The power subject for the Ukrainian politicians always was one of darlings. Problems in branch suffice, and to solve them quickly it won't turn out - a chasm of opportunities for a self-praise. Last similar idea of the president: Baltiysko's emergency creation - the Black Sea power community that will be able just to promote realization of other dream - to a pipeline obverse Odessa - Fords.
The pipeline mentioned above differently than "notorious" to call difficult. One of the most ambitious energy projects of Ukraine who had to raise degree of power safety of the state and adds to it actions of the international appeal, in practice turned back a big headache. Construction of the oil pipeline was one of the most beloved projects of the former president. It was supposed that it becomes a basis of an alternative way of pumping of the Caspian oil to Western Europe and will promote strengthening both political, and economic positions of our country in the region.
Plans on paper looked more than perspective, but in practice quickly removed to the category of those good intentions by which the road to a hell is paved. The aspiration which is periodically arising at the Ukrainian authorities to go "some other way" (in most cases - the main thing that not "through Russia"), Leonid Danilovich brought. For some (with 1996 on 2002) years of construction and about 550 million hryvnias Ukraine received new "pipe" 675 kilometers long and oil with a design capacity of 14,5 million tons in a year. But business was limited to run of the bought portion of technological oil. Whatever was perspective the Odessa oil pipeline - the Fords, wishing to them to use wasn't.
After several years of idle time and loud charges of change to interests of the Homeland, pipe "turned back". After acceptance in 2004 of the decision on a reverse, Ukraine was signed for pumping of the Russian oil to Odessa for its further loading on tankers.In spite of the fact that initially the arrangement was on 9 million tons per year, it was succeeded to reach similar volumes, to put it mildly, not at the same moment. So, for example, for the first half of the year 2006 less than two million tons of oil managed to pass through the oil pipeline. At the end of 2006 the additional three-year agreement in which notorious 9 million tons were approved already "iron" was signed with Russians. And it turned out: in 2007 the limit managed even to be exceeded. And until the end of December of the current year it is supposed to pump over 7,2 million tons. And that is indicative, 1,6 million tons fall to the share of actually Russian product only. Other oil - Kazakh, following transit across the territory of the Russian Federation. Here also it turns out that the Ukrainian pipe found - "the" client. Only not absolutely as there was a wish.
Statements for that it would be quite good to use "Odessa - Fords" as it was initially designed, pursue the pipeline from the start of a reverse. And all mighty of this world, since 2004, assures: there would be a political will … However, in a similar case of one political will it isn't enough: clients whom at construction of the oil pipeline forgot are necessary to find. To look for them it is difficult: on the one hand, to be got involved in the competition to Russia where it is more dangerous, than it seemed at first, with another - those 224,1 million dollars which were already received for oil pumping in the reversny direction - too a pleasant bonus.
"Eagle" or "reshka"?
Return to an obverse "Odessa - Fords" permanently stays among fixed ideas of the present president. Attempt to persuade Kazakhs or Azerbaijanians to give oil, and Europeans to buy it were undertaken repeatedly. And the project "complete to Plock" (from where oil "will go" to Gdansk) is registered among the main the okoloenergeticheskikh of projects of Ukraine.
By May, 2008 the impression started developing that the presidential patience burst. On the sixth of May Victor Yushchenko declared that the obverse has to be carried out until the end of 2008. In April his adviser for international issues of energy security Bogdan Sokolovsky assured that the bases for revision of the direction of oil movement suffice - there are clients. It is supposed that the Caspian oil "will go" to Slovakia to oil refineries of the Czech company Ceska rafinerska a.s.As transaction scales - about 8 million tons - are comparable to a present "okolorossiysky" situation, and of an obverse dream for a long time, judging by reaction in the highest echelons of the power power, the project consider with enthusiasm. In any case, the head of "Naftogaz" Oleg Dubina already declared that are going to prepare the oil pipeline technically for "reset", and the president inspired with prospects (according to the royal decree "all questions" have to be solved to the Power summit planned for May 22-23) once again I remembered "the Polish direction" within Baltiysko's creation - the Black Sea power community. The European Commission, in turn, assured that is ready "to consider the offer", and it for some time allowed the Ukrainian optimism to blossom magnificent color.
It is difficult to define degree of validity of "blossoming". On the one hand, the idea of an obverse of the oil pipeline has the right for existence, especially if under it there are contracts. On the other hand - still it is necessary to agree with Kazakhs whom "the Russian scheme" still arranged transportations. Not it is simple and with "to hold on everything to Poland" - since 2007 interests of the European Union removed towards future Pan-European oil pipeline which has to connect Romania to Italy and swing all same Kazakh or Azerbaijani oil to Europe. And though it is considered that thus oil will be delivered to mainly Southern and the Central Europe, and "Odessa - Fords - Gdansk" would be more convenient for the North and the East, is far not the fact that Europeans will rely on Ukraine. Thus entirely you shouldn't count on a reverse too - Russians prepare for introduction in operation "болгарско - Greek" a branch which will allow them to fill in tankers already in the Mediterranean Sea. The Odessa option to similar prospects - the competitor weak.
