The Ukrainian market of real estate didn't stand aside from world financial crisis, as a result - demand for housing was noticeably reduced. Certainly, people on - former aspire to improving the living conditions, but inflation compelled them to postpone the solution of this question for the uncertain future.
"Reduction of operations on sale of housing happened in all cities of area. If in the winter in Nikolaev was on sale to 350 apartments a month, in September - October this indicator fell to 100, - informed readers of the Nikolaev real estate agency "Milky Way" (it published information sounded at meeting of experts in real estate in Nikolaevsk office of Ukrsibbank). - There was no traditional autumn revival of the market also.
These data were confirmed by the chief engineer of NMBTI O. Kvasha. He reported that the number wishing to receive an extract from the register of the property rights was reduced three times" this fall.
Processes and tendencies
As you can see, there is an occasion to talk about the processes happening in the market of real estate. What tendencies took place in recent years that occurs today - about it we talk to Irina Rudenko, the managing director of the Universal exchange "Nominal", 15 years working at this market. At the same time Irina is the vice-chairman of Association of experts in real estate. Also we speak first of all about Nikolaev.
For the last 8-10 years of housing price in the city grew on the average by 10 times. However, this process as you understand, concerned all country. How experts explain such prompt growth? In the Soviet Union the housing market practically was absent: there were options of an exchange of apartments, but not sale. Absence of the market meant lack of the price. Therefore after collapse of the USSR the housing was "underestimated".
Gradually Ukraine recovered after an economic crisis. Income of citizens grew, welfare improved, there was a need for improvement of living conditions. However by then housing construction practically stopped.The unfinished constructions which have stiffened without movement are still fresh in memory of nikolayevets. Chronic lack of means of the State and local budgets, and also at the majority of construction companies didn't give the chance to be developed to full construction. At the beginning of the new millennium the situation developed classical: the insufficient offer at a growing demand. Thus, "deficiency of goods" objectively provoked rise in prices.
Investors came to the same time for the market of real estate standing without movement - "the speculative capital", including foreign. However construction of new housing of the increased comfort apartments of the ordinary citizen and "утряски" the prices in the market of real estate didn't solve a problem of providing.
Market of an exchange
- If to analyze problems of the market of secondary housing, I can tell: this market didn't move for a long time so intensively and so chaotically, - Irina Rudenko speaks. - Always on it there were any adequate principles giving in to logic. The housing usually rose in price in the fall, after summer (people for a summer season earned money) or before New year. Being outlined elections, deterioration of a political and economic situation in the country also were reflected in market "stir". That is, there was a system, an order, reaction of the market of real estate to society life. Years we don't observe two such orders …
In general - that in Nikolaev can be defined the market of secondary real estate rather as "the exchange market". Operations of purchase and sale are connected generally with changes in vital conditions of citizens: someone married, someone divorced, someone needs a large sum of money and is compelled to sell the apartment. Money "wanders" as though from a pocket in a pocket from buyers to sellers. Badly that practically there are at us no wealthy people who, being engaged in business, the housing or the commercial areas could buy initially - that is, to make solid initial monetary "contributions" to the market that the real estate exchange through purchase and sale was made then.
To predict that will be with the prices as the market will "move" - today it is impossible, Irina considers. By all calculations, the prices had to fall long ago, but they didn't fall. One of the reasons - at nikolayevets appeared opportunity to take the credits in banks on housing purchase. Abundance of credit offers, mortgage loans, increase in the income of citizens and reasonable percent which could be paid without special losses for a family, promoted increase in demand for housing.
And today the real estate market in many respects depends on bank policy, however, depended always - as soon as crediting became an integral part of life of our citizens. However everything is more difficult to take the credit in the last half a year: annual interest rates of payments increased, there were more rigid conditions of issuance of credit. The matter is that financial institutions were reoriented on more favorable consumer crediting which gives high profits in much shorter terms.
Today, in the conditions of the come crisis, the credits give out to nikolayevets only two banks. Thus the interest rate in hryvnia reaches 25%. It is a high rate, and the hope for its decrease while isn't present. As soon as the situation will change and banks will start crediting or will lower percent, a certain movement and in the real estate market will begin at once.
Our "expensive" Nikolaev
It appears, in scales of Ukraine Nikolaev is in number of the cities with high housing prices (certainly, we don't compare the cost of our housing with capital, and we speak about adequacy of the Nikolaev prices to infrastructure of the semi-million city, consumer ability of the population, etc.). These prices, as well as in other cities, develop by regional rules, however local sellers of housing yet absolutely realized that for activization of the housing market it is necessary to go on certain compromises.
- The prices run ahead of development of city infrastructure, - Irina Rudenko considers, - though in it there is no logic as we have no large, rich enterprises, a salary at the population the small. There has to be a compliance between supply and demand. In recent years in Nikolaev in the market of real estate there was a tendency to forcing of the prices that, naturally, worsened the general situation. Sellers take a waiting attitude: offers becomes less - demand, respectively, increases. The adequate prices are exposed generally by those who needs to sell real estate quickly. Sometimes sale agencies should "sweat" decently to prove to the seller unreasonableness of the transcendental sum exposed by it.
At the beginning of 2008 in the secondary market of Nikolaev quite high price for square meter of living space was fixed. For example, in "five-storey apartment blocks" it reached $1-1,2 thousand. And there was this price in 2007 and kept, without decreasing almost. At the same time the cost of 1 sq.m of housing in houses new under construction reached $1,5 thousand
By the way, about the prices of new buildings:during the pre-crisis period the part of experts predicted some increase of the cost of 1 sq.m connected with growth of expenses for construction, a rise in price of building materials, increase of a salary of builders, etc. Other part considered that in the conditions of growth of volumes of construction of housing builders will be compelled to go for some reduction of price, even at the expense of the profits.
However the "square" price always remains attached to the standard cost of construction of 1 square meter: this price increased from year to year in the Nikolaev area and to 2008 - му made 3300 UAH, or nearly $700. "Square" in the new apartment less than this price can't simply be.
Hope for decrease
With reference to the same Investor newspaper we will provide some forecasts on a situation of this year: the Nikolaev appraisers claim that there was some reduction of prices of secondary housing in the fall, but it concerns only 3-and 4-room apartments and cottages. In some cases decrease reaches 10%. With firmness the prices of one-room apartments, and, according to the forecast keep, it is hardly worth expecting them falling. The cost of two-room apartments fluctuates depending on districts of the city. According to realtors, proceeding from a situation - price for apartments can fall and to 10 thousand dollars. But it will be more likely not the rule, and an exception.
If to analyse activity of sales of apartments in Nikolaev, worst of all 3-room apartments are on sale. Slightly better - 2-room. But the most demanded there are apartments one-room - they in the market aren't late".
As for "illiquid asset" in the secondary market, it became a little demanded. People any more don't wish to pay big money for old housing on the top floors of five-storey buildings, in "remote" districts of the city. Such apartments, as a rule, buy in urgent cases.
Therefore if there will be a housing depreciation, there will be it first of all on the city periphery, in "zhilkopovskikh" houses and even "five-storey apartment blocks". In the central part of the city, in elite regions of the price usually hold on like grim death.
To reduction of number of operations on housing sale - participants of discussion "at a round table" in Ukrsibbank consider - gave also leaving from the market of real estate of persons who acquired housing for the purpose of its further resale. This profitable activity gave the chance to earn well. Today "speculators" try to compensate the expenses due to housing rent.