Moscow doesn't trust tears

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Historically it developed that Ukraine does many things with caution on east neighbor. Well or it is bad - to judge it to the following generations. And our contemporaries should act within circumstances. For this reason always actual there is a question of the relation of Russia to Ukraine.

One of the most discussed subjects of the Russian policy still - whether the new president Medvedev will realize Putin's plan or nevertheless will try to become the independent politician. In this context us change or preservation of positions concerning our country especially interests. As though we didn't aspire to Europe where were going to enter, need good-neighbourhood русско - nobody cancelled the Ukrainian relations.

Chess set

From the point of view of geopolitics about need of Ukraine for Russia accurately and clearly Zbignev Bzhezinsky in the book "Big Chessboard" wrote. The one who owns the center of Europe, receives control in all region. Ukraine in this case is хартленд (heartland), the earth control on which furnishes the clue to control over the much bigger territory. To let out this region from the sphere of the influence - not the best decision. Some experts note that for Russia such vectors of foreign policy as Pacific, Central Asian and Caucasian, and Ukrainian is supposedly anywhere now are main won't get to. But, nevertheless, presence of the Russian factor at all spheres of activity of Ukraine should be noticed.

Aspects of influence and cooperation of the states now change more and more. Voyenno - political decisions are forced out economic and cultural. The geoeconomy and geoculture gradually come to the forefront. In this case Ukraine is, for example, the market for goods of the Russian production. Money - in fact pieces of paper isn't necessary to Russians, - sales markets, attraction of new technologies, cooperation prospects are necessary. In a sociocultural context Ukraine - the second for number of the Russian-speaking population the country. The country relating loyally to Russia. Loyalty would be even higher if the attention on московско - Kiev "opposition" so wasn't focused.

Post-imperial ambitions of Russia face democratic tendencies in the country and lead to search of new forms of their realization. For example, concept of the Russian world. It is not imagined Slavic ocean, not physical capture of nearby territories, and opportunity to unite those who considers itself(himself) as Russians, at level above all borders. And the most effective way of an embodiment of this plan in life - retraction of the neighboring lands in this idea, instead of their capture or control. The Russian politicians began to reflect on image of the state, it is possible even to tell - about advance of a brand of the country. And the first positive results already are: for example, in States the relation of Americans of age group till 35 years to Russia much more positive, than in group after 60.

Too pronounced control over policy of Ukraine isn't necessary to Russia. Sure communications between the states are necessary let and not obvious, but. For example, notorious Black Sea fleet. It is clear that with voyenno - the strategic point of view he doesn't play almost any role. For this moment of the BSF is a symbol. Symbolical presence of military base of other country in the territory of Ukraine automatically does impossible integration of Ukraine into North Atlantic alliance.

Political players

To speak about a post-Putin course of foreign policy of Russia still early enough. In - the first, there passed more very few time from the moment of Dmitry Medvedev's introduction in a position of the president. In - the second, any prerequisites to a shift weren't: the new president didn't declare and hardly will declare, about any being planned radical changes. And in - the third, these changes and have no place to undertake, in view of continuity of views of the president former and the president new. Roy Medvedev, the author of biographies of celebrated personalities, predicted that Putin's portrait from offices of officials anywhere won't get to, nearby will simply hang up Medvedev's portrait. National handymen reacted to future market demand at once. In a network spam "A portrait of the president - invariable attribute for any official or the large head", suggesting to get Dmitry Anatolyevich's photo was multiplied.

Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin not for nothing compare to Peter I:the same gradual and sure leveling of influence of old elite (then - boyars, now - oligarchs), a rate on economy of public sector, army support, investment in industry development, development of the state capitalism (actually market economy in which the leading strategic enterprises are controlled by the state), aspiration to control adjacent territories, and a way not expansion, and their involvement in life of the Russian state. All this remains in force and now. Medvedev didn't do while any startlers, neither positive, nor negative. And though Putin as - that also mentioned that Ukraine is at all the state, Russia nevertheless has to observe norms of decency.

The Kremlin is interested in cooperation with that Ukrainian politician who will maintain rather close relations with Moscow. It is desirable - without change of this candidate in the next years ten. In a today's situation for this role Yulia Timoshenko perfectly approaches. Victor Yanukovych whom Russia supported during the last presidential election, now stays in too quiet state. And here for Yulia Vladimirovna the question of the Russian relationship and demonstration of the positive relation to Moscow is rather important. The similar behavior will allow it to approve the positions and to win Hugo's electorate - the East of Ukraine. If it works well, Ukraine will receive the politician whom support on both sides of Dnepr and who is able to consolidate the state.

Already openly speak about Tymoshenko and Medvedchuk's rapprochement. Two opponents a few years ago working in opposite camps, now derive mutual benefit from cooperation. Victor Medvedchuk got real chance to return to big-time Ukrainian politics, instead of secretly to advise political forces. And Yulia Timoshenko builds bridges to the Kremlin. Kumovstvo in scales of Ukraine not actually. Now larger trumps are used. The one who will manage to seize them, in a year and will occupy the building on Bank, without having lost powers that is possible in case of Constitution change. Victor Medvedchuk is connected by related communications both with Vladimir Putin, and with Dmitry Medvedev. And to resolve the issues "through the and with the" always it is much more effective.

What we have as a result? At first sight - absolutely adequate relations both from Russian, and from the Ukrainian politicians.Why then Ukrainians separate themselves from Russians - Slavs more and more? Perhaps in vain two eyelids impose us an image of Ukraine as the girl scolded by Moscow? "Our everything" Taras Shevchenko was for the time and on - to the is right, but it is time to move to a new qualitative level of cooperation. While in society there lives the steady and indestructible myth about the harmful Russian and the offended Ukrainian, it will be difficult to resolve issues all: both to Putin, and Medvedev, both Yanukovych, and Tymoshenko. The modern policy needs to be built now, instead of to look for the reasons of failures in the past. And all conditions for successful construction are available.


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