The transaction of year in the market of the share capital - IPO UC Rusal - can appear only fiction. At the price for which Oleg Deripaska wants to sell part of the company, will agree to acquire its shares unless the fool. If only the buyer isn't found not.
Vanity round IPO of the largest Russian aluminum holding as - that caused at once suspicions. Without having sold paper at market and glory peak, why to Deripaska to do it now when the prices of metals not much more came off historical minima, and metallurgists were tired to wait for restoration of demand for the production? Besides, besides foggy prospects of branch at the debutant enough own problems, main from which - huge debt burden and numerous lawsuits with creditors. And not only with them: on the avenue to wealth and to power very many Deripaska crossed the road.
From here, seemingly, and a choice of platforms - Hong Kong and the Parisian Euronext. About prestigious NYSE or at least LSE - words. It is unlikely the exchanges turned away from the scandalous issuer. It is rather, UC Rusal refused their services. And not for economy reasons. These are only professional PR managers are capable to bullshit investors stories that the similar geography will allow to trade in actions 24 hours per day. Deripaska can't simply attract money in territories where against him or his partners judicial claims are submitted, - you look, inadvertently will arrest property (in the London court of compensation in $3 billion for the right sold in 2001 on 20%-a ny share in "RUSAL" the former partner Mikhail Chernoy demands it from Deripaska, and to the USA there is a trial in the claim of the Canadian company Norex Petroleum which accuses one of co-owners of "RUSAL" Victor Vekselberg of money laundering when receiving control over "Yugraneft").
However, suspicions quickly dissipated: placement of shares - the requirement of creditors of "RUSAL", trying in all ways to return the money. Quite reasonable offer. I sold papers - I received money - I repaid debts. Well, or, at least, the part is long. You are afraid of the USA and Great Britain - go to Asia where already almost there was a new world financial center.
Well, god with them, with platforms. And how much now the aluminum magnate quotes the economy? For 10% of the actions offered for sale, Deripaska wants neither more nor less $3 billion. That is for all company - nearly $47 billion (market capitalization plus of $16,8 billion a debt). And after all co-owners of "RUSAL" were going to begin with $30 billion before crisis when the company had no such huge burden, and demand for aluminum of dews every day.
For descriptive reasons it is possible to count and on - to another. Last week analysts of investment banks received company presentation with intimate details of its business in post-crisis year. And what we see? Profit to depreciation and taxes - the most important indicator for a business assessment - last year I made $3,39 billion, and in the first half of the year of this year the loss of $160 million is recorded. It turns out that if to take a classical indicator of an assessment of EV/EBITDA and to count it taking into account last year's results (more than 75% arrived-2008, by the way, it was earned in the first half of the year, that is before crisis), Deripaska wants to sell actions with coefficient 13,8.
But investors, as we know, don't look at last indicators, and try to estimate, how many the company will manage to earn in it, and even next year. It is obvious that much less. For example, in Morgan Stanley believe that this year EBITDA of "RUSAL" will make only about $640 million, and next year - $1,6 billion. Respectively, EV/EBITDA coefficient then will grow to 73,1 and 29,3. And what tell analogs at which usually look in such cases? Average EV/EBITDA of the world aluminum companies for 2010 makes now only 9. As they say, feel a difference!
From where Deripaska has such inquiries and on what he counts? You shouldn't hurry with the answer. Probably, all this европейско - Asian campaign - that other, as the next dexterous trick which secret sense consists in showing to creditors passionate desire to sell actions and to pay off, and then to make a helpless gesture with words: "Well, it didn't develop! " And can be, everything is much simpler, and the buyer is already found. And it is unimportant that the main applicant for purchase of a considerable package, - the Chinese Chinalco - it seems as refused doubtful acquisition. Not for nothing the prime minister - the minister Vladimir Putin a week before last went to China.