Thus, it turns out, whether that a reverse, whether the obverse - destiny of the Odessa — Fords oil pipeline depends only on, whether it will be possible to find "under it" clients. In an opposite case, Ukraine risks to lose the same everything which construction "provided it Baku - Tbilisi - Ceyhan", from - for what the most part of the Caspian oil safely "leaves" through Turkey. But the Ukrainian power continues to trust in bright future of "the geographical center of Europe". What is is laudable, only seldom is confirmed by practice.
We want as it is better …
By and large, the pressing power problems connected, for example, with the same supply of the Russian natural gas or an okolobankrotny condition of "Naftogaz" suffice to Ukraine also. But for these difficulties weak degree of a reshayemost in a key "is characteristic as it would be desirable". It would be desirable gas cheaper, but it rises in price every year. "Rosukrenergo" on - former as large as life would be desirable to get rid of intermediaries, but. It would be desirable that everything was remarkable, but …
Thereof there is an impression that vokrugenergetichesky daydreaming for fathers and mothers of the Ukrainian nation is if not a hobby, following to any mysterious rules of a good form. And. that has to be offensive - plans as a whole quite good, only realization limps, and degree of relevance of an embodiment is estimated at life not always sensibly. Except darling the president "Odessa - Fords - Gdansk" is still optimistic dreams of successful development of the Black Sea and Azov shelves and creation of any gas pipeline alternative to the Russian options.
With the hidden treasures of the Black Sea long time "everything was clear". In 2006 the Swiss company with the American roots of Vanco International Limited won open competition on the right of the conclusion with the Ukrainian government of the agreement on production section - the oil and gas resources which are allegedly "living" on the Prikerchensky oil-and-gas site of 12,96 thousand square kilometers. It agrees concluded on thirty years forward arrangements Ukraine has to receive investments on 15 billion dollars and 200 million tons of that will find. Practically at once after contract signing many Ukrainian experts sighed with regret: and suddenly sold too cheap - but business was made. As it appeared - till April, 2008.
On the eleventh of April the current year Yulia Timoshenko decided to deal with the investor densely. "Ukraine gave all this wealth to one company, thus, when through Gosfinmonitoring understood, it is registered on 4 students from 20 to 22 years in an offshore", - the prime minister told to People's Deputies, having complained that such shelf needs to be distributed to investors on square centimeters.
A certain advantage of plans of the prime minister is: to redistribute a shelf between several companies to avoid monopolization - that can be more noble.Especially as ecological department paid close attention to the contract with Vanco in 2007 when it became clear that the site given to development borders on the military range. However, the environmental protection Ministry already played the game: On April 25 the license for investigation and development of the Prikerchensky site of the Black Sea shelf, the given-out americana - to Swisses, was withdrawn. Since May 8 the Ukrainian ministry and American "scouts" communicate regarding "vessels or the world". While incline to option "world" but that will be farther - will show time.
About "to resell thought of the Ukrainian government more expensively" it is justified: anything surprising in aspiration more successfully to agree about destiny over ten billions cubic meter of hydrocarbons isn't present. But only when it is precisely known that there will be a source of more attractive conditions. For now the initiative the prime minister - the minister reminds rough activity out of the blue more. Equal, but имиджево the interesting - after all it is a question almost of power independence of Ukraine.
From Yulia Timoshenko it is possible to count as other glorified example of activization of power design the White Stream gas pipeline advertized in the press. The ambitious project developed several years ago, looks extremely attractively: to connect Central Asia with Europe through a bottom of the Black Sea and Ukraine - it is courageous and beautiful. But it is expensive, difficult реализуемо (though it is simpler, than "same, but with nacreous buttons" - not through the Crimea, and through Romania), and the most important - is the extremely unattractive for many interested parties, first of all - for Russia.
Sharp reaction of Moscow from which giving Yulia Vladimirovna right there wrote down in the adventurer and a prozhekterka, it is possible to understand: "Nabukko" who is already making a detour of the territory of the Russian Federation, too doesn't please Russians. A little the alternative option "that without Ukraine" smoothes a situation: the most perspective among them - Nord Stream. But also White Stream would be good, if not …
As well as in a case with the oil pipeline "Odessa — Fords", "White Stream" is pleasing to the eye on paper, but it would be difficult "to put" it into practice. Turkmens insist that their gas is completely contracted by Russia, Azerbaijanians shrug shoulders, but don't exclude that will think, and again to build without "iron" arrangements - business unreliable.Certainly, always it is possible to count upon the Iranian gas (as in a case with oil pipeline repeatedly mentioned above - on the Iraq oil), only some prospects even from far away look not too perspective. However, Ukrainians hardly will undertake "A white stream". But it always can find alternative. The main thing, that more justified because consecutive actions of the power in style "wanted as it is better, and it turned out, as always" don't please with this sequence. And scepticism of potential partners too often relies on the general Ukrainian unreliability. To build new to what at us constantly aspire, is, by itself, not to break. Only it is necessary to build after all too intelligently. And differently too many quite good projects risk to remain in paper with proud labels "Project".