"The power is strong more than ever" - Victor Medvedchuk's which has been legendary disproved by the Maidan this legendary phrase, found in recent months the second life in Ukraine. "They came for a long time", "they took the country by the throat", "now elections will be never" - with such expressions mass media, forums and blogs dazzle. The parliamentary majority grows, the government - under fingers of the president, governors are poured by powers, just right "for atrocities to expel Khoroshkovsky from Gestapo", business press, the rights of parties curtail, mayors and local deputies in large quantities capitulate, administrative resource to local elections increase...
All this so. But, as it will seem today to much strange, other statement is closer to me: the today's power is weak more than ever. Because force of the power is defined not by these primary political signs or formal comparison with potentialities of predecessors. It is defined by ability of the leader and command to resist to threats and calls which arise before society and the state. Such threats - objective and subjective, external and internal - critical weight collected. One were saved for years, others appear, and the third are created with own hand. The uniform team is necessary for their removal or minimization with the high intellectual and moral potential, capable to pursue the effective policy based on understanding of world processes, internal problems and ways of their decision.
So, passed seven months, and reforms in Ukraine didn't begin. The IMF memorandum - the act of capitulation. And not only because the present government, as well as previous, patches holes due to external loans and this with the fact that it is strong - strongly high-ranking tax specialist in a whisper reports: "In a shadow - not 30, not 50, but all 90 percent of economy".The memorandum of the IMF moves as the arch of the main unpopular reforms necessary for rescue of a situation. Actually it, first of all, attempt of the IMF to provide return of allocated money and to fix sources of return in the contract with the irresponsible borrowers, incapable is independent and on - to guarantee another return of the credits. The IMF excites transparency and efficiency of the Ukrainian economy, business a little; rules of the game and real fight against corruption; definition of priority branches and ways of their development.
Perhaps answers to all these questions to us were brought by the strong power? Having occupied a chair on Bank, Yanukovych with the handle in hands long, having knitted eyebrows, I considered empty presidential forms, without having on a table of bills ready to the signature. For the first three months of work the country didn't see a uniform legislative initiative of the president? ! At a boundary of 100 days from Irina Akimova's giving the president submitted the draft of the Program of economic reforms. I will tell about it below. Or at least concepts of any other reforms Yanukovych didn't submit programs still. For example, it is administrative - territorial reform, reform of law-enforcement system, military reform, reform of local government, pension reform, reform of military industrial complex, reform of housing and communal services and many others.
Now about the Program of economic reforms slightly more in details. Even after fluent reading it becomes clear that it is, actually, any not the program. The program has to answer simple questions: who that, where when, for what means, with an exit to which indicators has to make for achievement of stated purposes. These requirements to development of nation-wide programs are fixed in the law. Similar Yanukovych in "program" isn't present anything. Neither concrete actions, nor responsible for their performance, measured (and respectively, checked) indicators, at least rough estimates of resource requirements - anything similar. Most often in the program as the boundary of achievement of the purpose is mentioned 2014. And it isn't necessary to guess, for what event it is dated.
All right, we will consider that it yet the program, and a certain concept, strategy, or a frame of reference of Yanukovych on national economy development. But also in this case the system left not complete, fragmentary, with gumboils and distortions.
In - the first, in the document aren't present the main thing - priorities.In the conditions of sharp falling of economy and social standards, high unemployment, a deep budgetary hole, especially against a world economic crisis to smear thin budgetary oil on all sandwich it won't turn out. It is necessary to concentrate limited budgetary resources and levers of stimulation, motivation which the state, only on several most priority, backbone directions has. They in the program aren't present. Neither on economy as a whole, nor in the industry, in scientifically - the technological sphere - anywhere. What has to become points of growth, with which production Ukraine will borrow, unique, a niche in the world markets? Not clearly. It is clear, what not from the present - metallurgy and chemistry: the rate on today's structure of export would be pernicious.
