Intrigue of the Kiev elections

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This year May Kiev is filled not only traditional blossoming chestnuts, but also a surplus бигбордов with images of applicants for a chair of the mayor.

At each intersection carefully retouched faces of the Ukrainian politicians and the businessmen known and not really tenderly smile to inhabitants of Kiev and guests of the capital.

In spite of the fact that already from the very beginning of election campaign of very few people doubts results, early elections of the mayor of Kiev became severe need. Not only to the people, but also usually indifferent politicians, probably, bothered to observe the gone too far Kiev power and the lawlessness created by it - illegal sale of the land plots, reading off scale corruption. Having fallen into euphoria of permissiveness, Chernovetsky and the company decided that it forever. Early elections of the mayor reminded them of fragility of political powers. Nevertheless, in the absence of the single candidate from ruling coalition, Chernovetsky's victory, seemingly, is the most probable.

For the initiator of early elections - Yulia Timoshenko - the similar course is, seemingly, aimed at creation of system of counterbalances in the Kiev power, and at all on a mayor chair for BYuT. It is interesting that the candidate from BYuT Oleksandr Turchynov lately strongly rose in a rating of potential mayors of Kiev. The last sociological polls show that inhabitants of Kiev give bigger preference to Turchynov, than to the same Klitschko or Pilipishin, thus, bringing him to the second place after Chernovetsky. That is if elections passed in two rounds, Turchynov could make the serious competition to the acting mayor of Kiev. But also in a present election system BYuT have all bases to count on essential electoral dividends. As they say, that general who allows to relax to the soldiers is bad. The Kiev campaign is extremely important for BYuT from the point of view of electorate mobilization in the light of the forthcoming political fights.

Position of the mayor of Kiev - a resource serious, but not self-sufficient. The majority of the "monetary" questions connected with municipal property and the land relations, it is impossible to solve without "the" majority in Kiyevsoveta.It means that and abuses the mayor receives almost unlimited freedom of action in case mayor powers are combined with Kiyevsovet's opportunities. That is as it occurs in Kiev today. However the majority in Kiyevsoveta, not under control to the mayor, will significantly limit his potential.

For this reason, realizing Chernovetsky's real chances again to become the mayor of the capital, participants of electoral process bent efforts to fight for places in Kiyevsoveta. Especially as the leader of that force who will receive the majority in a representative body, can apply for a post of the secretary.

Today experts predict that the majority in Kiyevsoveta will form Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc, so, the candidate from BYuT, present vice-the prime minister Turchynov has the greatest chances to receive a post of the secretary of the City Council. The second place by results of a choice of the mayor considerably increases this probability.

Thus election campaign of Oleksandr Turchynov in Kiev is apparently calculated on increase in popularity of BYuT in the capital. Unlike other campaigns - scandalous, mass - propaganda for Turchynov has quiet, intelligent, European character. Besides, to avoid charges of administrative resource use, at the beginning of April Turchynov went on leave for the period of election campaign and actively was engaged in preparation for elections. By the way, to follow its example he advised also to other candidates in mayors, however opponents didn't want to take similar steps for obvious reasons.

Apparently, the election program of Turchynov is initially focused on thinking people. Experts note that it is the most difficult group in the electoral plan, but in too time and the most perspective. As a rule, such people make the choice is comprehended and, having made the decision, seldom change the views. So, having made the decision to give the vote for Turchynov, they become stable supporters of BYuT.

During campaign Turchynov gives preference to live communication with inhabitants of Kiev, instead of advertizing on television. It allows to learn, than there live today inhabitants of the capital, and also gives much more chances to receive votes on elections. And, of course, nonparticipation of the candidate from BYuT in traditional "sneer company" and watering by dirt of other candidates well influences image of the block that won't fail to be reflected in number of deputies in Kiyevsoveta.

However, for Turchynov the second place becomes the real break.Still a month ago favourites and candidates for the second place experts called Vitaly Klitschko, Alexander Omelchenko and Nikolay Katerinchuk. Same confirmed also sociological polls. However today these data seriously changed in favor of the candidate from BYuT. Its rating on the average grew from 4% to 16%, that is four times.

Nevertheless, sociologists and analysts warn to draw hasty conclusions on the basis of only sociological ratings. As a rule, candidates do decisive breakthrough in the last two weeks of election campaign. Plus sociologists can't consider a voice so-called "sociological guerrillas", avoiding openly to speak about the sympathies. In the next Poland sociologists spoke about 4% at the politician Anzhey Lepper - he showed result in 12%. On elections of 2006 anybody seriously didn't speak about L. Chernovetsky's victory. It at all didn't consider among favourites. And he won! In 2007 the majority of sociologists couldn't predict result of BYuT - as a rule, spoke about 20% of voices of this Blok. Yulia Timoshenko showed result in 30%. The same history can repeat and in a case with Turchinov.

It isn't excluded that we will become witnesses of appearance of the single candidate from democratic forces. Turchynov if his rating, of course, continues to grow can become this candidate.

Thus, today it is possible to state surely: political positions of the acting mayor reeled. And even if Chernovetsky again becomes the mayor of Kiev, he seriously risks to receive in opponents self-assured political force - BYuT - in the form of the majority in Kiyevsovete and Kiyevsovet's secretary of Oleksandr Turchynov. Anyway, if actions of the mayor are counterbalanced by Kiyevsovet, the capital of Ukraine from it only will win.


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