Long ago all predicted and many expected crisis of the Ukrainian market of real estate, seemingly, took his main "players" unawares. Because their explanations of the reasons of the incident and exit recipes from the created situation testify only to unwillingness seriously to speak about an events essence - it is so possible to rave only with big перепуга.
The brick unexpectedly to anybody and never will fall down the head.
M. Bulgakov, "Master and Margarita"
The housing market of Ukraine based on corruption and excess profits of construction corporations, reaches a deadlock and here - here will fail. The builders who have become related in years of growth of the market with corrupted officials, blame for decrease in demand of whom and anything, only not the transcendental prices of the product.
Frightening the population of the future reduction of volumes of construction and the subsequent rise in prices, they try to stimulate demand on become in recent years gold square meters. Here only the argument sometimes doesn't maintain any criticism.
The other day on a site of Construction association of Ukraine the draft of the address to the President, NBU was published and we designate the interested. Speaking about the negative tendencies which have outlined in branch, builders ask the power to enter amendments into the system of mortgage lending, to lift limits on terms of housing loans. Indeed, according to Goskomstat, for the first half of the year 2008 volumes of construction works were reduced by 1,1%, preparation of construction sites - for 3,6%. However, whether only interest rates of banks and the become tougher credit conditions are guilty in the circumstances? Isn't it time for severe truth to look in eyes, misters builders? !
Origin of system of the mortgage lending, happened in the beginning of the century became the reason of construction boom in the country. The people had an opportunity to buy yet not earned apartments and to live in them, gradually giving money. Thus the concept "boom" is applicable, more, not to number of the built square meters, and to their cost:for this period, for example, the price of the one-room apartment in Kiev grew more than by 10 times, regions didn't lag behind also. Construction volumes, however, didn't grow so impressive rates. According to the same Goskomstat, from 2000 to 2007 the total amount of the living spaces put into operation grew only twice (from 5 558 thousand sq.m to 10 244 thousand sq.m), without having reached indicators of 1990 (17 447 thousand sq.m). The effective and transparent mechanism of distribution of the land plots - the main asset in construction business - it wasn't thus created. Therefore "the official - the builder - the supplier of materials - the intermediary - the buyer" soon headed a chain the official, skimming off intending obviously not to it the cream in this market. However, all chain flourished in those days, and even the ordinary buyer, actively borrowing money, bought, sold, and too earned.
The declared reasons of so prompt rise in price - growth of cost of the earth under construction, labor, materials. The secret reasons, we will repeat, others: lack of the transparent mechanism of assignment of the land plots and growth of appetites of the corrupted officials involved in it and developers. Well builders didn't want to earn usual for their foreign colleagues of 5-10% of the invested money in the growing market. There was no wish to have 7-10 summer period of payback of the project when to beat off enclosed it is possible in a year - two. And why to build and sell three houses one million when it is possible to sell one for three! It is known of appetites of officials and their contribution to "public business of providing each Ukrainian by worthy housing" less but to illustrate this contribution, we will quote interview to the Zerkalo Nedeli newspaper of one of active participants of the market, the president of construction company "21 eyelids" Lev Partskhaladze:
"L.P.: As for a question of pleasure of communication with intermediaries, I can assure you that today we buy 99% of sites from any private and natural persons.
Correspondent: So it too is good?
L. P.: Too it is good. If the state can't effectively sell the land, let the private trader will be engaged in it.
Correspondent: Also will put to itself in a pocket?
L.P.: It is necessary to choose the smaller from two evils. So I realize the project" quicker.
Quite diplomatically, but having ears will hear! "Any" painfully familiar "individuals", probably, receiving a modest salary of the state official, but driving about on "cool" foreign cars and living in the spacious apartments bought on got bribes, suddenly became "the smaller evil". In private conversations which, however, nevertheless became property of the public, builders repeatedly sounded the million sums of bribes for informal permissions and "nevosprepyatsvovaniye" in the solution of the land question that didn't exempt them, however, and from official payments in local budgets. But all this told "not under record" had no visible effect. In any case these revelations of any unknown "sources"! It is enough to remember what "zilch" all jabber which throughout long time "opposition" to Chernovetsky's clique in Kiyevrada plaid about turned back. What sums were called, what hectares, in what places!. As was "soromno" to Katerinchuk! And - any result, whether also any reaction from Cabinet of Ministers, the Verkhovna Rada or the President.
However, the result nevertheless is, as well as reaction - the market reacted.
