Banks speculate on a dollar rate increase

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Candidate of Economic Sciences Elena Tsyplitskaya and the associate professor of the economic theory and NGGU ekometriya of Pyotr Mogila Victoria Palekhova commented on a situation which developed in the currency market of Ukraine.

As report "Business - news of Nikolaev", world financial crisis already long time is almost main subject for conversations. In September of this year the U.S. Government officially declared transfer of the mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac under state management. This information positively affected an US dollar exchange rate in the international market, however sharp jump of a dollar rate for the majority of the population of Ukraine became, to put it mildly, a big surprise.

If the official rate of US dollar established by NBU, in August made 4,8457 UAH/1 dale. The USA, just yesterday, on October 7, the hryvnia exchange rate in the interbank market came to level of 5,55-5,6 hryvnias for dollar from 5,31 hryvnias for dollar a day earlier. Also yesterday Council of National bank reconsidered an expected indicator of a hryvnia exchange rate for 2008 from 4,85 hryvnias for dollar a plus-minus of 4% to 4,95 hryvnias for dollar a plus-minus of 8%.

Current situation we asked to comment on Candidate of Economic Sciences Tsyplitskaya Elena Aleksandrovna and the associate professor of the economic theory and NGGU ekometriya of Pyotr Mogila Palekhovu Victoria Antonovna.

E.Tsyplitskaya: "There can be some reasons:

- the first, and this most popular belief, - speculative increase of demand. The dollar rate increase that on it to earn a certain profit is favorable to some banks. In the summer when the dollar rate was 4,6 UAH, banks bought up it in rather large number that caused surprise in economists. And today speculative increase of a course went - there is an opportunity to earn profit enough, that is with a certain share of confidence it is possible to tell that the situation developed an artificial way.

- the second reason can be connected with a situation in a banking system of Ukraine and its economy. Today some banks have the difficult situation connected with a non-return of the credits by the population therefore some of banks can stop the activity.Against world crisis by the strongest currency the dollar in comparison with euro looks, the hryvnia endures devaluation process. Banks now look for more - less stable currency to diversify the currency portfolio. Probably, it increased demand for dollar.

The National Bank carries out now interventions is everything that it can make. It can't forbid any speculative operations because to prove the speculation fact in the currency market quite difficult. NBU can use the gold and exchange stock to reduce a course or to hold it within a currency corridor. It is known that the today's policy of National Bank just and consisted what to release dollar in free swimming.

This situation already brings a loss, first of all to the population - import goods (energy resources, cars) will rise in price.

If it is speculative increase of demand, it is possible to expect that by the end of the year the dollar rate will decrease. We observed a similar situation with euro, the same will be possible and with dollar when certain circles to get profit on course increase".

V. Palekhova: "Now the dollar becomes stronger - it won those positions which lost for the previous one and a half years in the world market. Probably, jump of a course is connected with population expectations that not the best times will begin soon: possible re-elections of parliament, financial world crisis, economic crisis, and it already on itself was felt by Russia, inhabitants of Ukraine understood that it will concern also them.

Today people remembered that in former times the dollar was any guarantee therefore there was such agiotage.
The price raises for two reasons: either demand increases, or the offer decreases.

In Ukraine we can observe simultaneous action of two of these factors: all rushed to buy up dollar, and nobody wants it to sell.

Certainly, such situation will aggravate recession in economy, however it is worth recognizing that the similar phenomenon is natural to market economy - passed exactly 10 years after world financial crisis.

Complexity of a situation consists that in Ukraine economic processes don't coincide with universal tendencies and don't fit into the standard norms".


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