Results of snap elections of Chernovetsky not only strengthen political health of his Nikolaev colleague, but also force to overestimate chances of competitors of Vladimir Chaika.
About consequences of results of early elections of the mayor of Kiev within national political deals it is written already enough. The fatigue and disappointment of the voter, final victory of a "stupid" sale-purchase of voices over propaganda by promotion - here some of symptoms of new electoral reality in which simple Ukrainians should live and to work to our "difficult" compatriots. From elections as "sales" to voters of the best candidate, there is a transition to purchase of "voices" at retail.
Tea project: new statement of the familiar play
Among other, the Kiev elections force on - new to belong to the future of mayors - the singles who have ascended to the chair in 2006 by means of nominal blocks. Until recently it was considered to be them doomed to sacrifice to powerful party cars. Now started talking about what stakes on mayor blocks the new gray cardinal from Zakarpatye. At a today's deal the zabzalyukovsky bill of Vladimir Chaika's resignation becomes the indulgence to the "singing" mayor. Such here "suspended" mayor who actively isn't loved by byutovets and it is passive - regionals, ideally keeps within new schemes of Balogi. The arrangement of capital stars is in harmony and with a local disposition: the conflict to "Sadykov's group" in the opinion of the Chief Secretary one more advantage, along with moderated (here search is inadmissible! ) mutual understanding with Alexey Garkusha who is also representing a "presidential" vertical. Another thing is that in lack of reliable support in the City Council, Cabinet of Ministers and parliament, the mayor is ineffective, and, therefore, - малополезен for the city. But it already problems of citizens, isn't it?
But after a long break to Vladimir Dmitriyevich at last - that was succeeded to find again a support in Kiev, so necessary for the true leader of a city bulk. Chances of our mayor to serve the sentence completely considerably increased.The developed balance of forces as polite people reigning in the capital call chaos and general fight of all with everyone, does impossible to carry out resignation of the Nikolaev mayor as through the decision of the Verkhovna Rada, and consecutive actions of law enforcement agencies.
Certainly, in case of the next peretryakhivaniye of capital unions and cartels, the Nikolaev question can appear again on the agenda. But till winter - that the head in Nikolaev remains former. However, to the next elections of the mayor also remained very little: two and a half years, are a high time to lay the foundation for a pyramid of a victory.
If the person is bitten by the vampire, he becomes a vampire. But rams bite more often...
For practicians elections in Kiev - the skilled range on which the receptions guaranteeing the necessary result were brought to full standard. As it was already noted, Kiev not Chernovetsky with Balogoy won against Tymoshenko with Klichk. In Kiev the network marketing supported with an administrative resource, won against the populism working within "classical" advertizing. It is possible to be indignant long with that the one who bought - literally - more became a decisive factor. It is possible to refer to historical experience: vote for vowels of City Council if to trust certificates of historians, also was often reduced to frank purchase of voices of those voters that is poorer. It is possible to count that inhabitants of Kiev didn't believe democrats because they понабирали in the lists of the same large builders which won to itself ill fame at citizens.
But there is a number of conclusions which are quite applicable to future elections in Nikolaev when they wouldn't take place - in 2009 or 2011.
Direct work with the voter will move value of advertizing on the bigbordakh, in mass media and distribution of printing propaganda. Thus the candidate can not strain himself the personal recitation of slogans and promises. Not incidentally in Kiev even Lady Yu didn't shun to agitate for the protege in the yards and residential districts. On last elections in Nikolaev meetings "in the yards and quarters" were "counter" of team of Sergey Isakov. In the near future it becomes obligatory for any candidate, intending to reach a victory.
Development and the report to the voter of responsible programs, a package of measures according to the solution of the vital problems of the city becomes a senseless waste of time, forces and money. Even on that, frankly populist level which we observed in 2006 - m.
Crucial importance gets existence of effective team, is more exact - the branched organization relying on local activists. Such organizations aren't created in a month and even for half a year. Certainly, Nikolaev 10 times less Kiev and on two orders promises smaller profit to the winner. But for a victory at us, at 50%-oh it is enough to appearance to bring on sites of 50-60 thousand voters.
By the way, the low voter turnout the essential reduces the price of a victory (see below) therefore there is economic an organization of a shaft of a compromising evidence on all and all. So experts of "sneer company" and not fastidious media without work nevertheless don't remain.
We will try to make rough estimation. In 2006 110 thousand voters voted for Vladimir Chaika at 61%-ache to an appearance, having collected thus 46% of votes. At decrease in an appearance and a couple of strong competitors (and they, most likely, will be) that with interest will suffice the winner 70 thousand voices. If in due time to distribute to 50 thousand people on 200 UAH (notes or notorious buckwheat), even at charges of a network of foremen, the victory can cost only 4 $000000. Thus other, more decent way: two years to organize people and to look for adherents, to solve their domestic and house problems, from a bulb at an entrance before gas station pushing out from - under windows, to make enemies and neurosises, - doesn't guarantee a victory in the society of small pragmatists. You remember, how in a joke: and what you made personally for me? In order that "to beat off grandmas" at a sufficient share of dexterity and cynicism it is enough "to develop on itself" at least one really large project. Today such in the city it is possible to count pieces four.
It is quite possible that according to such scheme on shoulders the city will have such a head which today in this role we and in a bad dream can't imagine. Even in the capital, with its high standard of living and praised intellectual level, patriots, idealists and wealthy people in total it appeared less, than those who "100 UAH for the bulletin" doesn't consider barter offensive for the advantage. In this light Nikolaev seems doomed to become an easy mark of any unscrupulous... pragmatics, in the presence of the solid account and good sales managers.
Bribability, as mechanism of democracy
Consoles a little that in Nikolaev while any of potential candidates doesn't possess rather long will and a thick purse already today to build a pyramid for an ascension in a chair of the mayor. And a year later - time can appear insufficiently. To collect one thousand, and even it is more, active, adequate, causing trust and loyal to the employer of activists - a task not from simple. Plus to it, remains a majority problem in city council that considerably raises expenses and destroys grace of the scheme introduction of new people with their ambitions, complexes and shortcomings.
However, at desire, in a celebration of general bribability of the voter as reactions to irresponsibility and a self-interest of their elects, it is possible to find a positive. They say that positive thinking - pledge of long and healthy life. We will practise?
First of all, "buying up" of voices at retail kills an administrative resource in its most rough form. "To push on the left" the bulletin without the knowledge of the chief where it is simpler, than to steal a turbine shovel through a checkpoint.
In - the second if the voter is in advance sure that any winner of mayor competitions will actively be engaged in the solution of commercial interests (own or sponsors), the "dirty" public relations lose meaning. If all real candidates buy votes, buckwheat and "sotochka" will stop being decisive argument. On the other hand - Nikolaev not Kiev to distribute here hundreds millions sense isn't present. So appearance of the multimillionaire who will crush all money, is improbable. Candidates will - bondage should look for any new means of involvement of voters, besides become boring бигбордов, distributions of rations and services "black technologists".
You look, voices just those nikolayevets who seek to understand become decisive: as as the potential mayor, and the main thing is going to do, whether he is capable to make it...