In - the second, in Yanukovych's program weren't places for key, if not the most important, the creation direction in Ukraine of competitive economy - energy saving. The mention was deserved only by decrease in consumption of gas in housing and communal services. And in vain. Because, spending for unit of production made in Ukraine in four - six times more energy resources, than other countries of Europe, we will always graze back, irrespective of progress on other directions. Unless it isn't obvious, what in the program numerical reference points of decrease in power consumption have to be specified accurately, by years and branches? Behind these indicators not only economy, but also policy - both internal, and external, independent or, as today, dependent on others.
In - the third, serious fears are caused as a whole by the power section. On the one hand, sale stages in private hands of power generation facilities are rather in detail painted, the attention to systems of distribution of gas is paid. With another - in Yanukovych's program at all there is no task also and, respectively, actions for cardinal change of structure of power balance of Ukraine. And very much at all wouldn't prevent to specify, on how many percent annually Ukraine will reduce a share of natural gas and to increase a share of coal, nuclear and hydropower, in how many time the share of renewables, etc. has to increase. Why it isn't present in the program? Don't know? I don't trust. Other answer arises: interest of personal business of the high officials who haven't bad earned and nowadays earning on Russian gas, much more exceeds national interest of Ukraine on providing power, and together with it - economic and political security.
In - the fourth, in Yanukovych's program even externally didn't try to cover a dominant of interest of large business, the largest. Therefore in it isn't present words about demonopolization, it isn't provided incentives and effective levers on ensuring transparency in property structure, on creation of conditions for the honest economic competition, to emphasis on small and medium business.
And the last - it is possible to laugh, it is possible to cry, but the Program of economic reforms of Yanukovych doesn't contain even a mention of corruption. There is no corruption among the main factors constraining development of economy and killing an economic initiative of citizens. No, respectively, and list of actions for corruption counteraction. In the Union there was no sex, and Ukraine - the zone closed for corruption? Or for conversations on it?
Except for above-stated "trifles" the presidential committee on Irina Akimova's economic reforms is urged to be engaged in all other reforms. That which exists in parallel with Governmental committee on the economic reforms headed by Mykola Azarov and in parallel with vice-the prime minister on reforms Sergey Tigipko who too it seems is engaged in economic reforms if to judge on distribution of duties between vice-prime ministers … It is obvious that in team which calls itself strong, the Control center of flight had to be one. The Cabinet which has real levers for implementation, information and institutional memory would have to become it. But to Cabinet of Ministers, judging by a personnel set, the part of the performer was assigned, but also, on Bank not unreasonably decided that the system can't reform itself - she won't hurt herself. For this reason came to a conclusion: it is necessary to create an external platform on generation of reforms for what created "nalepochny" structure instead of making such platform, from all points of view suitable for this purpose, the National Security and Defense Council - the constitutional body with absolutely lawful mechanism of carrying out discussions, acceptances, registrations and implementation of the decisions obligatory for all structures, including Cabinet of Ministers.
But, while cut off from influence and information Raisa Bogatyreva continues to decorate with herself the National Security and Defense Council, Irina Akimova is occupied with creation of a matrix of the reforms, urged to transform the starry-eyed wishes stated by the president in the mentioned program in June, to already brief assuming existence of accurate terms of carrying out these or those changes; definition responsible for them;study with the ministries of details of reforms; formulation of the short stories brought in the legislation; accurate fixing of resources to the directions etc. According to stories of eyewitnesses, Irina Mikhaylovna's table represents today a platform for school collecting waste paper. Generally certainly, in a form. But in many respects - and according to the contents. In hot discussions the director of Effective management Fund recalled by Rinat Akhmetov Natalya Izosimova with the invariable experts of the Mackenzie company more and more reminding going on tour in Ukraine Smokie or Suzy Quatro, being once trotters helps to deal with all this economy to it. Forming of the similar matrix, urged to become a basis at least for formation of future budget (which already on September 15 the government has to transfer to Rada) and as a maximum of all economic policy of the power, - business troublesome even for solid and highly intellectual team. Alas, these conditions aren't present.
