The dollar can go sharply down

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From now on the National Bank had to start counting an official rate of hryvnia in a binding to an average on Mezhbank. But, in spite of the fact that the interbank course reached 7,6 UAH/$, official while raised only to 6,88 UAH/$ and can cross a level in 7 UAH/$ only tomorrow. Quicker obligations to the IMF don't allow to raise a course to National Bank. However, bankers expect that as all banks "are chock-full hammered with currency", this week decrease in a dollar rate can already begin.

Discrepancy of an official rate for December 1 interbank for last Thursday in NBU explained need to follow the memorandum with the IMF which forbids to change an official rate in a day more than for 2%. Thus NBU can establish a course higher than 7 UAH/$ only not earlier than Tuesday.

Bankers note that further the course can chaotically move from - for a panic in the market which NBU tries to bring down. "If people run further on exchange offices and banks, trying to exchange hryvnias available on hands for dollars (for October cash out of banks grew by 12,7 billion UAH), will cut a bough on which sit, - the first deputy chairman of NBU Anatoly Shapovalov claims. - When they will stop at least for a week, at once will see a situation change". Factor of growth of a course in NBU call decrease in ratings of banks, from - for what nonresidents demand from them early repayment of the credits.

However bankers see also prerequisites for decrease in a dollar rate. "All banks are hammered chock-full with dollars which bought always when sold NBU, - the treasurer of one of foreign banks noted. - Now that was bought on 6,3-6,7 UAH/$, will sell on 7,4 UAH/$, and then and on 7 UAH/$". The treasurer of one of average banks emphasized that all last week in the market was daily offered for sale $500 million."The offer of dollar is out of National Bank therefore at many will hand over nerves, and we can go sharply down, without having noticed as we will pass a level in 6 UAH/$", - the deputy chairman of board of Shopping Mall Credit bank Maxim Gritsenko declared.


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