Ukrainian voter: pro et contra

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Supervision over a course of election campaign in Ukraine gives feeling of a deja vu. Alas, on the former Soviet Union, owing to uniform mentality and similar living conditions, both the past and the future seem such similar and easily predictable.

Ukraine chooses the way, but it is too much signs of that the country won't descend from the route which has been already blazed by her east neighbor.

It would be incorrect to draw direct analogies between present public leaders of Ukraine and the Russian political elite of the recent past. And all - is too much general between Ukrainian and Russian ельцинами, гайдарами, чубайсами, Yavlinsky, Nemtsov …

Only in Russia their time left, and in Ukraine still proceeds. The public politician - always a product of mass demand, the answer to actual requirement here and now.

Not the Maidan was demanded by politicians, and politicians Maydanom. That is why their future in a new political solitaire is so predictable. If to former masters of minds was to specify enough, "who is guilty", new it is necessary to explain, "what to do".

As well as in due time in Russia, demand for the pragmatic leaders answering to a today's condition of society, the demanding answer to too burning issues in the conditions of expanding world crisis becomes public need for Ukraine.

Not war of elite will define the winner in presidential race, and a superiority in support of regional electorate in all territory.

Opposition in Kiev won't be more decisive factor for a victory. Fight for regions will turn an outcome of election campaign for presidency.

Tens of millions voters from the West to the East will tell solving pro or CONTRA, having believed the Only thing to send to a non-existence of all other candidates for president.

And the main impact will be had on this decision by anti-capital, anti-Kiev moods of the province tired of unresolved problems and injustice of distribution of the social benefits in favor of capital Kiev. That is why it isn't much today chances at the former idols of the Maidan.

In the Ukrainian society the request for the Maidan, for street democracy and habitual images of the Ukrainian politicians is settled. There is a gradual devaluation of images and a dethronement of myths.

Colors and messages of available politicians are too well-known to voters. It it will be difficult to surprise with something the and still the undecided electorate.

In society expectation of new political force or a part of already known politicians, but with new image, with new political technologies ripens. The factor of fatigue of people from the same politicians who are constantly flashing on the screen amplifies.

The new deal in a game of politics will depend in many respects on ability to agree and build negotiation process with competitors, elite, the relations with electorate and political positioning.

Competently built coalition strategy will be one of decisive factors. Today any of candidates isn't self-sufficient, and in case of an exit in the second round everyone of them will be compelled to address for support to partners.

Subject of arrangements becomes, with a big share of probability, a post the prime minister - the minister.

Unique specifics of this presidential election that major candidates are authorities and, respectively, will seek to lean in election campaign on the imperious resources built down.

But horizontal interrelations become competitive advantage in such situation not vertical, but. At such number of candidates from the power vertical directives and administrative resources can simply not work.

Governors and other regional elite will be compelled, for political self-preservation, to deal doubly, actually sabotaging elections.

Candidates can appear the deceived central and regional elite, compelled to play on some fronts.

In such conditions work directly with voters in regions, bypassing elite, with simultaneous attraction on the party of supporters of new leaders of the public opinion which hasn't been built in operating power structures becomes much more advantageous strategy.

Those who will consider the supporters not on the heads of governors and oligarchs, and on voices of specific voters will achieve success.

The media resource on - former will be important, but not the quantity of pocket mass media will define an outcome of elections, and number of the regions which have given the maximum support to the candidate.

The one who will appropriate for itself(himself) regions and will make work at a grassroots level, in masses, a priority of the propaganda work and becomes the favourite. For this reason for all candidates these elections become fight for regions.

Presidential election of 2010 in Ukraine, most likely, will show one more short story of political communications. The main violin on elections will be played not by political ideologies, and the political technologies focused on economy.

It is connected first of all by that crisis becomes a key subject for all candidates. But for someone it will choke in an infinite rehash "Crisis and anti-crisis", having quickly taken a place of political demagogy.

And more pragmatic leaders will be able to force it to work effectively within a formula "economy against policy".

In this case capacious and biting slogans, and also simple, clear and close will be necessary for everyone plan of action on an economy conclusion from crisis.

The voter of last years was full and happy. He was more viewer, than the participant and with interest watched theater of political actions.

The present is hungry, dissatisfied and evil … And it will revenge for disappointments to on whom will want to shift the blame for the present material state.

Minor on upcoming elections will seem both nationalist rhetoric, and electoral idea "Russia - anti-Russia".

Moreover, the factor of the Russian support someone from candidates won't be key, and gas or any other blackmail from Russia in general can cause rejection in voters.

Any of candidates won't risk more to refer to personal support of the president of Russia Dmitry Medvedev or the prime minister Vladimir Putin.

Certainly, it doesn't mean that Russia is indifferent to presidential election in Ukraine. But, most likely, she will simply watch their course and to wait for results.

It is unlikely with process will begin to interfere actively and such large geopolitical players as the European Union, the USA or NATO. They are too ambiguously perceived by the Ukrainian society, acting as more allergen for the majority of voters.

Therefore, from the point of view of country and international support, Ukraine on upcoming elections remains in private with the problems and the izibiratel.

In a due measure traditional party ideologies won't work at these elections also.And it means that transition from mega - ideas to the political offer addressed to simple people and adapted under their today's needs and problems is necessary.

Political technologies of formation of social optimism can appear the most demanded Ukrainian voters. Crisis is time of changes. It is a great opportunity for appearance of the new political leaders supported by new political technologies.

Presidential election has chance to change not only a political landscape of Ukraine, but also to affect destiny of the country by means of a legitimate choice voters new political and socially - an economic vector of development.

Whether the Ukrainian voter only will estimate the great mission, the historical mission in a choice of the future of own country or as if drugged by the Gogol devil, will make a choice contrary to a self-preservation instinct? !

Guy Hanov, the candidate of historical sciences, the Russian political strategist, for unitary enterprise

Continuation follows


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