In - the first because Victor Yanukovych reminds Evgeny Leonov's hero in the movie "Gentlemen of Good Luck" more and more: "Here I remember. Here - I don't remember", to be exact: "Here I reform. And here - I collect". As you understand, these processes mutually exclusive.
In - the second because about any solid team of adherents of the speech isn't present. And it isn't intrigues, and - la "as Klyuev to spite of Azarov cut down Seminozhenko". The draft of the Action program of the government Bank saw in two days prior to the estimated statement it on Cabinet of Ministers. He resembled the presidential program of reforms approximately the same as Yury Andropov on Woody Allen. Stopped. But here the Tax code fostered by the prime minister, the Ministry of Finance and tax specialists, subsequently in down scarified by the president, Akimova and Ave. fraction "got out". Not to mention opposition and businessmen. In principle, discussion, especially intra imperious, is extremely important. However, I will remind that it serves business of search of the optimum decision, instead of insolvency demonstration. The tax code is a certain quintessence of all events in present "the strong power". Promised to accept in July - couldn't, having shown irresponsibility; with contents of the Code completely disappointed, having reduced tax reform in the first option to increase in the repressive rights of GNAU; instead of becoming the first victory of the power, the Tax Code became its first public failure, having caused deep irritation in all business - Wednesday;procedure of its improvement with a row vice-premier options "we tin-we solder", showed not discussion, and fight for powers and public relations - dividends between members of one team; and at last - that, solemn data of all practices on Andrey Klyuev's table on purpose "tyuningation", instead of carrying out basic changes.
Half measures, half steps, semi-reforms. And thus - obvious inability to emphasize the positive taking place against a large-scale negative. Despite the chegoizvolitizm of "box" dictated by loyalty of the vast majority of owners of channels, the power has no information policy - it it simply failed. With speakers - an enormous problem. With messages - still big. "A penalty fee will enter", "a penalty fee won't enter", "Cadillac" didn't give … but the sponsor" presented, "Anybody won't carry out the IMF memorandum", "We will keep IMF promises to a letter", and such - the sea. Bifurcation of words and affairs becomes visible to the naked eye. Yanukovych packs refuses election and postelective pledges. And thus nobody takes the trouble to explain to people - why. Actually, even correction of the promised demands dialogue with society. What circumstances compelled the president and his command to refuse the promised: not to raise tariffs; not to raise a retirement age; to provide the status of civil servants to physicians and teachers; to raise pensions and salaries; to enter contract army since 2011; to delegate powers and resources on places, to provide five-year tax vacation to small business etc., etc.
Change of the vector declared during elections on 180 degrees, is called as a shock therapy. Somebody allowed itself work to explain why so occurred? Somebody tried to make society the conscious ally in carrying out reforms, instead of the victim? Somebody thought what already is quickly enough inertial - the loyal electorate will understand an events essence in the country? Or on Bank consider that the people contemplating show of Kiselyov, will need years to understand:owing to policy of new team tops have to punch two holes in a belt in order that to a growing stomach was where to be located, and bottoms have to punch the same two holes in order that trousers didn't fall?
People, of course, still hope, still are afraid, but they not the blind... Let them be not told yet on TV: that at the highest level the command to create in the countryis giventhree main streams - "A family, Yura Enakiyevsky and Rinat";that governors demand from mayors a tribute, and not only electoral; that grandmothers will pay billions for Firtash and his partners; that Germans receive from Russia gas on 110-150 dollars, and Bulgarians who signed with Russia so enslaving contract at so enslaving prices, as Tymoshenko, replaced the government, broke off the contract with Russia and now receive gas 90 dollars cheaper, than we; that roads at us are constructed 80 million UAH for kilometer, and grain from Agrarian fund is on sale on 800 UAH. But the TV isn't necessary to people in order that the nobility from relatives, acquaintances or on own experience - anywhere the volume of the bribes established by the pomaranchevy power, didn't fall. And which - where even I grew. Someone appeased appetites of militia, customs, firefighters, officials, physicians, teachers? And thus, driving about on svezhezaasfaltirovanny to "animal tracks" on "Mercedes" and "Cadillacs" by sharing the cost presented by subordinates, the power wants that people with delight started paying taxes?
