error of selection doesn't exceed 2,3%.
Three in yellow jerseys and Victor Andreevich
The logic of a genre demands to declare leaders of a presidential rating, and respect for the highest state position - to state a place in it the acting head of state who has already declared besides desire to seek reelection.
We will begin with respect for a position.
So, happen the first round of presidential election "on the next Sunday", Victor Andreevich would receive from 12% of votes in the west of the country to 1% - in the south. In total - 4%.Exactly as much, how many and Pyotr Nikolaevich Simonenko. Whether irony of history, whether electoral grimace, but all the same angry …
As for leaders of the first round, yellow jerseys it should sew three. One big - for Victor Fedorovich who has collected 22% of votes, and two it is less: the very ladies' - for Yulia Vladimirovna and youth in a protective strip - for simply as it became clear, Arseny. Because the first would receive 13% of the votes, the second - 11%. Situation at which sociologists define places very carefully in view of low-impressive distinction of percent, and applicants for presidency demand recalculation of bulletins, threaten with court and demonstrations of supporters.
Therefore leaders today - three. And hypothetical second round would have an interesting appearance.
If in the second round there was Yulia Vladimirovna and Victor Fedorovich, would win against the last for which 33% of citizens would vote. For YuV - 24%, exactly as much against both.
If in the second round there was Victor Fedorovich and simply Arseny, again - would win our consecutive and practically with the same quantity of voices - 32%. Simply Arseny would receive 28%. 21% would vote against both.
And if to assume today the improbable - that Victor Fedorovich, giving way to the lady and the road young, the candidacy withdrew, and in the second round there was Yulia Vladimirovna and simply Arseny?
That would be won by those who voted against both - 31%, and then - to tell youth as it is sad about it at ladies of elegant age. 26% of citizens would vote for Arseny, and there would be he Arseny Petrovich, and for the lady of Yu - 19%, and there would be she simply lady Yu, without position. Though, knowing lady Yu …
By the way, speaking about positions and to them respect, nearly I didn't forget Vladimir Mikhaylovich Litvin. In the first round of elections it would receive 3% of votes of citizens, and in the second could take part already only as a power source.
However to speak about the second round really early. That who is in the lead today to reach in this status the first. What not fact …
Shadow of doubt
To citizens offered on a choice three judgments (except, naturally, "I find it difficult to answer"):
1. In Ukraine there is a politician who could become (or already I became) the good head of the state, and on elections I will vote only for it and for anybody another.
2.In Ukraine there are politicians who can be quite good heads of the state but if there is someone better, I can vote for it.
3. Among the Ukrainian politicians isn't present such who could be the good head of the state.
It would be possible to assume that supporters of today's leaders in total number of 46% will choose the first version of the answer, so far as they in the sympathies were defined.
But isn't present.
If to look, what part of supporters of each leader "will vote only for him and for anybody another", it will appear that such firm adherents Victor Fedorovich - 12%, at Yulia Vladimirovna has 6%, at simply Arseny - at all 5%.
It seems that actually defined supporters at today's leaders only 23%.
Thus it isn't necessary to think that supporters of leaders at all are inconsistent and ветрены. As a rule, they, in - the first, are ready to vote and for that political force which heads a subject of their sympathies. So, parties of regions are ready to vote 94% симпатиков Victor Fedorovich, for BYuT - 85% of those who would vote for Yulia Vladimirovna, for the Front of changes - 72% supporting simply Arseny.
In - the second, they, as well as it is necessary, completely support activity of the elects: among Victor Fedorovich's electorate of such 64%; Yulia Vladimirovna - 66%; simply Arseny - 60%. And among them practically there are no those who doesn't support the mentioned activity. Except for Victor Andreevich's supporters among whom 8% of those who doesn't support his activity, but I intend to vote for it.
But it as a whole. And here "if there is someone better" …
But it not main thing. Support - business acquirable, eventually campaign still ahead … Another is remarkable.
Regional distribution of electoral sympathies for leaders testifies that these leaders - regional scale.
So, Victor Fedorovich - the leader only for the East and the South where in the first round 36% and 34% of citizens respectively intend to support him. But in the Center - 12%, in the West - only 6%.
Yulia Vladimirovna - the leader for the country Center where 18%, but the next rivals not especially far can vote for it: here and simply Arseny we are ready to support Victor Fedorovich on 12% of inhabitants of the region.
Simply Arseny - the present leader of the West with possible support of 21% of his inhabitants and with an insignificant separation from Yulia Vladimirovna for whom 19% are ready to vote.Here the next rival both is Victor Andreevich for whom as it was already mentioned, we are ready to give votes of 12% of citizens of the Western region.
It is possible to look on - to another. Among Victor Fedorovich's supporters, wishing to live better already today, 78% - inhabitants of the East and the South. Among concordants to save on the first lady of the country - 73% of inhabitants of the Center and the West, and among thirsty changes of their 71%.
Thus, about the national leader the speech doesn't go.
And it is a question that elections-2010 can quite be continuation of elections-2004. And, unfortunately, not that is the Maidan as protest against lie, cynicism and willfulness of the power, and that is a rupture of the country to the west - the East. And whoever from present leaders won - the next five years all of us will live among strangers, enemies each other, finding out who what language speaks …
Present leaders - children of this gap, even Arseny Petrovich about whom five years ago very few people heard. And irrespective of, whether it made itself(himself), whether there is it someone's "project", today it - hope orange, disappointed both in Victor Andreevich, and in Yulia Vladimirovna, the successor of their supporters and voices. No more than that. "" For the East it doesn't become and doesn't aspire, actually. If it - "project", its task in other.
And our task if we don't want to live as lived the last five years, - to overcome at last the not curiosity, to give up forever hopes for the educated governor and to inspect ranks of applicants for presidential post attentively, including - over the heads of today's leaders. To demand from them applying, distinct programs, and at least to read these programs. To demand to present future team - and to try to remember that these people made already that they promised and that actually achieved, or at least - whether the presents at them are diplomas and whether their hands actually are clean. And the main thing - to demand that applicants didn't divide us on "correct" and isn't present, because as it is written in the Book of books: "The house divided in, will fail …".
And to vote mind - for the country future, instead of the region - for "".
Especially as as it became clear, many of us more than it seems still wait "if there is someone better". Time is. Perhaps, will appear, and perhaps, - it will be shown …
At a statement of results the following regional division of the country is used: The East - the Dnepropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye, Lugansk, Kharkov areas;The West - Volynsk, Zakarpatye, Ivano - Frankovskaya, Lvov, Rivnensky, Ternopol, Chernovitsky; The Center - Kiev, Vinnytsia, Zhitomir, Kiev, Kirovograd, Poltava, Sumy, Hmelnitsky, Cherkassk, Chernigov areas; The South - ARE the Crimea, the Nikolaev, Odessa, Kherson areas.
From respondents who intend to vote for a certain politician in the first round, we distinguished those who chose the first version of the answer. For example, if for V. Yanukovych 22% of all respondents are going to vote, and among them 55% chose the specified option, it is possible to carry 12% of respondents to V. Yanukovych's "resistant" electorate.