There will be a bread, there will be also a song. With development in agriculture of the market relations this proverb which has been thought up still in socialist Ukraine, gradually loses the sense. To the state every year everything is more difficult to govern the relation with the grain-growers who have passed into the private sector. This year the situation can become aggravated to a limit. To Ukraine quite on forces to export 13-14 million tons of grain. Considering the price in the world market (to 400 dollars for ton), it is possible to expect total orientation of peasants on grain export abroad.
The government won't be able to offer competitive purchase prices, and from grain crisis in domestic market will rescue only rigid quoting of export.
If you remember, to Yanukovych's government for it seriously got. Reached intervention of the American ambassador and carrying out massive campaigns in mass media. But the Cabinet didn't reel, and it managed to prevent destabilization of the grain market.
It is interesting that government actions were abused then also by the opposition which is today in power. Now to it remains nothing how to enter drastic measures, having limited grain export. Thus there is one complexity - to explain need of this step to the WTO management. Having entered this organization, we, as we know, assumed certain obligations for liberalization of commodity streams.
Certainly, we won't shake the world market. At all importance of the Ukrainian grain, leading players on it there are Argentina, Australia, EU, Canada and the USA. But actions of Ukraine are capable to influence the world prices that, actually, it and showed last year.
There is one more factor, quite capable to sadden a holiday of the reaped crop. It is the cost of future bread on counters of the Ukrainian shops. According to the Ministry of Economics, since the beginning of year bread from a flour of the first grade rose in price for 25,1% - to 2,99 UAH for kilogram, including in July - for 3,5%. Bakers demand a raising of retail prices, refusing to work to itself at a loss. The first an impact wasn't stood by the city hall of Kiev, having allowed to raise in July of the Bread of Kiev company the prices of social grades of bread by 42,8-82,9%.
Most likely, we will see chain reaction at first in million-plus cities already soon, and then on all cities and rural lands. Tymoshenko understands it, and tries заруч