As - that at a meeting of the Ukrainian editors with Russian the ambassador of the neighboring state gave the definition to that such strong state:"The strong state is what collects taxes".Personally I agreed with it, having suggested to expand some definition, having added to it:in - the first,"... from all", because 200 UAH of edinonalozhnik are, of course, small, but according to the guru Ukrainian tax, the long-term deputy knowing about taxes in our country everything that it is possible to know about them only, - "large business in Ukraine, using minimization schemes, one pays - two percent of that would have to pay". If you sell the car or the apartment - you pay a tax. And if Chernovetsky sells bank, it will get off only with gratitude to the one who allowed it to re-register before sale actions to offshore Cyprus and to pay nothing in Ukraine. However, the bank sold not only Chernovetsky... And why only bank?. Two weeks ago seven controlling stakes of regional gases were sold. All transactions - through an offshore. Now someone will have not 75, but 90 percent of regional gases. The budget from it won't receive anything. And here NAK "Naftogaz" actively will start preparing now for restructuring of milliard debts of regional gases before state company. And anybody won't reach Dmitry Vasilyevich because in documents at - on Kostusev in Antimonopoly committee absolutely different names an ofshorok and who stands behind them - g will appear - N Khoroshkovsky never learns.Because by the Ukrainian legislation it doesn't enter its competence as the total monopolism in the market "multioffshore Shiva" doesn't pose threat of economic security of the country.
In - the second,"... also doesn't plunder them, aiming at the development, first of all, correctly and accurately certain priorities". Well, in a present Ukrainian situation we already dealt with these moments. I want to notice only in passing that during creation of present executive power certain especially creative members of a president's team had rather progressive, on ours, certainly, to measures, plans. They consisted in the following: "The people, small business should allow to sigh. Most of all the people suffer not from large predators, and from blood-sicking insects. Links which terrorize the simple Ukrainian, small business, have to be cleaned. Prisons have to be filled by all these extortioners from checking structures and the petty officials taking from one thousand to hundred. It will give the chance to people to sigh. Without paying in a bribe, they will begin to pay taxes. The budget which will give the chance to develop, build, cut red ribbons will be filled. To take from the filled stream of 10 percent - it is more honest and better, than to extort 40-50 from the shoaled budgetary rivulets. To people it is good, to the country it is good and to us it is quite good".
Didn't restrain. Revenge so revenge. In everything: from мовы to language; from short rations to bulimia; from federalism before recovery of the kuchminsky Constitution; from bronze in Mezhigorye to mosaic gold; from ambitious thought of occurrence into history as reformer to "three streams"; from promises to unite the country to opportunity it centrally to milk; from promises to bring an order to selective application of laws; from judicial reform to a cudgel in the form of the Supreme council of justice (compelling judges to look in power eyes, trying to guess that it is necessary to make: the song to sing or kill somebody); from reforms in law enforcement agencies to their transformation into retaliatory groups, headed by courageous and silly generals with calculators instead of eyes.
Here a way of the strong power in seven months which conducts strategically only to one - prospects of Ukraine шагренево thaw. And tactically - to loss of a rating of the incumbent president and his team. About inevitable decrease in trust to the present power speak both in team, and in opposition, with impatience expecting fresh sociological post-holiday measurements which have to show a tendency.Honey time of the power comes to an end. It obviously and objectively. "Everything, however, goes not as would have to, - one person very close to Yanukovych shared supervision with me. - But when the rating will decrease, the president will force them to work. And to work as it is necessary". That... I - only pro because I don't want to "badly Yanukovych", and want to "well Ukraine". But only anything at Victor Fedorovich it won't turn out. In - the first, because doctoring of the country unfortunately far not the only task of the president though that would have to be. In - the second because even in that part of his head which thinks of reforms, there is no understanding of their strategic direction.
