In 2017 tension will grow in society and with a high probability can entail a new wave of political turbulence. In parliament there is no effective coalition, structures of the power have wallowed in political corruption and intra clan intrigues for access to financial streams. Petro Poroshenko was left without political alliesand in the activity leans only on the immediate business environment, law enforcement agencies and situational oligarchical consensus. The vast majority of political players in Ukraine doesn't like the scenario according to which Poroshenko wants to be at the same time a president, the political arbitrator and the businessman No. 1. Therefore in a new political season process of association of wide opposition and separate political forces which feel the general political threat from Poroshenko's activity can begin. Analysts of the International Center of Perspective Researches (ICPR) have allocated the main subject lines of political struggle "all against all" in 2017.
1. Opposition "power–Oppositional block"
Novinsky's business is not only continuation of the old corporate conflict with Poroshenko, but also the certificate that the Presidential Administration is ready to go for escalation with other system players. Removal of parliamentary immunity from Vadim Novinsky can push the separate Oppositional block to more active actions, including - to formation of situational alliances with other players, for example, by Yulia Tymoshenko against the president. It is indicative that a part of Batkivshchyna fraction hasn't voted for removal of parliamentary immunity from Vadim Novinsky.
2. Opposition "power–the offended oligarchs, bankers and businessmen"
In the course of fight for access to the state monopolies and financial resources the environment of the president has solved a number of the corporate conflicts with other players. Case against Alexander Onishchenko during which the deputy - the fugitive threatens to publish a corruption compromising evidence on Poroshenko and his immediate environment is the most known. Thus, Onishchenko's business shows scales of political corruption in the government and parliament.At the same time, within the last months 2016 under walls of the NBU a number of the paid meetings with the requirement of resignation of the chairman of National Bank Valeria Hontareva which has closed a number of the banks belonging to the famous businessmen has been organized. In this context it is also worth adding and activity of Savik Shuster whose TV channel actively covered protest actions against Hontareva and the power in general.
3. Opposition in the area of "old elite–new projects"
Active participation in the political competition in a new season will approve the new political projects "National Case" of Beletsky, Rabinovich's "Life" - Murayeva, "Movement of new forces" of Saakashvili, and also, perhaps, and Nadezhda Savchenko. The above-stated projects will compete for the political niche and will try to mobilize the voter at the expense of criticism of actions of the power and parliamentary opposition. Also in the political environment rumors about activization of the socialist, left-wing parties, organizations and movements which plan to unite in the uniform block go.
4. Opposition between anti-corruption bodies for the line "NABU–SAP–NAZK–GPU"
Except traditional fight between old and new anti-corruption bodies, recently the excessive political conflictness has begun to be shown and between new institutes–NABU, NAZK and SAP. The management of NABU prepares for a campaign in big-time politics as Artem Sytnik and Gizo Uglava are political partners of Saakashvili. They open obviously unpromising affairs which rather often have politically motivated and piarny character. It is one of the main reasons of opposition between new anti-corruption bodies. In 2017 there is a high probability that the political management of NABU can accuse the power of unwillingness to fight against corruption, to resign and join Saakashvili's movement.
5. Latent opposition between the PPB and NF
Between the main partners in the coalition are observed business - contradictions concerning subjects to privatization, tenders in the defensive industry, the state orders итд. The Presidential Administration thinks also how to minimize Avakov's influence on law enforcement agencies. Systematically in media information fight against Yatsenyuk, Pashinsky, Turchynov and other leaders is started by NF.
6.Fight between groups of influence in a presidential environment
Recently in a presidential environment political struggle between various groups of influence which represent business, security officers, personnel bureaucrats and personal friends of the president escalates. Except intrigues and fight of compromising evidences for access to "a political body of the president", certain players work on dismissing Vladimir Groysman. Fight in a presidential environment for resources and monopolies can lead to strain of relations with Groysman's group. In 2017 there are risks that the current prime minister - the minister, understanding political toxicity of the president, will decide to go to independent political swimming.
The new political season promises to become very conflictual. Race for power will amplify. The political uncertainty is in how the situation in the country will develop, can force oligarchs to make the basic decision concerning development of new rules of the game and search of possible alternatives to the present country leaders. However in present conditions the main problem of political shareholders is that a possible alternative of Poroshenko which would suit all players no. Therefore development of new oligarchical consensus on possible parameters of coexistence of the power and large business can become more active only after understanding of how will proceed российско - the western geopolitical opposition.
In this regard in narrow circles of political establishment more and more urgent is a discourse concerning the beginning of process of system constitutional reform which will provide a reorganization of the state and power institutes.
Anatoly Oktisyuk, "Apostrophe"