The situation round integration of Ukraine into EU and NATO reminds the statement of the heroine of Alexander Kalugin Donna Rosa from the movie "Hello, I am your aunt". I (EU, NATO) (Ukraine) will kiss you (we will accept in the ranks). Then. If you want.
Here and one-day visit of the German chancellor Angela Mergel became an indicative litmus piece of paper as actually affairs at us in the country with eurointegration are. In Europe us see. But not now. And not on those conditions on which we would like.
The aunt Angela arrived!
Positioned a trip of the first person of Germany as a development stage Ukraine - the German relations. Eurooptimists wanted to learn from the chancellor concrete terms of accession of the country to EU and NATO, and also to be convinced of unconditional support by Germany of Ukraine in these questions. Europessimists sought to hear the official statement which would explain the solution of the April summit of NATO in Bucharest when Ukraine didn't join PDCh. Eurorealists perfectly realized what to expect concrete formulations during visit from Angela Merkel isn't necessary. "Sometime", "surely", "we with a great interest observe" - the exchange of courtesies passed top-level. The chancellor managed to sustain the necessary balance between promising statements which the Ukrainian party, and sober assessment of the situation so wanted to hear.
The president Yushchenko poured phrases similar "we understand all difficulties on our way", and after the termination joint the press - conferences was full of the European hopes. Though actually not so there is a lot of reasons for pleasure.
If to speak about prospects of accession of Ukraine to EU, on the next five-years period it is possible to forget about it. Vsevozmozhneyshy forecasts and analytical articles for this subject turn into an unchecked astrological horoscope. It is enough to tell only that at present arrangements are at a stage "as though become more respectable to call association prospect with EU: deeper level of cooperation or quite close rapprochement with the European Union". Ridiculously, but it isn't joyful.
The situation with NATO isn't much more optimistical, but at least isn't so foggy and confused, as the relations Ukraine - EU under which scenario of development already just right to make series.NATO, PDCh - abbreviations from a dreadful dream of those people who are engaged in the European integration.
It is a little theory
The term PDCh heard from screens of the TVs and saw in newspapers a huge number of people. But very few people know that in general is that is behind three treasured letters to which we so aspire.
PDCh is the plan of action concerning membership in NATO. It includes a complex of the politician - economic problems, oboronno - military, questions of resources, safety and food. The country, wishing to join PDCh, has to provide the step-by-step plan of preparation. Actually PDCh - the individual development plan of the country before the introduction in the North Atlantic contract. For today the countries which have joined PDCh, Macedonia, Albania and Croatia are. The last two probabilities with a big share become members of NATO next year.
As Mephistopheles spoke to Goethe, "your theory, my friend, is dry, and the life tree eternally turns green". Actually PDCh - that theory, without having learned which, further to go if it is possible, it is too dangerous. In the itself idea of similar planning is simple and ingenious at the same time. For Ukraine with its unstable political climate need to develop uniform strategy of development of the country is simply saving. After all for today even it isn't known who all - is engaged in coordination of process of the accession to NATO. In view of absence of the uniform controler of efforts each political force can make only to it the clear statements sent only on a gain of sympathies of electorate. And the theory needs to be applied correctly and in the dosed quantities.
Who doesn't give to Ukraine PDCh?
The United States of America agree to provide PDCh to Ukraine already though in December. As argument that supposedly formally the consent of all NATO member states which is necessary for acceptance in the ranks of the full-fledged member of alliance for this purpose isn't required acts. In April Ukraine to PDCh wasn't allowed by France, Germany and Russia. The position of the last is fixed in the Concept of foreign policy of Russia. Free - German "no" accused of a connivance to the Russian interests. But during visit the German chancellor unambiguously let know that the decision on membership of Ukraine in NATO will be made only by NATO and Ukraine. The Ukrainian party wanted to hear it.
Though the present position of Moscow against expansion of alliance is quite explainable and reasoned.After all NATO expansion to the east can easily provoke emergence of second "Iron Curtain" and the following stage of cold war between the West and the East. Half a century the world already was on the verge of the third world. And accession of Ukraine to any program of NATO involves intensity emergence along all western border of Russia. Tension will be heavy to be avoided, after all for certain along border of Russia with NATO member states military forces will be placed.
Than Moscow threatens? Introduction of a visa regime that, of course, between two countries at all won't promote warming of the relations. The main task for half a year till December if Ukraine nevertheless wants to achieve PDCh, - to calm Russia, to create if not positive, then neutral perception of the fact of implementation of the plan of action concerning membership by Ukraine. Though half a year - very relative term. Now more and more politicians understand that the main task in short-term prospect is not the vypytyvaniye at the West European experts of exact term - when Ukraine will acquire the right to join PDCh. Now to the forefront there is a mutual understanding question.
What we have as a result?
In EU us practically directly don't let. For the accession to NATO it is necessary to do something, after all in itself necessary laws and reforms won't arise. And the relation of the simple citizens who have grown up under the influence of the Soviet promotion, to a military alliance not the most positive. The main argument against the entry of Ukraine into NATO opponents of this process call byazatelno military nature of mutual aid between the countries - participants of the contract. Actually membership in the Union imposes the obligation only to react to actions of an aggressor if those are available concerning any of the countries of participants on the country. The country defines nature of reaction independently, that is, to enter military operations absolutely optional.
In short-term prospect Ukraine should aspire not to PDCh, and to implementation of preliminary arrangements which are in essence similar to the contract on membership. These arrangements - the same plan of necessary actions only this time preceding accession to PDCh. But besides especially political correct decisions it is necessary at last - to sort out that the relations with Russia, to give the chance to the people to decide on the relation to a military alliance of NATO and to appoint at the end - that of the ends of the uniform main thing in the European vector of foreign policy.That the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Secretariat of the president and the Verkhovna Rada didn't divide into all a skin still not killed of a bear.