Increase of the price of the Central Asian gas can become accident for Ukraine and create new winter gas crisis for Europe.
According to "Gazprom" forecasts until the end of this year "Central European" gas price will reach over 500 dollars for one thousand cubic meter.
If these forecasts and a prdpolozheniye are carried out, it means that for Ukraine the price of one thousand cubic meter of gas will grow since new year more than twice - approximately to 400 dollars from 179 and a half.
All this designates two things, - the chief specialist concerning gas of the Oxford institute of power researches Johnathan Stern considers, - that since January 1 Ukraine expects gas price increase which it won't sustain, and that Europe risks again to appear in the winter in gas crisis if Ukraine and Russia don't conclude in time the gas agreement the next year.
Thus advance in Ukrainian - the Russian negotiations isn't present because in Ukraine the main players compete for the power, - the expert notes.
"We had to provide it in 2006. Now we likely see that the same comes nearer. If there is a cold winter, there will be a big scandal", - Stern warns.
The expert noted that earlier Russia could be criticized for that it didn't make potential crisis "hrustalno pure for other world". Now, having stated plans in advance, Russia threw a ball on the Ukrainian half of a field.
"Russians are in enormously strong position. Ukrainians, as well as all others, already heard in March when Russia told Central Asia: of January receive the European prices. Therefore all of us know... that Ukraine is expected by accident", - the expert notes.
"The mentioned already predicted price in 400 dollars for one thousand cubic meter for Ukraine isn't silly according to the European standards - here just Ukraine, with its economy based on gas, won't be able simply to pay it, and it is expected by the most hard blow", - Johnathan Stern speaks, reports "Radio Freedom".
He also considers that the chief Ukrainian politicians of it as if don't understand. "The prime minister - the minister Yulia Timoshenko and the President Victor Yushchenko already are engaged in maneuvers, preparing for presidential election at the end of 2009 - at the beginning of 2010.Therefore gas use to dump fault on the opponent for a failure. "In these negotiations (with Russia) she wants to look firm with Russians, and he wants to look that who is capable to agree with Russians, but she spoils everything", - Stern considers.
"From Tymoshenko we still heard a heap of nonsense on кшалт "To us the five-year transition period is necessary, the long-term contract" is necessary to us. And any understanding of that already everything, hello, arrived", - Stern told.
"And when in September we are (Europeans) and they (the Ukrainian heads) we will return from holidays, there will be three months. And it is not so big term to conclude completely new agreement on doubling of the prices", - the British expert added.
Meanwhile on Tuesday the President Victor Yushchenko, having visited on a visit Austria, I assured of Vienna that Ukraine won't bring Europe with transit energy carriers. His Austrian colleague Gaynts Fischer in reply politely called Ukraine "very reliable partner" in implementation of transit of energy carriers on its territory.