This week Russia got the fresh Concept of the foreign policy which some sections directly concern also Ukraine.
The third president of Russia gradually continues to get used to a part of the host of the Kremlin, though with caution on the White house of the government of Putin. On July 15 it submitted the new concept of foreign policy of Russia on court of the Russian diplomatic corps. It represented it during the keynote speech in the ministry building. To listen to Medvedev, plenipotentiaries of the country from all over the world gathered.
According to observers, style of performance of Medvedev was, if I may say so, "Putin", that is aggressive and energetic. However, as well as the Concept which succeeded Putin eight-year prescription. The management urges the envoys to reject more rigid pressure on attempts to infringe upon interests of Russia.
The third head of the Russian Federation I began the speech with words: "Russia really got stronger and is capable to assume big responsibility for the solution of problems and regional, and global scale", letting know, therefore, that it is time for ambassadors to use, at last, already fruits of economic blossoming of Russia and to work without thinking about the center and with bigger independence.
As one of examples of negative tendencies against which it is necessary to fight Kremlin the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Dmitry Medvedev called "attempts to expose theses about "civilizing, liberating mission" fascists and their helpers". The hint is clear? Final chord to these words news about creation in structure of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Agency on affairs of the CIS sounded.
After official part of "presentation" the part closed during which the head concretized new vectors of activity began. Its participants with an enviable regularity repeated the word "aggression".
No, an occasion not to "run"
What interesting to us it is possible to take out from the text of the document? Ukraine is one of four CIS countries mentioned in the Concept. Those who in a subject, can guess straight off that Kiev, and also Tbilisi remembered in a negative form "candidates for the introduction for NATO", say, that PDCh ("Russia keeps the negative relation to NATO expansion, in particular to plans of admission to membership of Alliance of Ukraine and Georgia") isn't necessary to you.By the way, during the closed part Medvedev called the reason of necessary aggression on open spaces of the CIS - that Americans didn't squeeze out.
Such problem definition before the Russian diplomacy already now has to stir up the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. And a question here not in a consequence of Americans or still someone - often Russians see what actually isn't present. The matter is that not far off - extension of the Big contract with the Russian Federation. Besides, over Bank and the Grushevsky street prevails a problem-2017, postponement in which long box is fraught with big difficulties in medium-term prospect.
Rather bigger aggression about which the owner of the Kremlin asked, to Kiev should expecting strengthening and without that strong diplomatic pressure from the Russian Federation on all fronts: Famine-Genocide, the Black Sea fleet, delimitation of sea borders, language question - yes you never know?. The first signs, by the way, already "arrived": next day after Medvedev's performance before ambassadors the Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov urged Ukraine to observe all provisions of the Big contract. And this with the fact that domestic diplomats already tens times sent notes of protest to the Russian colleagues in connection with violations of the treaty of friendship and cooperation just Moscow. Didn't pass also days as the Russian Foreign Ministry again stated claims to Ukraine - now in connection with withdrawal by our customs officers of the finished shooting material at the Russian journalists. And after all at all doesn't excite our neighbors that journalists didn't work at all to address in the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for accreditation and, therefore, at all had no right to work at the territory of Ukraine … It turns out, for the Russian diplomacy now the main thing - to find reasons for "aggression" (unfortunately, at this way of maintaining foreign policy such occasions arise with unenviable constancy). And among them, by the way, favourite the skate of Russians - the relation Ukraine - NATO and aspiration of our country to receive PDCh. Here and here Russians already managed "to be noted": they considered passing in the Crimea joint peacekeeping doctrines of the Ukrainian fleet and NATO forces "anti-Russian".
Well and, of course, where without gas. Appeals, ultimatums and direct threats to raise the prices of natural gas will proceed further, and their tonality will become tougher only. At the same time, obviously, the direct military conflict between Russia and Ukraine it isn't necessary to wait - after all gas transit to Europe (and our pipe - while only for the Russian Federation, whatever one may do) in that case will stop.
"This sovereign right of the state - to enter such things in documents of the state value, including the concept of foreign policy, - Natalia Shapovalova, the political analyst, the expert on foreign policy and the European integration of the International center of perspective researches notes. - We need to predict how this concept can be implemented, what instruments of influence Russia has, and, respectively, to prepare for it".
