September цугцванг

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The domestic politicum itself tired out itself in boondocks therefore each subsequent course for all main political players is either senseless, or harmful. Each of them is doomed, speaking chess language, on political цугцванг, but in the worst situation everything is there was Victor Yushchenko

Today politicians and experts meet that exits from the political crisis which has become aggravated after votes on the first parliamentary sessional week, can be three. In - the first, reformatting of the parliamentary majority. In - the second, early elections. And, in - the third, introduction of direct presidential board. Each of these scenarios except for the last assumes some options. We will consider each of them regarding reality of realization.

Reformatting of the coalition

It is already obvious that till September 13 the WELL-NANOSECOND fraction won't return to the democratic coalition. In this regard next plenary week there is a question of formation of the new parliamentary majority. In this structure of parliament probably only three options of the coalition.

Demkoalition (updated).As they say, democrats unite before execution. Threat of early parliamentary elections as a result of which today's participants of a demkoalition will worsen the result can become such reference point. Naturally, the reconstruction of a demkoalition is possible only on the basis of the new coalition contract and attraction in its structure, besides "WELL - NANOSECOND" and BYuT, Blok of Litvin. In coalition the agreement has to be accurately specified who will be candidate for president from the coalition, and who the head of the government. Without these two conditions restoration of the democratic majority is impossible. And judging by that heat and rhetoric of the parties - it is unreal.

The coalition of PR and "WELL - NANOSECOND".The idea of the "wide" coalition on the basis of pro-presidential and main oppositional force soared from the first day of creation of the coalition present. However for a variety of reasons it wasn't realized.The latest events, namely Victor Yanukovych's statements across Georgia, showed Raisa Bogatyreva's exception of Party of Regions and vote of an anti-presidential package of laws that until recently the most real outcome of political opposition, becomes all less probable. In - the first, Yanukovych in such union not to be satisfied with a position of the speaker, and will apply for a post of the prime minister, on what Yushchenko hardly will go, remembering the with Yanukovych relationship of last year. In - the second, there is slightly less than a half of WELL-NANOSECOND fraction, first of all, national self-defense and Rukh won't be a part of such majority, so, again for receiving 226 voices it is necessary to attract Blok Litvin. Therefore prerequisites for the similar coalition aren't present today, and knowing a peregovorosposobnost "WELL - the NANOSECOND" this process won't keep within and 60 days, instead of taken away 30-ти. Besides, by this time it will be necessary to cancel PR adopted earlier with participation laws.

PR and BYuT coalition.Such option is the most real of the first scenario of succession of events. In - the first, these political forces have the general vision of the constitutional changes. In - the second, both PR and at BYuT have the general desire to exclude from Victor Yushchenko's game and to create in fact binary (if not two-party) political system. And, in - the third as in the bargaining for Tymoshenko's positions I am ready to give a post of the speaker to Yanukovych, and this though the same that offers also Yushchenko, but all - is more. After all, the proposal of the president Yanukovych on the speaker looks as soon as the second official position, and at Tymoshenko as the first as it has no presidential resource to offer a place of the Prime minister. And, at last, in - the fourth, the constitutional reform, and binary system can guarantee peaceful co-existence in Yanukovych's future - the president and Tmoshenko - the prime minister or on the contrary. The only barriers on a way of formation of such alliance is the mutual distrust and fear to lose ratings (especially for BYuT), developed thanks to long-term uncompromising struggle of these political forces. And BYuT and Party of Regions is favorable a tactical tactical alliance but if they consider as the worst to go on elections, it can quite find and temporary legal registration.

Early elections

Early parliamentary elections.The most probable according to the second scenario a way out.If parliamentary forces don't manage to issue any coalition, and the Party of Regions and BYuT will advance laws, first of all, constitutional and on increase of an election threshold further, the President will be compelled to announce early elections not to lose the remains of political influence. Especially as it will be able to use it just now, after all, according to the Constitution it is impossible to dismiss the Verkhovna Rada in the last half a year of presidential powers, and to pull till spring also it doesn't make sense as will pass two necessary sessions for modification of the Basic Law.

Early parliamentary and presidential election.Despite statements of BYuT and Party of Regions for expediency of carrying out early elections in parliament, only together with presidential, it will be improbable to realize this scenario. Though, acceptance laws which open opportunity to real procedure of impeachment, to realize it in practice, even having necessary 350 voices, owing to complexity of procedure it is impossible. The only thing that Victor Yushchenko's this or voluntary consent, or after modification of the Constitution PR and BYuT coalition can form the basis for their carrying out.

Direct presidential board

As well as the beginning of procedure of impeachment, this scenario is considered more as a political horror story for the opponent than the real guide to action. However some presidential advisers in sauce whether threats of national security from parliament in case of formation of the coalition of BYuT and PR, whether provoking of the real territorial conflict try to impose power option of a solution. In general this mechanism looks so: introduction of state of emergency in the conditions of the dismissed parliament and, as a result, the direct presidential board which is based not on the right of the law, and on the right of force. At the same time, three conditions are necessary for successful realization of the similar. In - the first, high level of legitimacy of the President, at least, more than 50% of support, and it now fluctuates around 5-7%. In - the second, existence of professional management, and they can't brag, beginning from regional administration and finishing the Secretariat of the President. And, in - the third, fighting capacity and influence on power structures, and they are demoralized and on them now there is no monopoly.And it any more without telling about real threat of the civil conflict and negative reaction of the international community in case of introduction attempt something similar. So, bravado of presidential "hawks" is a usual bluff.

As we see from the analysis, the most real scenarios of succession of events in the ratio 40:60 is formation of coalition ПРиБЮТ and early parliamentary elections. However the domestic politicum itself tired out itself in boondocks therefore each subsequent course for all main political players (Yushchenko, Yanukovych, Tymoshenko) is either senseless, or harmful. Again choosing from the smaller evils, each of them is doomed, speaking chess language, on political цугцванг, but in the worst situation everything is there was an incumbent president Victor Yushchenko on whom not only depends what of scenarios will be started but also which will incur the heaviest responsibility for his realization.


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