The market of housing started stagnating at the beginning of 2007, long before restrictions in the sphere of mortgage lending and manifestation of consequences of financial crisis. By the way, in normal, excuse for an epithet, the countries this crisis was reflected, first of all, in real estate cost. But only not at us! Builders and sellers of "vtorichka" stubborn held (and continue to hold) the prices at former level. However, the first started including in the range, instead of low-demanded two - three-room chorus 200-300 thousand dollars in poor residential districts, housing the house-keeper - a class. And the second - on - to the present to bargain. While secretly, at final coordination of the price with the real buyer, without reducing it in initial announcements of sale, but all-.
The main outcome of last year a residential real estate wound - from the market left the speculative capital, demand considerably fell, the number of transactions was significantly reduced. The reason is clear - absence of economic prerequisites for is unreal high cost. In these conditions of only banks and the realtors who have started carefully to hint in the comments on discrepancy of level of the income of the population of cost of square meter reasonably led.Builders, without wishing to break black schemes of distribution of sites and to agree with suppliers about reduction of prices of materials, continue with stupid obstinacy to broadcast about fast activization of the demand, a rise in prices assumed just tomorrow or reduction of volumes of construction that, again - will raise the prices.
In this regard words of one dear deputy director of reputable civil engineering firm are indicative. Gore - the expert expressed opinion that potentially inhabitants of Kiev can annually buy about 5 million sq.m of housing, and without attraction of the credits (it at the present - that the prices! - Bus), and "the current calm - only a seasonal factor because the housing on - former is liquid goods" (we are afraid, the season will be vaguely long - the Bus). Interestingly, it is a bluff behind which the despair and a panic, or a habit to give out wished for the valid hides? After all 1,4 million Kiev "squares" completely handed over by builders (Goskomstat data for 2007) in the last two years don't disperse and the most part of transactions is credited. Mentioned "expert" can be understood: I put not all that well, creditors with representatives of agency concerning bankruptcy already knock, and, probably, and break doors, sworn brothers - officials demand new financial injections under the threat of permanent elections. But it is impossible to bear such rubbish deprived not only economic, but also common sense! Especially as in approach of these hard times you are guilty (not personally you, dear "expert", and "you" all together taken). After all it was necessary to assume that the people have all - will end either money, or desire to buy housing at such price, and the same officials "will gorge on" or will switch over to buy square meters in other countries where these meters are cheaper (by the way, thanks to that their local colleagues - bureaucrats, to put it mildly, people more decently). Left abroad and capable to earn money and wishing to put them in real estate "minds".
As a result, the sad picture sets in in the market: the greedy bureaucrats loving them builders and the poor people …
We will add that until recently the segment of commercial real estate is profitable, but also on it the first thunder already thundered. This summer for 1,5-2 months began seasonal sales tenants - sellers of clothes that testifies to inordinacy of rent rates (150-200 dollars for sq.m a month) in the conditions of decreasing demand from buyers earlier. According to forecasts of experts, outflow of investments becomes notable soon and in this segment.
So to do? To hope on next "the Ukrainian break"? On the "vivifying" presidential program about "affordable housing"? On the legislative genius of ours нардепов? Alas, all this company obviously isn't capable to make though something that in the market of real estate there was suddenly "miracle". To it has to precede or accompany its general "economic miracle" - but it, as they say, not with our happiness and not with our governors.
There is one. Considering that now builders and their potential consumers are on the different parties of the barricades, to everyone we will give the advice.
We will recommend to THEM somewhat quicker to understand that the main thing for the seller (producer) the partner is, according to market canons, his majesty the BUYER. And, having realized, will switch over, eventually, to satisfaction of its pressing needs - housing construction for reasonable prices. To sound publicly real main problems of branch, to call a round table with representatives of the public, the power, contractors. You look, and politicians will want to be advertized on the solution of national problems. And, not development next worthless and impracticable (at invariable presence of corruption components) crediting programs. And, first of all, creation of conditions for transparent distribution of sites under building and only at open public auctions. Also try to reduce profitability, moderate appetites, misters, - it is possible to work and not for 100% of profit.
To us - to link teeth, to fasten and live in two-room "хрущобе" with two children and the mother-in-law, without buying real estate at nowadays existing prices, having put thereby on short rations of developers and the "lured" officials. Remember that at the similar prices wealthier Czechs, Bulgarians, Poles, Turks and Germans don't allow to buy to themselves housing. Not to take the credits on unreasonable rates in adverse conditions that won't lose and already available housing. And patiently to wait when the ugly izba of the domestic construction industry will turn to us the rehouse, to the official - the back.
It is clear that these councils - from area of good wishes. But if someone is able to offer something more real and cheerful - let will offer.