And how to Ukraine to react to external changes? In - the first to consider each step, anyway infringing on interests of Russia. It at all doesn't mean refusal of actions in general, on the contrary, it will be just necessary to foresee in advance reaction of Moscow and preventivno to prepare symmetric diplomatic measures. In - the second to resist to information attack from the outside, the state should employ professionals in the sphere of masses - communications, instead of to give grants and funds on a kickback to bureaucrats. Otherwise the idea of the accession to NATO will simply lose during promised by our prime minister to Moscow of a referendum on Alliance. And consequences of it will be rather gloomy - we on ten years will distance the europrospect. And while a top - players of a domestic politicum of it won't understand and won't unite for attack reflection from the outside, Ukraine will permanently suffer discomfort from - beyond Russia of war launched against it. And the first step to Europe and the answer to ill-wishers it becomes model - indicative preparation for Euro-2012.
For now instead of Kiev Washington reacted, having declared that Russia has no right to vote at the decision NATO countries when and what state "to connect" to the Plan of action for membership in Alliance. Besides, you shouldn't forget that both candidates for U.S. president declared continuity of "the Ukrainian vector" American foreign policy.
Interestingly, as Paris, the long-term friend of Moscow and its main partner in Western Europe in which - that eyelids I reacted negatively, having offered Putin (in the final chapter of the Concept it is noted that the government of the Russian Federation) goes in for foreign policyto stop blackmail of Kiev.
So, Pierre Lelouch, ex-the PA President of NATO declared: "I belong to those who considers that the European Union, Europeans, generally, very cool treated Ukraine. They postponed a power question, meeting the Russian gas interests".
In this context there is a wish to remember one of the priorities of the Russian Federation entered in the document.It sounds as "finishing before logical end is international - legal registration of frontier of the Russian Federation, and also borders of sea spaces". It is thought, the Russian sea base isn't entered in any way in this thesis.
However to 2017-го, year of a conclusion of the BSF from Sevastopol, still there is a lot of time. It is possible to correct everything …
For the rest the Concept of foreign policy of the Russian Federation reflects change of global priorities of the Russian diplomacy. In particular, in it it is noted that "The West lost monopoly for globalization processes" and that the Russian Federation achieved "formation of multipolar system of the international relations". Extensively in the new Concept, the observer Mikhail Zygar writes, need of development of the relations with such the countries as India, China and Brazil is registered. And this with the fact that the Russian Federation suggests Europe to build new system of collective security, having sent to OSCE ash heap of history.
For Ukraine the Euroasian reorientation of the Northern neighbor shouldn't seem strange. Intensive formation of the same Shanghai organization of cooperation - a peculiar antagonist for NATO the main players in which act as the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation is now observed. Yes, and about the observer in SCO Iran which, however, in the present Concept was mentioned casually, you shouldn't forget. This organization should be considered in a context of opposition to increase of influence of the USA in Eurasia.
From these prerequisites follows also different positions of members of SCO to NATO and EU, those structures where Ukraine so seeks to get. If with the European Union as the favorable partner, "shankhayets" try to increase cooperation, to Alliance at them the relation, frankly speaking, the nevazhnetsky.
And to consider similar nuance in the intercourses with China, the most fast-growing in the economic plan the world state, it is necessary for Ukrainians already now. While it should be noted that our elite pays to east vector of diplomatic relations not enough attention.
Global interest, Olga Sbitneva, the expert of the Kiev institute of problems of management of Gorshenin which Ukraine can make for China writes, consists in opportunity to weaken Russia. And it needs to be considered. It needs to be used. For this reason the People's Republic of China also isn't interested that Ukraine was the member Evrazes, NATO or, for example, ODKB. While its accession to EU is quite favorable factor.
Generally and as a whole it is possible to draw a conclusion that in the next years before domestic diplomacy there are new foreign policy calls which demand fresh and system approach, instead of cavalry swoops in the separate directions. And the considerable share of responsibility in improvement of quality of the Ukrainian diplomacy lies and on the top management of the country which has to, in - the first, to give the Ministry of Foreign Affairs accurate priorities of work, without distracting on not basic (though too important) the direction like the international recognition of the Holodomor; and in - the second to make the basic decision on attraction to dialogue during the critical periods российско - the Ukrainian relations of the third parties as to cope alone with more and more aggressive Russia ignoring even own obligations for non-interference to internal affairs of Ukraine (according to the Budapest memorandum) our country in a present state and at present political fight it will be incredibly difficult.