The analysis of positions and condition of the main political players before elections (Agency of modeling of situations)

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Political strategists of team of Balogi - Yushchenko promise to the public holding snap parliamentary elections already on December 12. With what there are to this date main political players?

First of all, is of interest how the President of Ukraine will construct the political communication: how he will explain disintegration of the democratic coalition and Tymoshenko's repeated resignation, on what party or the block it will rely how his political strategists will motivate own voter and the most important - what his (voter) is seen by Yushchenko's team?

The most critical motivation of the voters who mobilized all the forces and have voted for Yushchenko in 2004, moreover - protected the voices on the maydanakh, - became the reason of extraordinary high rates of falling of a rating of trust for Victor Yushchenko further. Every year, with each new government and the new coalition the President Yushchenko significantly lost a rating not only popularity, but even a consequence.

And here, new crisis managers of the joint venture made the strategic decision: Yushchenko won't be able to be re-elected for the second term if is and to lean on those electoral groups and those technologies which already once brought it to power further. From this point Yushchenko relied on search of new ways of communication with absolutely others electoral resources.

However with what all - Yushchenko will go to elections? "The uniform center", undoubtedly, becomes an administrative resource synonym. However whether there will be able to be an administrative resource in present realities so effective, how in previous years? Really governors and heads of district administrations will be able to bring the undeceived voter on sites and to force to vote at all per lot the authorities in classical understanding, and for its visibility?

In this context one example is indicative. In all staffs: the leader of the Our Ukraine block V. Yushchenko in 2002, the candidate for president Yushchenko in 2004, the NUNS pro-presidential block in 2006 - V. Yushchenko was indisputable authority. Political strategists of that time even entered the special term - Yushchenko's Messianizm.Whom now is Yushchenko for technologists of team of Balogi, for Kislinsky, Stavniychuk, Bogatyreva, Gavrish - the same authority and the Messiah, how in due time for Bezsmertny, Poroshenko, Tretyakov, Zhvaniya, Chervonenko? It is unlikely. The analysis of information streams of the joint venture for the last month suffices - Yushchenko together with all regular and non-staff speakers of the joint venture and ETs turned into the ordinary offtaker of strategic and tactical schemes...

I will afford, probably, seditious thought. Despite all those difficulties which were endured by Yushchenko during election campaign, on obvious and radical deterioration of its health - the power came to the present President easily. He hadn't to fight for the 100-th percent, to calculate step by step all the actions and the words, to defend the correctness with foam at a mouth, to struggle with allies and to convince opponents.

It came to political history actually from anywhere - won parliamentary elections of 2002 - and couldn't protect the victory, won presidential campaign - and didn't manage to consolidate thus very powerful and progressive team of professionals. So only the charismatic politician is able to afford to behave.

Tymoshenko has other charisma. It fell and rose, it showed extraordinary thirst of life and so passionate aspiration to the power.

Today both of these leaders leave to a barrier, for which - absolutely different ways of development of Ukraine. Who is guilty in disorder so-called "the democratic coalition" what will be after the termination of 10-day term where the Ukrainian society after December, 2008 or November 2009 will go?

Who is guilty?

Coalition disorder - process objective. How political communication of the last months was based, convinced any, even the most naive observers that Yushchenko and Tymoshenko's official divorce will take place in the fall. However, as it appeared, present events appeared a frank surprise personally for the President. All this time he lived in the realities or constructed specially for it in which there is a national honoring and political humility of opponents, but there is no place to ambitions of allies.

Sounding any statements of the technologists for Tymoshenko's artful essence and her Napoleonic plans, Yushchenko to the last I believed that the initiative remains behind him. Therefore the ghost of impeachment and final trimming of its power became for it revelation.However who - who, and precisely realized Baloga what result of all of that "new strategy of political communication" which his technologists from the first day of repeated premiership of Tymoshenko started building will be.

The only condition in this scheme - coalition reformatting without elections. As for anybody not a secret that the team of Balogi isn't strong in public policy - neither the Krill, nor Kislinsky, directly political strategists didn't win in due time any direct elections.

Whether Tymoshenko was interested in coalition preservation? It is obvious that it maintained viability of this political organism until it was necessary for it. On - visible, Tymoshenko also is now ready to return to an old format of the coalition, but... on other conditions. Obviously, it really entered long-term campaign during which will add only in rigidity of rhetoric with opponents, in persistence and uncompromising stand of communication with allies. Whereas Yushchenko's team frankly allowed false start.

What to do?

