After the question of deliveries of air defense - the Chain armor complexes to not democratic Middle Eastern modes sputtered out, large-scale "weapon" scandals some time avoided Ukraine. But in August 2008 suddenly it "appeared" that the Georgian snipers attacking South Ossetia, armed thanks to Kiev. Taking into account December PDCh - prospects and Ukraine, and Georgia - opening turned out peculiar.
The next aggravation of the conflict between Georgia and its aspiring "on will" autonomies doesn't surprise: opposition is about twenty years old, and from time to time the latent stage is replaced by the sharp. Present crisis is in many respects connected with aspiration of Tbilisi to join NATO. Taking into account that in the block don't accept candidates with territorial problems, the Georgian authorities are interested in the fastest suppression of "dissent" within own frontiers. Anybody especially doesn't count on a final decision of the Abkhazian and South Ossetia questions, but at least temporarily it is necessary to calm down dissatisfied areas until the end of the current year. In turn, revolting territories don't plan to join North Atlantic alliance definitely, and that the most important, find full support at Russia. At such deals it isn't necessary to expect silent and peaceful resolution of all problem questions especially as unrecognized republics довольствовать small (in April Georgia "tempted" Abkhazia with "an unlimited autonomy") don't want, and Tbilisi doesn't plan to release them in independent swimming.
Distinctions of geopolitical views state for a long time interested parties not only at diplomatic level. Periodic firing, from time to time - explosions, aviation "walks" and rough clarification of the status and powers of peacekeepers - "peace" relationship of Georgia and its autonomies steadily deliver plots for news releases. And at the beginning of August, 2008 the worthy place in these news was taken also by Ukraine.
Kiev for a long time suspect of excessive sympathy for Tbilisi and after two states decided to go to NATO in one sheaf, their relationship underwent closer attention. For today the best that found "close attention" is a scandal over hypothetical delivery of arms for the Georgian snipers.
We will remind, on the night of August second South Ossetia underwent attack from Georgia therefore was lost six people. The parties traditionally accused each other at the beginning of firefight, and next night attack repeated. Till a certain moment its current was "standard": Ossetians accused opponents of preparation of acts of terrorism and pulling up of armies, "mother country" suggested an autonomy to agree "on - good". But on August 2 the authorities of the unrecognized republic found "Ukraine - the American trace" then opposition densely removed on the international level.
The Ukrainian party at once disproved the mediated participation in the conflict (delivery of rifles and training of snipers). According to representatives of the Ministry of Defence, nobody was engaged in "education" of military shots. I confirmed it and the head of defensive department Yury Ekhanurov who in turn specified that illegal arms supplies to Georgia weren't, and legally to sell it nobody can forbid the Ukrainian company "Ukrspetseksport". "If someone buys the Ukrainian weapon, it means that it is in demand in the world. We have a lot of excess weapon and we try to sell it, but only to those countries concerning which there is no international embargo on traffic in arms", - the minister reported.
Yury Ekhanurov's remark reasonably: the international sanctions which would limit weapon purchase and sale by Georgia, don't exist. At the same time, the situation when one country makes the weapon, and another - is ready to buy it, is quite logical, and difficultly to look for crime structure against conscience here. Though the Ossetian management tries: the president of South Ossetia Eduard Kokoity considers that "death of our children, including, and on conscience of these countries (Ukraine and the USA - "Detail")". While one deal with "conscience", the issue of fact of deliveries of the Ukrainian weapon to Georgia remains open. And here the question of degree of guilt of our state in others conflict tries to close the Ministry of Foreign Affairs."Ukraine consistently supports need of settlement of the conflict only peacefully, on the basis of territorial unity and the sovereignty of Georgia", - is spoken in the official comment of foreign policy department. Questions - questions, but that for Ukraine scandal, to put it mildly, not at the right time - the fact.