Unlike Yushchenko, Yanukovych carefully prepares for negotiations. Unlike Yushchenko, he reads everything (and not just "tasty") reports of SBU and two investigations, leaving on them marks. Unlike Yushchenko, Yanukovych tries to penetrate into a course of reformational practices. But after all we know that our president isn't the intellectual leader of the nation. However, he doesn't know it. At the beginning of 90-x the head a press - the Ministry of Foreign Affairs center Valery Ingulsky learned younger generation of journalists: "If you visited the country one day, it seems to you that you can write about it the novel. If lived there year - that the story. And if lived all life - God grant that on the story sufficed". To what it I?. The other day from - under Victor Fedorovich Yanukovych's feather, in additives to available to two, ministerial and kabminovsky, there was the third option... military reform. The Supreme Commander was inspired by the report of intelligence services on duty on reform passing in the country which, the minimum of years on five, lags behind in this case Ukraine. In what country? Yes well in what else!. And who will object the president?
And here we pass to "in - the third". To force to work on - it is possible for another of who has a potential. In our case is the biggest problem. Yanukovych will see falling of a rating and... will force to cook "soup from an axe"? Whom will force? Mogilyov? Tsushko? Ezhelya? Hivrich? Kulinyaka? Prisyazhnyuka? Eventually, Azarova or Mackenzie? "And than they are worse than the predecessors? " - someone will surely ask. Yes in that is continually that it is better nothing. It with the budget everything is worse. The funnel of world crisis everything twists more densely. Contradictions in the country are aggravated. Level of corruption grows. To cope with it, stronger have to come, than that were earlier; cleverer and less greedy.And came same with single exceptions which, however, were and as a part of the old power. How Sharapov there spoke, sitting opposite to Humpbacked? "Here also mine will manage to me nonsense and greed at the most expensive price". If there is no miracle, nonsense and greed will ruin Yanukovych's team and him. And it is fine, but a problem thatthe qualitative alternative to this team now isn't present. And problems, threats and calls from which the power has to protect the country, - are.
However at manifestation of negative rating tendencies, the power will start saving not the country, and. Even developing positive steps - promising to reduce number of licenses, terms of delivery of permissions, to enter responsibility of officials and pleasing desperate there was an UEFA, - the power continues to work with old pig-iron methods: to increase an external debt, to provide the tax and price reserve for large business, manually to settle the budget, to bypass tenders, to plunder stolen and to lie, lie and once again to lie in the TV. The actions concerning business of other political flowers, discrimination of other parties, a ban on meetings, retaliatory raids of tax police the power thrusts the people in кастрюльку, covers and adds fire. What group of voters in seven months was made happy by Victor Yanukovych? Any. For race of populism to which Victor Fedorovich in the fall 2004-го the pension surcharges and which subsequently gave start, being at war among themselves, untwisted Yushchenko and Tymoshenko, - this power has no resources. Easier to breathe to bottoms didn't become.
NATO to us any more doesn't threaten (that is, we to it). Ukrainian, diligence of responsible national eunuchs, - too. Than to support a rating? The simplest option - power methods: crackdown, censorship strengthening, arrests, fear. Similar actions in case of preservation of the outlined tendency don't remain unnoticed in the West, the kind relation with which, actually, Yanukovych values. Because there - in Brussels, Berlin and Washington - anybody so scornfully and obviously doesn't point to it to its place, as in Moscow. But violation of all possible rights by the power, security officers and vessels will spoil Yanukovych's relations even with sleepy and busy own crisis by the civilized world. And then it as Kuchma in 2000 after "cassette" scandal, will finally and irrevocably nestle on the Kremlin wall. For this reason, the one who considers that the country is at peak of repressions and already gave to Russia everything that could, can be mistaken.
However the power thus in any way won't solve the problems, that is urged to solve for the country. Way on which there was Yanukovych, - deadlock. And if it doesn't descend from it, it is necessary to think to the president not of how to get the second penal and as to get the first up to the end.