Automobile market: in fashion Russian VAZs and "Chinese", housing market: "gostinka" are cheaper than twenty thousand c.u., a good harvest for the next year...
We decided to take an interest at experts that waits for Ukrainians in 2009 in the most "sensitive" spheres for each family. That will be with housing, food, inflation, cars, a dollar rate. We intentionally avoided forecasts concerning the coalition and future design of the power, considering that in the closest year of game of politicians won't affect in any way life of "the little Ukrainian".
Words "domestic producer" and "domestic car" shouldn't be used in general...
Experts consider that next year the market will decrease half, the market share at different players of the automobile market will change. Predict that the share car sale D - a class (capacious, mainly sedans and versatile persons for the European middle class where four - five people can freely take place) and E - a class (so-so - and full-size cars for the highest class) will most of all decrease. But hardly car sales a premium - a class will fall, Valery Yaremchuk, the observer of the automobile market predicts. Who has money, will buy expensive cars.
The share of inexpensive cars of the lowest price segment will significantly increase, these are VAZs and the Chinese cars. Besides, that they have a favorable price, they do interesting credit offers. For example, if the buyer pays a cost half to the car, on the others campaign gives it the credit for two years under 5 annual interest rates. On new foreign cars lifted an excise moreover them will import on quotas therefore the prices of them will raise. People need to go by something, and cars grow old and break therefore on this background even the Russian VAZs will have demand.
In opinion, observers of the automobile market, the word "domestic producer" and "domestic car" it isn't necessary to use in general.Because to the domestic buyer it is indifferent where the car, at us or abroad gathers. Because even collected here, stand so as if them brought together in Europe. The domestic producer is, from the point of view of the consumer, the large business owner who dreams to earn not worse, than the foreign producer, offering thus not always the best goods.
Labor market: the unemployed will be from three to five million, in vanguard - metallurgists and chemists
During annual total a press - conferences the President Victor Yushchenko noted that for today in Ukraine about 670-700 thousand unemployed are registered, and according to the experts unemployment rate by the end of the next year can reach 9%.
This forecast is divided also by the minister of work and social policy Lyudmila Denisova. "It is expected that unemployment rate will grow from 6,2% in the first half of the year of the current year to 9% next year", - she noticed. According to forecasts of Ministry of Labor, in 2009 in an employment service will address from 2,9 to 3,2 million people. "The branches dependent on export will most of all suffer, is metallurgical and chemical. As construction stops, and this branch will suffer".
In the oppositional government under the chairmanship of Yanukovych predict that unemployment rate in Ukraine of 2009 can make even 15%. "The optimistic forecast of growth of unemployment is 8%, pessimistic - 15%", - the Minister of Economics of the oppositional government Irina Akimova reported.
Before prospect to appear with work, but without money there are workers of the budgetary sphere. "Unbalanced redistribution of the budgetary funds, the underestimated rate of inflation put in the state budget-2009, can lead to that in June in the budget money will simply end, and all state employees will sit without salary" - some experts claim in UNIAN comments. But in any case, already today it is obvious that at least one forecast didn't come true. The thought sounded that crisis will drive the Ukrainian guest workers home. But workers don't hurry to come back yet. For them it is better to have in Europe the 800-1000 euros, let and with the raised prices, than to get paid here peanuts.
The mortgage freezes, housing prices fall...
The UNIAN for two last months I traced a situation in the housing market.And specialists of associations of real estate honestly admitted that the number of agreements on purchase of apartments fell to 80 percent, the truth carefully thus noticed that prices for apartments fell only on 10, in a separate segment for 20 percent. But, we think that as the best illustration of a condition of the market of housing serves that fact that two weeks ago in the capital the one-room apartment for 25 thousand dollars was exposed.
At the time of material writing on one of sites of real estate agencies one-room "gostinka" in Troyeshchina for 110 thousand hryvnias was exposed. That is already by the end of December of the price on some segments of housing fell twice. Thus specialists of banks quite skeptically regard option of revival of a mortgage, saying that will be hardly real to restore former volumes of long-term dollar crediting on the security of housing. But among banking services there will be a hryvnia crediting for the consumer purposes therefore if the existing high percent doesn't frighten the buyer, it will be possible to buy the apartment, say, having taken from bank money for repair parental together with several (several tens? ) other consumer credits. However, and terms of their repayment will significantly differ from accepted for a mortgage.
According to forecasts of experts, the peak of falling of housing prices is necessary for summer of 2009.
What will be from manes it in 2009?
In the State budget the next year the course indicator appears: To 7,5 hryvnia for dollar. Experts not really increase it an indicator, they find it possible to keep a course within 8 hryvnias, under several conditions. If the policy of NBU is clear and transparent if anti-recessionary laws really protect domestic market if gas negotiations with Moscow are fruitfully held. At least Pyotr Poroshenko whom call one of probable candidates for a position of the chairman of NBU so claimed.
There are also external economic bases that the course to hryvnia became stronger in relation to dollar: in the world markets there are additional dollars, the government of the United States takes today many additional steps for refinancing of all debts, also refinances dollars all markets of currencies. And it, in turn, stimulates a rise in prices for raw materials including on metal, the economist Boris Kushniruk noticed.In this regard predict the possible growth of receipt of foreign currency on the Ukrainian market that will create the objective bases for strengthening to hryvnia and dollar falling. Here such optimistical forecasts... and for today, on December 31, official rate: To 7,7 hryvnia for dollar, in exchange offices cash dollar costs to eight hryvnias.
Agriculture: the crop promises to be kind
Between the terms "agrarian producer" and "baker" (either butcher, or seller of ready-made products) huge difference. At bakers, and producers of sausages, as well as at sellers of products everything will be good, their crisis won't concern. Until in a wallet will remain though any money, people will buy food, supporting financially and the one who made it at the plant and the one who sold this product in the shop.
And how there will be affairs at those who delivers raw materials for processing plants, at agrarian producers? We decided to take an interest at landowners what they see for themselves next year.
Those agricultural producers to whom we phoned, told that the crop in 2009 promises to be good. But at an existing complex of problems, peasants it not really pleases. Because already today the ton of grain costs 500 hryvnias, and since 2008 in "homeland granaries" there were twenty million tons of a last year's crop. These factors press on the market, and purchase price of grain in 2009 can be too low for landowners, the chairman of large rural cooperative Gennady Novikov predicts.
It is interesting that all landowners ask from the state not billion hryvnias of grants, and to provide construction of new elevators, terminals, in a word - gate through which agrarian producers, instead of the grain traders sitting almost in each parliamentary fraction, could sell a production surplus.
Also agrarian producers wished that all Ministry of Agriculture was closed and went to look for the markets for agrarian production.
Whether we will become happier in 2009?
During an economic crisis people don't become happier. But Ukrainians and without crisis - the most pessimistic nation in Europe. However, it seems to us that despite the tendency to complain at the slightest pretext, Ukrainians can be organized and are able to work. Also it was as though good if we simply solved for ourselves:no crisis, any political peripetias, any yushchenka, timoshenka, януковичи will spoil to us mood, New Year's, for all year. The power can disappoint, the employer can deprive of an award, but nobody is able to deprive of us opportunity to react to it as we will want, and to draw the correct conclusions from own mistakes. Therefore, we will wait that all forecasts for Ukraine will develop only according to optimistic scenarios, and no bad news will have essential influence, at least, on our own vital scenario. Because we well understand that life - already in itself a fine gift.