Ghost of December
The situation which developed following the results of the April summit of NATO in Bucharest, such is that now makes to Ukraine sense in voyenno - the political relation to be more silent than water and herbs are lower. That is successfully to carry out the international doctrines, carefully to meet all conditions of already existing joint programs with Alliance, and just in case - actively to be on friendly terms with all key countries. Certainly, now position of Georgia where is worse. But, in - the first, apparently, the West gravitates to idea to consider in December of PDCh small wholesale (and the probability of is great that the Georgian problems "will drown" not only Tbilisi), and, in - the second, scandal with probably illegal arms supplies badly is entered in the concept is exemplary - indicative behavior of our country. And let the speech doesn't go about support of the international terrorist organizations - but the deposit - that remains.
Ukraine from - for "the Ossetian incident" has no chances to spoil the relations with strategic partners. Moreover, some experts consider policy of the USA - one of the reasons of an aggravation of the Caucasian conflicts. In their opinion, now George Bush is focused on triumphal completion of career. And PDCh for Georgia and Ukraine quite fits into his dreams. Respectively, for today as main "recipients" of potential "deposit" those western countries which are inclined to listen attentively to opinion of Russia act. The most influential among them France (the truth, results of communication of Victor Yushchenko and Nicolas Sarkozy allow if not to hope for the best then to count on something) and Germany (recently in Kiev Angela Merkel confirmed that Ukraine in NATO wait, but more and more "sometime"). The slightest disapproval of these countries - and the Ukrainian Plan of action concerning membership risks to become very remote prospect: the pier, why to alyansovsky "old men" to agree on cooperation with unreliable partners?
As it was already mentioned, Russia has on a position of the states which aren't welcoming expansion of NATO to the east, essential impact. For the Russian Federation sniper scandal can become a pleasant gift with which it is possible to shoot down at once two hares.Any circumstances discrediting Georgia are favorable to Moscow, and a zameshannost of Ukraine in them - an additional bonus. The leadership of the Russian Federation clashes for a long time with Tbilisi on the soil, including, and destinies of unrecognized republics. On the one hand, destabilization of the Georgian situation turned in recent years into a small Russian hobby. With another - force is entered by elementary territorial interests: it isn't excluded that independent Abkhazia and South Ossetia will quickly stop being those and will pass "under a hand of fraternal people" but even if it won't occur - anyway nowadays unrecognized republics remain in a zone of the Russian influence. Now Moscow teeters on the brink: officially doesn't approve separatist tendencies, but in practice supports them "financially". The informal opinion is less reserved:" From appeals to the world to which while our foreign policy department is limited, it is necessary to pass to resolute actions on protection of the Russian interests in the Caucasus and citizens of the Russian Federation which the majority of inhabitants of South Ossetia and Abkhazia" is, - the deputy of the State Duma of the Russian Federation Semyon Bagdasarov considers. In the circumstances any mistake of Georgia can be used against it. And participation in the conflict of "third parties" ("thanks to" the fact of existence of the fresh weapon conflict for this role against the will Ukraine marks), in turn, justifies the Russian intervention: not Moscow the first began …
Except locally - the Caucasian advantage, Russia can take a maximum pleasant of advantage large-scale - to force "sniper incident" to work against others PDCh - initiatives. Any attempt of Ukraine to slip out the sphere of the Russian interests at once provokes large-scale ideological counteraction: from support of local NATO - opponents before threats to redirect rockets and to introduce visas. Georgia, in turn, "is lucky" not less. Conflict escalation in the Caucasus with a big share of probability risks for some time to bury dreams of Tbilisi in the shortest terms to enter NATO. As it was already mentioned, with a big share of probability Ukraine will go to Alliance a set with Georgia, and taking into account a present state of affairs - most likely, won't go … And the zameshannost of Ukraine in the stranger (and very unpleasant in legal relations) the military conflict is quite "qualitative" burdening circumstance which in close proximity to the Russian borders can please opponents of idea of presence of NATO only.
Everything that now it is necessary to do to Ukraine is faded to beat off. To deny presence, to prove legality of transactions (in case the fact of their commission is confirmed), "to throw a switch" (the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine already shared opinion that in an aggravation of the Caucasian conflict the inefficiency of the Russian peacekeepers is in many respects guilty). The bases for large-scale actions aren't present - it is a question simply of unpleasant incident. It is a pity only that this "small incident" does December NATO - prospects by even more illusive.