There will be early elections and parliament, and the President …

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On materials "The center of researches of political values of "AKSIA" Yury Krymov, "preparedPhrase

" The new coalition is impossible. Yushchenko made a mistake. The Party of Regions will be included into the new coalition at any deal. The president has nobody to go on elections. The work of parliament based on the situational majority is possible.

On September 3 the President of Ukraine Victor Yushchenko promised to dismiss the Verkhovna Rada and to declare early parliamentary elections if during the constitutional term - 30 days - the new coalition isn't created. In this regard "The center of researches of political values of "AKSIA" addressed to political experts with a question:"Whether the new coalition will be created? ".

Vadim Karasyov(director of Institute of global strategy): "The new coalition won't be. Despite of that in parliament there can be any interfractional parliamentary combinations. After all the way from a parliamentary combination, for example, in the form of PR and BYuT, to the coalition in the same structure, rather difficult, and on this way is many obstacles. The coalition died and it could write out already the certificate on death, but to write out the birth certificate of the new coalition I didn't hurry. Therefore, the new coalition isn't present and won't be, there will be new early elections at the beginning, or in the second decade of December, 2008".

Andrey Yermolaev(president of the Center of the social researches "Sofia"): "In this situation the new coalition already loses meaning. Stable work at the new coalitions, for example as a part of PR - BYuT, or that is even less probable, PR - WELL, won't be. The conflicts to the President will be provided to such coalition, there will be big problems with government formation. It will destabilize a situation of each political force as the question price future elections, ratings and I any more don't tell about presidential races. Also there are ideological moments. Despite of statements which now proceed from the President and his environment about the coalition of regionals, byutovets and communists, it actually information duck. We deal with the classical political temporary pact. In it there is also a revenge element from BYuT towards the Secretariat of the President who a long time was engaged in discredit of byutovets and the governments.There is a calculation on interception of the power and interception of an initiative of political reform, and also there is the preventive measure connected with blocking of attempts of a president's team to destroy the coalition at the expense of discredit of madam Tymoshenko. It is a political course which has short-term prospect.

Yushchenko made today a certain mistake in the performance as necessarily I identified myself and part of the team with almost only last patriots, and all others wrote down in enemies. I think that such position of the President won't be apprehended by the Ukrainian political class. It is a call which each political force will answer. Early parliamentary elections will be. And presidential party on these elections will be most weakened. Moreover, I think that declaration as the President of political war as all can catalyze a question of early re-election and the President. To it there are many questions, including in respect of a violation of the law. It is possible to remember a situation of 2007 with early elections. It seems to me that Victor Yushchenko appeared the hostage of disintegration of orange camp, the hostage of own environment. The new coalitions won't be. There will be elections and they will be mutual, that is will concern also parliament and the President. Every day will be decisive. Anyway, it is a question or the end of 2008, or the beginning of 2009".

Alexander Medvedev(director of political programs of the Center of researches of political values of "AKSIA"): "There are two options of the coalition in existing parliament and both of them assume participation of the Ave. in it. In the coalition of PR, NUNS and Blok Yanukovych has Lytvyna chance to become the prime minister. And then we will observe a new imperious tandem: the president Yushchenko - the prime minister Yanukovych. It is obvious that in Yushchenko's such format will lose the electoral weight in more accelerated. In the coalition of PR, BYuT and KPU of Tymoshenko hardly will hand over a premier position, so Yanukovych should be content with a position with lower political status.

If these two options don't work, the mechanism of dissolution of Rada will be started. In that case there is more variability for a cabal. Re-elections bear risks for Tymoshenko in the form of leaving of part of the electorate disappointed with cooperation of the leader of BYuT with the leader of regionals. It is possible to hope for high loyalty симпатиков Party of Regions even in case of the fact of joint legislative game with BYuT. But at PR to whom will delay voices.Possibly, we will see the five from ETs which will be headed by Bogatyryova. In my opinion, the probability of re-elections is high".

Alexey Garan(professor of political science, scientific principal of political analytics of NAUKMA): "The desirable result is that NU and BYuT return to the negotiating table. Moreover, I think that it is the most rational option for the President and "our Ukraine" if to close eyes to pride and offenses. Any other option becomes losing. The option of early elections is extremely difficult for "our Ukraine". The president actually has nobody to go on elections. The coalition option of "our Ukraine" and Party of Regions is possible, but it losing from the image point of view. The coalition between BYuT and PR too won't be. That wouldn't speak, but it is absolutely obvious. Other option - a bog, when there is no the coalition, and is only the situational majority. It seems to me that the last option was provided by the presidential secretariat. But the problem is that before formation of the new coalition in the status of the deputy there is Tymoshenko's government. The presidential party has not so many options".


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