* B Japanese word "crisis"
it is designated by two hieroglyphs,
one of which bears danger value,
and the second - "opportunity".
Here the second month rare day does without news of reduction in production, a stop of the enterprises, transfer of workers to incomplete week, and even personnel reduction. From the financial sphere crisis surely gets over in real economy. According to official statistics, in Ukraine the third month in a row goes falling of industrial outputs, and in October it put already 19,8%. Recession already concerned 10 of 12 primary branches of national economy.
The first half of the next year becomes the heaviest, and crisis will cause the greatest loss to small and medium business. Participants of a round table came to such conclusion "Business in the conditions of crisis" which took place in Nikolaev торгово - industrial chamber. Representatives of banks, the enterprises, the small business, independent experts exchanged the assessments of the situation and discussed opportunities for mitigation of blow of crisis at local level.
Nikolaev and the Nikolaev business need to use most fully remained time and those opportunities for preservation of potential of economy which are left by a shaft of being rolled crisis, the president of RTPP of the Nikolaev area Sergey Vlasenko is sure.
- Today newspapers and the Internet are overflowed with various estimates of the events in economy. In your opinion for that the Nikolaev businessmen and ordinary citizens should wait?
- First of all, it is necessary to realize that the real crisis at us on a threshold. On - to the present hard times wait for us in February - April. Return to today's level, by optimistic estimates - not earlier than 2010. And to build the plans, the expenses it is necessary according to it.
- Today quite often words that if we endured chaos of the middle 90-sound x, and today's crisis to us isn't terrible.
- Then crisis in the basic concerned the former Soviet Union. Thus arising business, the traditional enterprises and private citizens with might and main used enormous stocks of material resources remained from the Soviet Union, the infrastructure, etc.remained in a quite good state
The events can be described today such comparison: imagine that for any reasons, Gulf Stream suddenly cooled down. All those countries which thanks to this powerful current had soft and warm winter, will feel a cold snap in the fall, but the real disaster will burst only in the winter. And here. The huge, global current of financial streams providing to Ukraine continuous increase of degree of its economy, without excessive efforts of the power and business, cooled down.
Such events can't be compensated for half a year. Unfortunately, recession in real sector of economy is inevitable. To even bigger regret, the Ukrainian economy is too weak and inefficient today to leave from - under blow among the first. Recovery from the crisis will begin, most likely, not earlier than the second half of the year 2009.
And, by estimates of pessimists, the Ukrainian crisis can be tightened on two - three years.
- And all so, how strongly the crisis which has been given rise in the far USA, can strike on the Nikolaev region?
- Yes, hardly many nikolayevets bought notorious derivatives of Fannie Mae (Federal national mortgage association - FNMA) or made the investments in actions of such American investment banks, as Lehman Brothers.
But come on a chain to us bank crisis struck on the companies and the enterprises which realized the projects based on credit resources.
As of the beginning of November (time when interview registered - an editor's note) the greatest problems were at three branches: financial sector, real estate and metallurgy. But it only those who lost most of all. Trade is already alarmed by reduction of a consumer demand, up to an exit in unprofitable work of a number of retail networks. Most likely, delay of development of business, reduction in production will proceed, and it is personnel reduction. From here again reduction of a consumer demand which pulls for itself an investment demand follows.
Plus to it already specifics of Nikolayevshchina: inevitable dependence of the transit region on the volume of export streams. Very disturbing forecasts on agrarian sector and:not too successful year in the financial plan, plus to it a rise in price of credit resources call into question into the future of many small and medium-sized agricultural enterprises.
To a lesser extent during crisis branches which make the consumer goods necessary for everyday life will suffer. Food, casual clothes, footwear - people use it constantly. But here new problem: from - for attempts of the state to strengthen fiscal pressure business again will direct in a shadow. With losses following from here for the budget and social funds.
- Touching possible anti-recessionary measures, besides carrying out changes in financial sector, it is often offered to develop domestic market. As far as it is possible?
- Certainly, today it is especially important to use possibilities of domestic market. Today there are three directions in which the state can support business. And it isn't simple to compensate losses from inefficient management, and to strengthen competitiveness both our enterprises, and the state.