Scenarios of development of a situation there can be a set. However there are serious doubts that Yushchenko will want and will be able to dismiss parliament for the second time. And at all because he has nothing to go on elections, but because this time among his opponents political forces, which obviously and objectively stronger than a president's team - as totally, and everyone separately.

"Thin games of politics" the joint venture with PR appeared in actual fact no more than the current consultations of groups of influence. Yanukovych at the first opportunity went beyond these consultations, obviously, without wishing to be the passive offtaker of schemes of Kolesnikov - Balogi. Bogatyreva's exception, disagreements with Kolesnikov's group - all this, actually, doesn't become the prerequisite to disorder of PR or Akhmetov's withdrawal from it.

PR, undoubtedly, won't be the strategic ally of BYuT it it isn't favorable neither to Yanukovych, nor Tymoshenko. However with the same confidence it is possible to say that PR doesn't become the ETs satellite, counting on active support of group of Akhmetov in development of party structures in the east of Ukraine.

The president Yushchenko and "edinotsentristsky" team of Balogi today any more don't control even NUNS fraction, and the National Self-defense group of Yu.Lutsenko separated for a long time from Yushchenko.

The matter is that neither Yushchenko, nor Baloga, especially Kirilenko can't guarantee 90% of deputies of the NUNS present fraction participation in part of lists of any parties through passage or blocks.

The President can leave and his personal voter who at the same time is the ideological voter of NRU, UNP, CDU and so forth. Then leaders of these parties behind whom there are a real system of the local organizations and electoral niches, too will leave for the voters.

Therefore it is possible not to doubt that within 10 days which are taken away on process of disbandment of the majority, the situation will significantly change, and the former coalition the coalition can be kept at least at formal level.

Kamo грядеши?

To presidential election of 2004 we wrote that if it will be possible to position Party of Regions not as spokesman of interests east financially - industrial group (FPG) and as the conductor of requirements of business and pragmatic policy as a whole is becomes a basis for gradual (but rather fast - for three - four years) formations of two-party system. Today, in 4 years after the made forecast, BYuT and PR position - forces, comparable on the power and a pragmatism - finally settled.

Statements of some party figures in the winter of 2006 confirmed the tendency predicted by us in 2005: Ukraine steadily moves can not to classical, but nevertheless to the two-party political and imperious scheme, let and the, very confused, difficult and ambiguous ways. Two forces - Party of Regions and Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc become the basic ideologoobrazuyushchy centers of two imperious poles gradually.

The deputy head of PR fraction M. Chechetov in February, 2007 claimed: "... The barrier will be higher, the relyefny the opposition kernel will look. At two-party system even the lost will have 48-49%. It is enough to raise a barrier to 10% - and everything, there will be two sharks - BYuT and Party of Regions, and at them the small group of little small fishes like "our Ukraine" will float: where BYuT крутанется, there and WELL will float. If WELL enters the block with BYuT, will be able to count on positions of the senior assistants to secretaries".

And from the vice-of that time - the prime minister A. Klyuev the modest assumption was heard that "on the following elections can happen that the Party of Regions will be in opposition, and BYuT can be at the power. Can happen so that there will be a two-party system".

However actually the politicum will continue fight - at least for preservation of an available electoral resource that at the beginning of 2011 not to come to be even for 3% a barrier. Therefore, parties will provoke society - first of all, actively working in information space, creating and destroying technological myths.

By 2009 and really the parity of forces can be reached, and in Ukraine - the fact to the following parliamentary elections is formed two-party (or, following the terminology offered by the political scientist D. Vydrin, two-block) political system. And, strangely enough, it can be embodied in quite civilized form - not as two the sworn enemies who have at last defined camp who, according to forecasts of some Russian experts, will immediately move "a wall on a wall" at final registration and as rather balanced system with already acquired experience of joint decision-making and finding of mutual benefit.

Thus, when still nobody dismissed "our Ukraine" when the rating of the President wasn't so low, we said that the political world in Ukraine becomes bipolar. In this world two main centers of influence are formed, and in any of them there is no place to methods of political communication of Yushchenko.

Today we see that this forecast started being carried out. We warn that such system doesn't suit political mentality of the Ukrainian. For this reason we call political forces in order to avoid implementation of cynical political strategy schemes of capture of the power which provide deepening of ideological split of society, to reduce the value of presidential election and to strengthen political reform in Ukraine.

After all today there is an alternative reality. At present deals of BYuT quite on forces to find motivation for the majority of deputies of parliament and to vote radical change of rules of the game in the political market. It is a question of banal increase (a way even overcomings of the predicted veto of the President) an electoral threshold. It means that the next morning after Yushchenko's such decision will wake up in other reality in which there will be no place neither to it, nor its methods of political communication.


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