The first: government purchases. Even after inevitable cut in expenditure of budget funds, the market of government purchases remains to one of the most powerful - 150-180 billion UAH. Business belongs already today to this market, earlier interesting the few much more attentively. It is enough to set accurate rules, and businessmen, during the competition, will make for increase of transparency and efficiency of distribution of budgetary funds.
The second: state order for implementation of large infrastructure projects: construction of roads, bridges, airports …
- Has to notice that at me always caused scepticism of the offer to fight with unemployment by construction of autobahns. Esteemed today many for a sample Roosevelt for this purpose entered labor camp. Someone in Ukraine intends to send metallurgists or programmers to build bridges? And then, if on it the state didn't have enough money in safe (as we found out now) years, from where they will undertake at the time of crisis?
- Metallurgists will get a job as all these projects will require metal. And it is necessary to realize them within it is state - private partnership. The matter is that so-called real money in the world didn't become less. Even in Ukraine - withdrew from banks for a month of 17 billions. And where to put them, in dollars? Besides, possibilities of attraction of investment resources under carrying out EURO-2012 far aren't completely used.
At last, the third, and, probably, the most important direction is zhilishchno - municipal services. Crisis, it not only chance to carry out reforms in this extremely painful sphere. Neither the state, nor local authorities can't keep indefinitely in a present condition of half-decay of housing and communal services of the country. Need to create the normal market relations in this sphere long ago are clear to all. On the other hand, today resources of this market have to are especially attractive to business. If the housing and communal services market in Russia were estimated in 2006 at 600 billion rubles, Ukrainian, by conservative estimates can make about 50-70 billion UAH. Only the population last year paid about 18 billion UAH for utilities. Thus, certainly, the state has to provide due level of the competition, stimulate introduction of energy saving technologies, etc.
- Reforming of the housing and communal services markets and in many respects, the market of government purchases, is impossible without change in activity of local government, both deputies, and officials of city and regional level. Those which alternate today participation in political quarrels of the party bosses to the most direct lobbyism of the "correct" structures.
- And still at the level of local government there are more than chances to achieve association of various forces, than at the level of the state. It, certainly, it isn't enough to stop untwisting of a spiral of crisis in Ukraine as a whole. Nona places, in particular, in Nikolaev, it is possible to make a lot of things for reduction of losses in the social and economic sphere.
- At the initiative of the mayor of Nikolaev the group for development of the city anti-recessionary program is already created.
- It is really necessary. The main thing that the similar document didn't turn into the next "fashionable" declaration, or we didn't become witnesses of repetition of "parade" of anti-recessionary projects from all political groups, the only which real purpose - self-advertisement.
- Whether you consider, what the Ukrainian economy already has immunity to political crises, after all they take place with an enviable regularity?
- The person can live long time in stress conditions, but in the period of a flu epidemic it almost for 100% guarantees it a long and serious illness. That fact that at us continues political crisis, very much aggravates and without that negative processes in economy. Today it would be very reasonable to enter for a while the moratorium on all subjects which split society:questions of language, NATO, history, etc.
- We speak about crisis of the whole branches, but in too time there are a lot of examples of how large objects, the enterprises and banks are bought up by more successful businessmen. Means, crisis is dangerous not to all, someone has a chance?
- Today and tomorrow have to carry out very favorable purchases, merges and absorption that business - structures which on the eve of crisis concentrated considerable free resources. Moreover, it is sure that on completion of crisis it will become clear that any world centers of business life will change the registration, and others will sharply amplify or will weaken. Similar processes will take place and already take place and in the Ukrainian economy.
In too time in medium-term prospect stronger positions at those enterprises who has strong positions in domestic market and, in too time, successful experience in foreign markets, business - processes and production adapted the for the international standards. By the way, those who will manage to stand in these a year and a half will receive the market which has been cleared away from many today's competitors.
You know, in Japanese, it appears, the word "crisis" is designated by two hieroglyphs one of which is translated as "danger", and another, among other, "opportunity" and "chance" matters.
Today the Nikolaev Chamber of Commerce and Industry, in cooperation with colleagues from others торгово - industrial chambers, prepares a number of offers and projects which are urged to help the enterprises and businessmen of the Nikolaev area and other regions not only to have heavy time of crisis, but to use its opportunities for strengthening of the positions.
Andrey Popovwrote down